China Retail Sales YoY: November 2025 Data and Macroeconomic Implications
Table of Contents
China’s retail sales growth slowed to 2.90% YoY in November 2025, slightly below expectations but still signaling moderate consumer demand. This marks a marginal decline from October’s 3.00% and continues a downward trend from mid-year peaks above 6%. The latest data from the Sigmanomics database highlights ongoing challenges in domestic consumption amid shifting macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions.
Drivers this month
- Consumer spending softened amid cautious household sentiment.
- Durable goods purchases slowed, while services consumption remained stable.
- Urban retail sales outpaced rural areas, reflecting uneven recovery.
Policy pulse
The 2.90% growth rate remains below the People’s Bank of China’s implicit target range of 4-5% for retail sales growth to sustain robust economic momentum. Monetary policy remains accommodative but cautious, balancing inflation control with growth support.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: USD/CNH edged up 0.15% post-release, reflecting mild disappointment. Chinese equities showed modest declines, while bond yields held steady, signaling a wait-and-see stance among investors.
The retail sales figure is a core indicator of domestic demand, closely linked to GDP growth and consumer confidence. The 2.90% YoY increase in November compares with a 12-month average of approximately 4.30%, evidencing a slowdown from the 6.40% peak in June 2025. This deceleration aligns with other foundational indicators such as industrial production growth (3.20% YoY) and fixed asset investment (4.50% YoY), both showing moderate expansion.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The People’s Bank of China has maintained a steady benchmark lending rate at 3.65%, with liquidity injections aimed at stabilizing credit growth. Financial conditions remain moderately loose, but rising global interest rates and tighter external financing conditions pose headwinds.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal stimulus continues through infrastructure spending and targeted subsidies, but the government’s budget deficit remains constrained at 3.20% of GDP. This limits the scope for aggressive demand-side support, emphasizing the need for private consumption to pick up.
Drivers this month
- Weaker auto and electronics sales contributed -0.40 percentage points to growth.
- Food and beverage retail sales remained resilient, adding 0.30 percentage points.
- Online retail sales growth slowed to 5.20% YoY, down from 6.80% in October.
This chart highlights a clear deceleration in retail sales growth, signaling a cautious consumer environment. The downward trend may pressure policymakers to consider additional stimulus or structural reforms to sustain consumption-led growth.
Policy pulse
The data underscores the challenge for the PBOC to balance inflation control with growth support. Inflation remains moderate at 2.30%, allowing room for targeted easing if consumption weakens further.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: SHCOMP index declined 0.50% within the first hour, reflecting investor concerns over slowing domestic demand. The CNY weakened slightly against the USD, consistent with risk-off sentiment.
Looking ahead, retail sales growth in China faces a complex interplay of factors. The base case scenario forecasts a gradual recovery to 3.50%-4.00% YoY by mid-2026, supported by ongoing urbanization and digital consumption trends. However, downside risks include renewed COVID-19 outbreaks, geopolitical tensions, and tighter global financial conditions, which could push growth below 2.50% (bearish scenario, 30% probability). Conversely, a successful policy stimulus package and improved consumer confidence could lift growth above 4.50% (bullish scenario, 25% probability).
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Trade tensions and supply chain disruptions remain key risks. Any escalation could dampen consumer sentiment and import-dependent retail sectors.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Long-term drivers such as rising middle-class incomes, e-commerce expansion, and rural market penetration support a positive outlook for retail sales growth beyond cyclical fluctuations.
In summary, China’s retail sales YoY growth of 2.90% in November 2025 reflects a cautious consumer environment amid shifting macroeconomic conditions. While the slowdown from mid-year highs is notable, structural factors and policy support provide a foundation for moderate recovery. Investors and policymakers should monitor evolving financial conditions, geopolitical developments, and domestic demand signals closely to gauge the trajectory of China’s consumption-led growth.
Key Markets Likely to React to Retail Sales YoY
China’s retail sales data significantly influences regional equities, currency pairs, and commodities. The following symbols historically track or react to retail sales trends due to their economic sensitivity or market exposure:
- 000001.SS – Shanghai Composite Index, sensitive to domestic consumption trends.
- USDCNH – USD/CNH currency pair, reflects capital flows and sentiment linked to China’s economic data.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often reacts to risk sentiment shifts triggered by major economic releases.
- 0700.HK – Tencent Holdings, a proxy for consumer tech spending in China.
- EURCNH – Euro/Chinese Yuan, sensitive to trade and economic outlook.
Insight: Retail Sales vs. 000001.SS Since 2020
Since 2020, retail sales growth and the Shanghai Composite Index (000001.SS) have shown a positive correlation, with peaks in retail sales often preceding equity rallies. For example, the mid-2025 retail sales peak at 6.40% coincided with a 12% rise in the index over three months. The recent slowdown to 2.90% has corresponded with a 4% pullback in equities, underscoring the sensitivity of market sentiment to consumer demand data.
FAQs
- What does the China Retail Sales YoY figure indicate?
- The Retail Sales YoY figure measures the annual growth rate of consumer spending in China, reflecting domestic demand strength and economic health.
- How does the latest retail sales data impact China’s economy?
- The 2.90% growth signals a moderate slowdown in consumption, suggesting cautious consumer sentiment and potential headwinds for GDP growth.
- What are the key risks affecting China’s retail sales outlook?
- Risks include geopolitical tensions, global financial tightening, and potential COVID-19 disruptions, which could dampen consumer spending further.
Final Takeaway
China’s November 2025 retail sales growth at 2.90% highlights a cautious consumer environment amid complex macro challenges. While near-term risks persist, structural trends and policy support offer a pathway to moderate recovery in 2026.









The November 2025 retail sales YoY growth of 2.90% represents a slight dip from October’s 3.00% and is below the 12-month average of 4.30%. This marks the third consecutive month of deceleration following a mid-year peak of 6.40% in June. The trend suggests a cooling consumer sector after a strong rebound in early 2025.
Comparing historical data, the current growth rate is the lowest since January 2025’s 3.70%, and well below the 2024 average of 5.10%. The slowdown coincides with tightening global financial conditions and domestic policy recalibration.