China’s Unemployment Rate Holds at 5.10% in December 2025: Labor Market Steadies Amid Policy Crosswinds
China’s Unemployment Rate for December 2025, released January 19, 2026, remained unchanged at 5.10%, in line with both November’s figure and consensus estimates. The reading, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, offers a window into the world’s second-largest economy as it navigates persistent structural and cyclical challenges.
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
December 2025’s Unemployment Rate for China stood at 5.10%, unchanged from November 2025 and matching the 12-month average of 5.10%. This marks the third consecutive month at this level, following a modest improvement from 5.30% in September and 5.20% in October. The labor market’s stabilization reflects a balance between ongoing economic headwinds and targeted policy support.
- Services sector hiring offsetting manufacturing softness
- Urban youth unemployment remains elevated, but not worsening
- Seasonal hiring effects muted compared to prior years
Policy pulse
With the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) maintaining an accommodative stance, policymakers have prioritized employment stability. December’s steady print suggests current monetary and fiscal measures are containing job losses but not yet catalyzing a robust recovery. The reading remains above the government’s pre-pandemic target of “around 5%,” underscoring lingering slack.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: CNY was little changed, while the Shanghai Composite (^SSEC) edged up 0.10% in the first hour post-release, reflecting relief at the absence of negative surprises. Bond yields and credit spreads were stable, with risk assets showing muted sensitivity to the print.
Foundational Indicators
Labor market context
China’s labor market has shown resilience since mid-2025, when unemployment peaked at 5.40% in March. Since then, the rate eased to 5.20% in April, 5.10% in May, and briefly dipped to 5.00% in July before rebounding to 5.20% in August and 5.30% in September. The last quarter of 2025 saw a return to 5.10%, suggesting stabilization but not acceleration in job creation.
- December 2025: 5.10%
- November 2025: 5.10%
- September 2025: 5.30%
- July 2025: 5.00%
- 12-month average: 5.10%
Monetary and fiscal backdrop
The PBoC has kept policy rates low and injected liquidity to support credit growth, while fiscal authorities have ramped up infrastructure spending and tax relief for small businesses. However, private sector hiring remains cautious amid weak consumer confidence and property sector strains.
External and structural factors
Geopolitical tensions, subdued global demand, and ongoing property market deleveraging continue to weigh on hiring. Demographic headwinds and a mismatch between graduate skills and available jobs have kept youth unemployment stubbornly high, even as headline rates stabilize.
Chart Dynamics
Market lens
Immediate reaction: USD/CNY was flat, while the ^SSEC and ^HSI saw muted gains. Investors interpreted the data as neutral, with no immediate implications for PBoC policy or risk appetite. Sovereign bond yields and credit spreads were little changed.
Forward Outlook
Scenario analysis
- Bullish (25%): Unemployment falls below 5.00% by mid-2026 as stimulus gains traction, property sector stabilizes, and global demand improves.
- Base case (60%): Rate hovers near 5.10% through H1 2026, with modest job gains offset by structural drags and cautious hiring.
- Bearish (15%): Renewed property or export shocks push unemployment above 5.30%, prompting further policy easing.
Risks and catalysts
Key upside risks include stronger-than-expected fiscal stimulus, a rebound in consumer spending, and easing global trade tensions. Downside risks stem from property sector setbacks, persistent youth unemployment, and external shocks such as new tariffs or supply chain disruptions.
Policy pulse
With inflation subdued and growth below target, the PBoC is likely to maintain or even ease policy further if labor market gains stall. Fiscal authorities may accelerate infrastructure and social spending if unemployment edges higher.
Closing Thoughts
Structural and long-run trends
China’s labor market is at a crossroads. While headline unemployment has stabilized, underlying challenges—demographics, skills mismatches, and property sector overhang—remain unresolved. The government’s ability to engineer a soft landing for the jobs market will shape the macro outlook for 2026 and beyond.
Market lens
Investors are watching for signs of reacceleration in hiring or renewed stress. For now, the steady 5.10% print offers reassurance but not exuberance, keeping risk sentiment balanced as the new year unfolds.
Key Markets Likely to React to Unemployment Rate
China’s unemployment data has direct and indirect effects on equity, currency, and crypto markets. Below are five tradable symbols whose prices historically track or respond to shifts in China’s labor market. Each is presented in red and linked to its Sigmanomics page, with a brief note on its correlation or impact relationship:
- 000001.SS – Shanghai Composite Index; sensitive to domestic macro data and labor market trends.
- 0700.HK – Tencent Holdings; major Chinese tech stock, employment and consumer sentiment proxy.
- USDCNY – USD/CNY FX pair; tracks capital flows and macro sentiment on China’s economy.
- EURCNY – EUR/CNY FX pair; reflects European trade exposure and China’s demand outlook.
- BTCUSDT – Bitcoin/USDT; often inversely correlated with Chinese macro risk appetite.
| Year | Unemployment Rate (%) | 000001.SS YoY Return (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 5.60 | 13.90 |
| 2021 | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| 2022 | 5.50 | -15.10 |
| 2023 | 5.30 | 3.10 |
| 2024 | 5.20 | -3.70 |
| 2025 | 5.10 | -1.20 (est.) |
Lower unemployment rates have generally coincided with stronger equity returns, though external shocks and policy shifts can override this relationship in the short term.
FAQ: China’s Unemployment Rate for December 2025
Q1: What does China’s December 2025 Unemployment Rate reveal about the economy?
A1: The steady 5.10% reading signals a stabilizing labor market, but also highlights persistent structural challenges and cautious hiring.
Q2: How did markets react to the latest unemployment data?
A2: Markets were largely unmoved, with equities and the yuan showing minimal response, reflecting relief at the absence of negative surprises.
Q3: What are the main risks and opportunities ahead?
A3: Upside risks include stronger stimulus and global demand; downside risks center on property sector stress and youth unemployment.
Bottom line: China’s labor market is steady but fragile—policy vigilance and structural reforms will be crucial to sustain progress in 2026.
Updated 1/19/26
- Sigmanomics database, China Unemployment Rate, accessed January 19, 2026.
- People’s Bank of China, Policy Statements, 2025–2026.
- National Bureau of Statistics of China, Labor Market Reports, 2025.
December 2025’s Unemployment Rate of 5.10% matches both November’s 5.10% and the 12-month average, signaling a plateau after volatility earlier in the year. The rate peaked at 5.40% in March 2025, then trended lower through mid-year before stabilizing in Q4. The last six months show a narrow range (5.00%–5.30%), contrasting with sharper swings in 2024.
Compared to December 2024’s 5.20%, the current reading is 0.10 percentage points lower, indicating modest year-on-year improvement. However, the lack of further progress since October suggests that cyclical tailwinds are fading and structural challenges persist.