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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Trade Balance fell to 90.45B in September 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2025
China Trade Balance fell to 90.45B in September 2025, released October 2025, down 11.88B from August's 102.33B reading. The reading missed the 98.96B consensus by 8.51B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 293.95B. Over the past 3 months, Trade Balance averaged 309.34B, vs 282.35B in the prior 3-month window. Trade Balance is now the lowest in 7 months.
Latest Release
90.45
Actual
98.96
Consensus
102.33
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±44.12 billion
across last 8 releases
Last Call
Oct 2025
Predicted: 86.97
Actual: 90.45
Error: -3.48
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| USD/CNH | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Trade Balance (China) was reported at 90.45 billion in October 2025. This missed the market consensus of 98.96 billion by 8.51 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 102.33 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2025. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 299.29 billion, down from the prior three at 539.72 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD). Over the last 8 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 44.12 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Jun 22) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Jun 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2025.
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Trade Balance - CN
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About Trade Balance — China
DEFINITION
Trade balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is a net importer or exporter. A positive trade balance indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative trade balance indicates the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2025): actual 90.45 B, consensus 98.96 B. Prior reading (Sep 2025): 645.5 B. Before that (Sep 2025): 645.5 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.44) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.