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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Outstanding Loan Growth YoY fell to 5.2% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
China Outstanding Loan Growth YoY fell to 5.2% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.3% from May's 5.5% reading. The reading matched the 5.4% consensus. Outstanding Loan Growth YoY has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Outstanding Loan Growth YoY averaged 5.55%, vs 5.9% in the prior 3-month window. Outstanding Loan Growth YoY is now the lowest in 24 months.
Latest Release
5.2
Actual
5.4
Consensus
5.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.08 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 5.35
Actual: 5.2
Error: +0.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Outstanding Loan Growth YoY (China) was reported at 5.2% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 5.4% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 5.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 6.22%, ranging from 5.2% to 6.9% across 13 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 5.43%, down from the prior three at 6.03%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.53%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.51%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Outstanding Loan Growth YoY has averaged 6.8%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Outstanding Loan Growth YoY - CN
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About Outstanding Loan Growth YoY — China
DEFINITION
Outstanding Loan Growth YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the amount of outstanding loans held by a company or financial institution. It provides insight into the growth or decline of a company's loan portfolio, which can be an important factor in evaluating its financial health and performance. A positive growth in outstanding loans can indicate a strong demand for credit and potential for future earnings, while a negative growth may suggest a decrease in lending activity and potential risks for the company. This indicator is commonly used by investors, analysts, and lenders to assess the overall growth and stability of a company's loan portfolio.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 5.2 %, consensus 5.4 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 5.5 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 5.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | CN | NBS General PMI | 49.3 | 50.6 | 50.4 | 49.85 | Low |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Non Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 50.2 | 50 | 49.50 | Medium |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Manufacturing PMI | 49.2 | 50.3 | 50 | 49.60 | High |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:45 | CN | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 51.7 | 52 | 50.50 | High |