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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Outstanding Loan Growth YoY fell to 4.8% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
China Outstanding Loan Growth YoY fell to 4.8% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.1% from August's 4.9% reading. The reading matched the 4.8% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 5.48%. Over the past 3 months, Outstanding Loan Growth YoY averaged 4.98%, vs 5.43% in the prior 3-month window. Outstanding Loan Growth YoY is now the lowest in 22 months.
Latest Release
4.8
Actual
4.8
Consensus
4.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 4.73
Actual: 4.8
Error: -0.07
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Outstanding Loan Growth YoY (China) was reported at 4.8% in October 2026. This matched the market consensus of 4.8% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 5.64%, ranging from 4.8% to 6.5% across 13 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.83%, down from the prior three at 5.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.61%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.34%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Outstanding Loan Growth YoY has averaged 6.08%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NBS Non Manufacturing PMI (Oct 31) and NBS Manufacturing PMI (Oct 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Outstanding Loan Growth YoY - CN
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About Outstanding Loan Growth YoY — China
DEFINITION
Outstanding Loan Growth YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the amount of outstanding loans held by a company or financial institution. It provides insight into the growth or decline of a company's loan portfolio, which can be an important factor in evaluating its financial health and performance. A positive growth in outstanding loans can indicate a strong demand for credit and potential for future earnings, while a negative growth may suggest a decrease in lending activity and potential risks for the company. This indicator is commonly used by investors, analysts, and lenders to assess the overall growth and stability of a company's loan portfolio.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 4.8 %, consensus 4.8 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 4.9 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 5.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.47) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:45 | CN | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 52.1 | 51.6 | 51.30 | High | |