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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Retail Sales YoY climbed to 1.1% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
China Retail Sales YoY climbed to 1.1% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.7% from August's 0.4% reading. The print exceeded the 0.5% consensus by 0.6%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1.47%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales YoY averaged 0.5%, vs 0.2% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 30th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.1
Actual
0.5
Consensus
0.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.53 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.18
Actual: 1.1
Error: -0.93
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CNY | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales YoY (China) was reported at 1.1% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.5% by 0.6%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.06%, ranging from -0.6% to 2.9% across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.7%, up from the prior three at 0.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.03%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.09%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales YoY has averaged 2.43%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Hang Seng (Bullish Hang Seng). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.53%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NBS Non Manufacturing PMI (Oct 31) and NBS Manufacturing PMI (Oct 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Retail Sales YoY - CN
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About Retail Sales YoY — China
DEFINITION
Retail Sales YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retailers compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides insight into the strength of consumer spending and overall economic growth, making it a key metric for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a decline in consumer confidence and potential economic slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 1.1 %, consensus 0.5 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 0.4 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 0.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Hang Seng (Bullish Hang Seng, r=0.42) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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