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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Total Social Financing climbed to 1,660B in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
China Total Social Financing climbed to 1,660B in August 2026, released September 2026, up 250B from July's 1,410B reading. The reading missed the 2,040B consensus by 380B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 2,974.17B. Over the past 3 months, Total Social Financing averaged 2,060B, vs 3,277.5B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 25th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1660
Actual
2040
Consensus
1410
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±311.25 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 1,990
Actual: 1,660
Error: +330
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.71 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CNH | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Total Social Financing (China) was reported at 1,660.00 billion in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2,040.00 billion by 380.00 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 1,410.00 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2,508.33 billion, ranging from 620.00 billion to 7,220.00 billion across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2,143.33 billion, up from the prior three at 1,676.67 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 1,650.66 billion) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1,779.40 billion). In September readings over the past 3 years, Total Social Financing has averaged 2,420.00 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 311.25 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include FDI (Sep 17) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Sep 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Total Social Financing - CN
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About Total Social Financing — China
DEFINITION
Total Social Financing is a comprehensive measure of the amount of credit and liquidity provided to the economy by financial institutions and government agencies in a given period. It includes both traditional forms of financing, such as bank loans and bonds, as well as non-traditional forms such as shadow banking and government subsidies. This indicator provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the economy, as well as the effectiveness of government policies and regulations. It is widely used by economists and policymakers to monitor and analyze the flow of funds in the financial system.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 1,660 B, consensus 2,040 B. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 1,410 B. Before that (Jul 2026): 1,410 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.71) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | CN | M2 Money Supply YoY | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 7.55 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Total Social Financing | 1660 | 1410 | 2040 | 1850.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | New Loans | 60 | -340 | 400 | 230.00 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:30 | CN | House Price Index YoY | -3 | -3.2 | -3.1 | -3.10 | Medium |
| 02:00 | CN | Retail Sales YoY | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.63 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Unemployment Rate | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.20 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Industrial Production YoY | 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.95 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Fixed Asset Investment | -7.2 | -6.7 | -7.2 | -7.72 | Medium |