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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina New Yuan Loans climbed to 520B in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
China New Yuan Loans climbed to 520B in May 2026, released June 2026, up 530B from April's -10B reading. The reading missed the 550B consensus by 30B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1,356.67B. Over the past 3 months, New Yuan Loans averaged 1,990B, vs 1,857.5B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 30th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
520
Actual
550
Consensus
-10
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±174.33 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 395
Actual: 520
Error: -125
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | INDEX | Bearish Nikkei 225 | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
New Yuan Loans (China) was reported at 520.00 billion in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 550.00 billion by 30.00 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of -10.00 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 971.67 billion, ranging from -50.00 billion to 4,710.00 billion across 12 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 470.00 billion, down from the prior three at 2,003.33 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 1,290.94 billion) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1,433.44 billion). In June readings over the past 3 years, New Yuan Loans has averaged 696.67 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with Nikkei 225, negatively correlated (Bearish Nikkei 225). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 174.33 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Jun 22) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Jun 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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New Yuan Loans - CN
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About New Yuan Loans — China
DEFINITION
New Yuan Loans is a financial indicator that measures the total amount of new loans issued by Chinese banks in a given period of time. This indicator is used to assess the level of credit expansion and economic activity in China, as well as to monitor the effectiveness of monetary policies implemented by the Chinese government. It is a key metric for investors and analysts to understand the state of the Chinese economy and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 520 B, consensus 550 B. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -10 B. Before that (Mar 2026): 2,990 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.60) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.