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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Total Social Financing climbed to 3,550B in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
China Total Social Financing climbed to 3,550B in September 2026, released October 2026, up 1,890B from August's 1,660B reading. The print exceeded the 3,270B consensus by 280B. Total Social Financing has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Total Social Financing averaged 1,493.33B, vs 2,003.33B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 78th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3550
Actual
3270
Consensus
1660
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±320 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 3,227.5
Actual: 3,550
Error: -322.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CNH | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Total Social Financing (China) was reported at 3,550.00 billion in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3,270.00 billion by 280.00 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 1,660.00 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2,510.00 billion, ranging from 620.00 billion to 7,220.00 billion across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2,206.67 billion, up from the prior three at 2,003.33 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 1,651.70 billion) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1,772.23 billion). In October readings over the past 3 years, Total Social Financing has averaged 3,613.33 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with Hang Seng, positively correlated (Bullish Hang Seng). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 320.00 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NBS Non Manufacturing PMI (Oct 31) and NBS Manufacturing PMI (Oct 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Total Social Financing - CN
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About Total Social Financing — China
DEFINITION
Total Social Financing is a comprehensive measure of the amount of credit and liquidity provided to the economy by financial institutions and government agencies in a given period. It includes both traditional forms of financing, such as bank loans and bonds, as well as non-traditional forms such as shadow banking and government subsidies. This indicator provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the economy, as well as the effectiveness of government policies and regulations. It is widely used by economists and policymakers to monitor and analyze the flow of funds in the financial system.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 3,550 B, consensus 3,270 B. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 1,660 B. Before that (Jul 2026): 1,410 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.56) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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