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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Producer Price Index YoY climbed to 3.9% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
China Producer Price Index YoY climbed to 3.9% in May 2026, released June 2026, up 1.1% from April's 2.8% reading. The reading matched the 3.9% consensus. Producer Price Index YoY has now risen for 10 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index YoY averaged 1.65%, vs -1.4% in the prior 3-month window. Producer Price Index YoY is now the highest in 16 months.
Latest Release
3.9
Actual
3.9
Consensus
2.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.16 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 3.9
Actual: 3.9
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index YoY (China) was reported at 3.9% in June 2026. This matched the market consensus of 3.9% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -1.66%, ranging from -3.6% to 3.9% across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.53%, up from the prior three at -2.13%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CNH (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.16%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Jun 22) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Jun 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Producer Price Index YoY - CN
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About Producer Price Index YoY — China
DEFINITION
China's Producer Price Index YoY rose to 3.900% in June, matching estimates and accelerating from May's 2.800%. This marks a continued expansion in producer inflation after months of negative readings earlier in 2026. Market focus now shifts to upcoming economic data for further insight into inflation trends and policy direction. Updated 6/10/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 3.9 %, consensus 3.9 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 2.8 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 0.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.