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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Outstanding Loan Growth YoY fell to 5.5% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
China Outstanding Loan Growth YoY fell to 5.5% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 0.1% from April's 5.6% reading. The reading matched the 5.5% consensus. Outstanding Loan Growth YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Outstanding Loan Growth YoY averaged 5.67%, vs 6.18% in the prior 3-month window. Outstanding Loan Growth YoY is now the lowest in 24 months.
Latest Release
5.5
Actual
5.5
Consensus
5.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.08 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 5.45
Actual: 5.5
Error: -0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Outstanding Loan Growth YoY (China) was reported at 5.5% in June 2026. This matched the market consensus of 5.5% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 5.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 6.37%, ranging from 5.5% to 7.1% across 13 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 5.7%, down from the prior three at 6.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.48%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.5%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Outstanding Loan Growth YoY has averaged 7.25%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 14, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Exports YoY (Jul 14) and Imports YoY (Jul 14).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Outstanding Loan Growth YoY - CN
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About Outstanding Loan Growth YoY — China
DEFINITION
Outstanding Loan Growth YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the amount of outstanding loans held by a company or financial institution. It provides insight into the growth or decline of a company's loan portfolio, which can be an important factor in evaluating its financial health and performance. A positive growth in outstanding loans can indicate a strong demand for credit and potential for future earnings, while a negative growth may suggest a decrease in lending activity and potential risks for the company. This indicator is commonly used by investors, analysts, and lenders to assess the overall growth and stability of a company's loan portfolio.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 5.5 %, consensus 5.5 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 5.6 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 5.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish USD, r=0.45) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Tuesday, July 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03:00 | CN | Balance of Trade Yuan | 723.98 | 820 | 820.00 | Low | |
| 03:00 | CN | Exports YoY | 19.4 | 18.2 | 15.30 | High | |
| 03:00 | CN | Imports YoY | 27.4 | 24 | 32.35 | High | |
| 03:00 | CN | Balance of Trade | 105.43 | 121 | 90.56 | High | |
| 07:00 | CN | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 07:00 | CN | Total Social Financing | 2030 | 3890 | 3805.00 | Low | |
| 08:00 | CN | New Loans | 520 | 1950 | 1712.50 | Medium | |
| 08:00 | CN | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 08:00 | CN | Total Social Financing | 2030 | 3770 | 3685.00 | Low | |
| 08:00 | CN | M2 Money Supply YoY | 8.6 | 8.5 | 8.30 | Low | |
| Wednesday, July 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:30 | CN | House Price Index YoY | -3.5 | -3.4 | -3.35 | Medium | |
| 02:00 | CN | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.90 | Medium | |
| 02:00 | CN | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 5 | 4.4 | 4.50 | High | |
| 02:00 | CN | Fixed Asset Investment | -4.1 | -4.9 | -4.90 | Medium | |
| 02:00 | CN | Unemployment Rate | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.20 | Low | |
| 02:00 | CN | Industrial Production YoY | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.70 | High | |
| 02:00 | CN | Retail Sales YoY | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 02:00 | CN | Industrial Capacity Utilization | 73.6 | 74 | 74.00 | Low | |
| 02:00 | CN | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 5 | 4.5 | 4.50 | Medium | |
| 02:00 | CN | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.90 | Medium | |