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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Prime Rate held to 3.0% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
China Prime Rate held to 3.0% in July 2026. The reading matched the 3.0% consensus. Over the past 3 months, Prime Rate averaged 3.0%, vs 3.0% in the prior 3-month window. Prime Rate is now the lowest in 17 months.
Latest Release
3
Actual
3
Consensus
3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 3
Actual: 3
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CNY | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Prime Rate (China) was reported at 3% in July 2026. This matched the market consensus of 3% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.04%, ranging from 3% to 3.5% across 12 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3%, unchanged from the prior three. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.14%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.05%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CNY, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Prime Rate - CN
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About Prime Rate — China
DEFINITION
The Prime Rate is a key financial indicator used by banks to determine the interest rates they charge on loans and credit products. It is the lowest rate at which banks are willing to lend money to their most creditworthy customers, such as large corporations and government entities. The Prime Rate is influenced by various economic factors and is often used as a benchmark for other interest rates in the market. As such, it is an important indicator for businesses and consumers to monitor when making financial decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 3 %, consensus 3 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 3 %. Before that (May 2026): 3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | CN | NBS General PMI | 49.3 | 50.6 | 50.4 | 49.85 | Low |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Non Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 50.2 | 50 | 49.50 | Medium |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Manufacturing PMI | 49.2 | 50.3 | 50 | 49.60 | High |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:45 | CN | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 51.7 | 52 | 50.50 | High |