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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Producer Price Index YoY climbed to 5.0% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
China Producer Price Index YoY climbed to 5.0% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 1.2% from August's 3.8% reading. The print exceeded the 4.5% consensus by 0.5%. Producer Price Index YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index YoY averaged 3.65%, vs 3.35% in the prior 3-month window. Producer Price Index YoY is now the highest in 20 months.
Latest Release
5
Actual
4.5
Consensus
3.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.22 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 4.45
Actual: 5
Error: -0.55
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index YoY (China) was reported at 5% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 4.5% by 0.5%. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.23%, ranging from -2.2% to 5% across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 4.1%, up from the prior three at 0.53%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.87%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.53%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.23%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NBS Non Manufacturing PMI (Oct 31) and NBS Manufacturing PMI (Oct 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Producer Price Index YoY - CN
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About Producer Price Index YoY — China
DEFINITION
China's Producer Price Index YoY rose to 5.000000% in September, beating the 4.500000% estimate and up from August's 3.800000%. This marks a significant acceleration in producer inflation, indicating stronger cost pressures in the manufacturing sector. Market participants will watch for central bank responses amid this upward trend. Updated 10/14/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 5 %, consensus 4.5 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 3.8 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 3.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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