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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Vehicle Sales YoY fell to -6.2% in December 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased January 2026
China Vehicle Sales YoY fell to -6.2% in December 2025, released January 2026, down 9.6% from November's 3.4% reading. The reading missed the 3.1% consensus by 9.3%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 11.18%. Over the past 3 months, Vehicle Sales YoY averaged 2.0%, vs 15.33% in the prior 3-month window. Vehicle Sales YoY is now the lowest in 21 months.
Latest Release
-6.2
Actual
3.1
Consensus
3.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.12 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jan 2026
Predicted: 1.8
Actual: -6.2
Error: +8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CNY | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Vehicle Sales YoY (China) was reported at -3.20 in July 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of -2.10. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.36, ranging from -15.40 to 16.40 across 13 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -2.60, up from the prior three at -8.27. Volatility over the past year (σ 10.15) is comparable than the prior year (σ 9.95). In July readings over the past 3 years, Vehicle Sales YoY has averaged 2.63.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CNY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.12.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Vehicle Sales YoY - CN
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About Vehicle Sales YoY — China
DEFINITION
Vehicle Sales YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the number of vehicles sold by a company or industry compared to the same period in the previous year. This metric is used to assess the growth or decline in vehicle sales and can provide valuable insights into the overall performance and trends of the automotive market. It is a key indicator for investors, analysts, and businesses in the automotive industry to make informed decisions and evaluate the health of the market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -3.2 %. Prior reading (May 2026): -2.1 %. Before that (Apr 2026): -2.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | CN | NBS General PMI | 49.3 | 50.6 | 50.4 | 49.85 | Low |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Non Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 50.2 | 50 | 49.50 | Medium |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Manufacturing PMI | 49.2 | 50.3 | 50 | 49.60 | High |