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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Producer Price Index YoY climbed to 3.8% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
China Producer Price Index YoY climbed to 3.8% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.3% from July's 3.5% reading. The reading matched the 3.7% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -0.68%. The reading is in the 92nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.8
Actual
3.7
Consensus
3.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.19 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 3.55
Actual: 3.8
Error: -0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index YoY (China) was reported at 3.8% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.7% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.31%, ranging from -2.3% to 3.9% across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.73%, up from the prior three at -1.4%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.68%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.52%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CNH (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.19%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 14, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include FDI (Sep 17) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Sep 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Producer Price Index YoY - CN
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About Producer Price Index YoY — China
DEFINITION
China's Producer Price Index YoY rose to 3.800% in August, beating the 3.700% estimate and up from July's 3.500%. This marks continued inflationary pressure in producer prices, reflecting ongoing cost increases in the supply chain. Markets will watch for further data as the central bank maintains a cautious stance amid persistent inflation. Updated 9/9/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 3.8 %, consensus 3.7 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 3.5 %. Before that (May 2026): 3.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | CN | M2 Money Supply YoY | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 7.55 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Total Social Financing | 1660 | 1410 | 2040 | 1850.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | New Loans | 60 | -340 | 400 | 230.00 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:30 | CN | House Price Index YoY | -3 | -3.2 | -3.1 | -3.10 | Medium |
| 02:00 | CN | Retail Sales YoY | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.63 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Unemployment Rate | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.20 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Industrial Production YoY | 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.95 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Fixed Asset Investment | -7.2 | -6.7 | -7.2 | -7.72 | Medium |