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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina New Yuan Loans climbed to 1,610B in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
China New Yuan Loans climbed to 1,610B in June 2026, released July 2026, up 1,090B from May's 520B reading. The reading missed the 2,000B consensus by 390B. New Yuan Loans has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, New Yuan Loans averaged 255B, vs 2,897.5B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 77th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1610
Actual
2000
Consensus
520
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±174.33 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 1,915
Actual: 1,610
Error: +305
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CNH | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
New Yuan Loans (China) was reported at 1,610.00 billion in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2,000.00 billion by 390.00 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 520.00 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 919.17 billion, ranging from -50.00 billion to 4,710.00 billion across 12 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 706.67 billion, down from the prior three at 2,173.33 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 1,250.47 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 1,437.98 billion). In July readings over the past 3 years, New Yuan Loans has averaged 1,993.33 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CNH (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 174.33 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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New Yuan Loans - CN
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About New Yuan Loans — China
DEFINITION
New Yuan Loans is a financial indicator that measures the total amount of new loans issued by Chinese banks in a given period of time. This indicator is used to assess the level of credit expansion and economic activity in China, as well as to monitor the effectiveness of monetary policies implemented by the Chinese government. It is a key metric for investors and analysts to understand the state of the Chinese economy and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 1,610 B, consensus 2,000 B. Prior reading (May 2026): 520 B. Before that (Apr 2026): -10 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CNH (Bullish USD, r=0.41) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | CN | NBS General PMI | 49.3 | 50.6 | 50.4 | 49.85 | Low |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Non Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 50.2 | 50 | 49.50 | Medium |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Manufacturing PMI | 49.2 | 50.3 | 50 | 49.60 | High |