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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Outstanding Loan Growth YoY fell to 4.9% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
China Outstanding Loan Growth YoY fell to 4.9% in August 2026, released September 2026, down 0.2% from July's 5.1% reading. The reading matched the 5.1% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 5.73%. Over the past 3 months, Outstanding Loan Growth YoY averaged 5.13%, vs 5.63% in the prior 3-month window. Outstanding Loan Growth YoY is now the lowest in 23 months.
Latest Release
4.9
Actual
5.1
Consensus
5.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 5
Actual: 4.9
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Outstanding Loan Growth YoY (China) was reported at 4.9% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 5.1% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 5.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 5.86%, ranging from 4.9% to 6.6% across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 5.07%, down from the prior three at 5.7%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.56%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.37%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Outstanding Loan Growth YoY has averaged 6.73%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include FDI (Sep 17) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Sep 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Outstanding Loan Growth YoY - CN
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About Outstanding Loan Growth YoY — China
DEFINITION
Outstanding Loan Growth YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the amount of outstanding loans held by a company or financial institution. It provides insight into the growth or decline of a company's loan portfolio, which can be an important factor in evaluating its financial health and performance. A positive growth in outstanding loans can indicate a strong demand for credit and potential for future earnings, while a negative growth may suggest a decrease in lending activity and potential risks for the company. This indicator is commonly used by investors, analysts, and lenders to assess the overall growth and stability of a company's loan portfolio.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 4.9 %, consensus 5.1 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 5.1 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 5.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.41) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | CN | M2 Money Supply YoY | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 7.55 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Total Social Financing | 1660 | 1410 | 2040 | 1850.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | New Loans | 60 | -340 | 400 | 230.00 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:30 | CN | House Price Index YoY | -3 | -3.2 | -3.1 | -3.10 | Medium |
| 02:00 | CN | Retail Sales YoY | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.63 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Unemployment Rate | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.20 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Industrial Production YoY | 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.95 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Fixed Asset Investment | -7.2 | -6.7 | -7.2 | -7.72 | Medium |