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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina New Yuan Loans fell to -340B in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
China New Yuan Loans fell to -340B in July 2026, released August 2026, down 1,950B from June's 1,610B reading. The reading missed the 45B consensus by 385B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1,377.5B. Over the past 3 months, New Yuan Loans averaged 1,065B, vs 1,717.5B in the prior 3-month window. New Yuan Loans is now the lowest in 28 months.
Latest Release
-340
Actual
45
Consensus
1610
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±174.33 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -60
Actual: -340
Error: +280
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CNH | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
New Yuan Loans (China) was reported at -340.00 billion in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 45.00 billion by 385.00 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 1,610.00 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1,020.00 billion, ranging from -340.00 billion to 4,710.00 billion across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 596.67 billion, down from the prior three at 1,866.67 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 1,351.33 billion) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1,470.23 billion). In August readings over the past 3 years, New Yuan Loans has averaged -45.00 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 174.33 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include FDI (Sep 17) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Sep 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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New Yuan Loans - CN
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About New Yuan Loans — China
DEFINITION
New Yuan Loans is a financial indicator that measures the total amount of new loans issued by Chinese banks in a given period of time. This indicator is used to assess the level of credit expansion and economic activity in China, as well as to monitor the effectiveness of monetary policies implemented by the Chinese government. It is a key metric for investors and analysts to understand the state of the Chinese economy and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -340 B, consensus 45 B. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 1,610 B. Before that (May 2026): 520 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.46) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | CN | M2 Money Supply YoY | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 7.55 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Total Social Financing | 1660 | 1410 | 2040 | 1850.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | New Loans | 60 | -340 | 400 | 230.00 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:30 | CN | House Price Index YoY | -3 | -3.2 | -3.1 | -3.10 | Medium |
| 02:00 | CN | Retail Sales YoY | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.63 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Unemployment Rate | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.20 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Industrial Production YoY | 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.95 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Fixed Asset Investment | -7.2 | -6.7 | -7.2 | -7.72 | Medium |