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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Unemployment Rate climbed to 5.3% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
China Unemployment Rate climbed to 5.3% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.1% from July's 5.2% reading. The reading matched expectations. Unemployment Rate has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Unemployment Rate averaged 5.1%, vs 5.23% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 84th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
5.3
Actual
5.2
Consensus
5.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 5.2
Actual: 5.3
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.70 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Unemployment Rate (China) was reported at 5.3% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 5.2% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 5.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 5.17%, ranging from 5% to 5.3% across 11 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 5.17%, down from the prior three at 5.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.1%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.12%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Unemployment Rate has averaged 5.28%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include FDI (Sep 17) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Sep 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Unemployment Rate - CN
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About Unemployment Rate — China
DEFINITION
The Unemployment Rate is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage of the total labor force that is currently without a job and actively seeking employment. It is used to assess the health of the job market and the overall state of the economy. A high unemployment rate can indicate a weak economy, while a low unemployment rate can suggest a strong and growing economy. This data is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 5.3 %, consensus 5.2 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 5.2 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.70) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | CN | M2 Money Supply YoY | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 7.55 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Total Social Financing | 1660 | 1410 | 2040 | 1850.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | New Loans | 60 | -340 | 400 | 230.00 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:30 | CN | House Price Index YoY | -3 | -3.2 | -3.1 | -3.10 | Medium |
| 02:00 | CN | Retail Sales YoY | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.63 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Unemployment Rate | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.20 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Industrial Production YoY | 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.95 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Fixed Asset Investment | -7.2 | -6.7 | -7.2 | -7.72 | Medium |