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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Outstanding Loan Growth YoY fell to 5.5% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
China Outstanding Loan Growth YoY fell to 5.5% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 0.1% from April's 5.6% reading. The reading matched the 5.5% consensus. Outstanding Loan Growth YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Outstanding Loan Growth YoY averaged 5.67%, vs 6.18% in the prior 3-month window. Outstanding Loan Growth YoY is now the lowest in 24 months.
Latest Release
5.5
Actual
5.5
Consensus
5.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.08 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 5.45
Actual: 5.5
Error: -0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | INDEX | Bearish Nikkei 225 | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Outstanding Loan Growth YoY (China) was reported at 5.5% in June 2026. This matched the market consensus of 5.5% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 5.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 6.42%, ranging from 5.5% to 7.1% across 14 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 5.7%, down from the prior three at 6.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.5%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.49%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Outstanding Loan Growth YoY has averaged 7.25%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Nikkei 225 (Bearish Nikkei 225). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 14, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Jun 22) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Jun 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Outstanding Loan Growth YoY - CN
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About Outstanding Loan Growth YoY — China
DEFINITION
Outstanding Loan Growth YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the amount of outstanding loans held by a company or financial institution. It provides insight into the growth or decline of a company's loan portfolio, which can be an important factor in evaluating its financial health and performance. A positive growth in outstanding loans can indicate a strong demand for credit and potential for future earnings, while a negative growth may suggest a decrease in lending activity and potential risks for the company. This indicator is commonly used by investors, analysts, and lenders to assess the overall growth and stability of a company's loan portfolio.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 5.5 %, consensus 5.5 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 5.6 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 5.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Nikkei 225 (Bearish Nikkei 225, r=-0.48) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.