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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Prime Rate held to 3.0% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
China Prime Rate held to 3.0% in August 2026. The reading matched the 3.0% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 0.5%. Over the past 3 months, Prime Rate averaged 3.0%, vs 3.0% in the prior 3-month window. Prime Rate is now the lowest in 18 months.
Latest Release
3
Actual
3
Consensus
3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 3
Actual: 3
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CNY | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Prime Rate (China) was reported at 3% in August 2026. This matched the market consensus of 3% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3%, ranging from 3% to 3% across 12 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3%, unchanged from the prior three. Volatility over the past year (σ 0%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.16%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CNY, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 21, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include FDI (Sep 17) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Sep 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Prime Rate - CN
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About Prime Rate — China
DEFINITION
The Prime Rate is a key financial indicator used by banks to determine the interest rates they charge on loans and credit products. It is the lowest rate at which banks are willing to lend money to their most creditworthy customers, such as large corporations and government entities. The Prime Rate is influenced by various economic factors and is often used as a benchmark for other interest rates in the market. As such, it is an important indicator for businesses and consumers to monitor when making financial decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 3 %, consensus 3 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 3 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | CN | M2 Money Supply YoY | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 7.55 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Total Social Financing | 1660 | 1410 | 2040 | 1850.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | New Loans | 60 | -340 | 400 | 230.00 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:30 | CN | House Price Index YoY | -3 | -3.2 | -3.1 | -3.10 | Medium |
| 02:00 | CN | Retail Sales YoY | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.63 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Unemployment Rate | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.20 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Industrial Production YoY | 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.95 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Fixed Asset Investment | -7.2 | -6.7 | -7.2 | -7.72 | Medium |