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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Vehicle Sales YoY fell to -6.2% in December 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased January 2026
China Vehicle Sales YoY fell to -6.2% in December 2025, released January 2026, down 9.6% from November's 3.4% reading. The reading missed the 3.1% consensus by 9.3%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 11.18%. Over the past 3 months, Vehicle Sales YoY averaged 2.0%, vs 15.33% in the prior 3-month window. Vehicle Sales YoY is now the lowest in 21 months.
Latest Release
-6.2
Actual
3.1
Consensus
3.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.12 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jan 2026
Predicted: 1.8
Actual: -6.2
Error: +8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | INDEX | Bearish Nikkei 225 | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| USD/CNY | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | INDEX | Bearish Hang Seng | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Vehicle Sales YoY (China) was reported at -2.10 in June 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of -2.50. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 5.67, ranging from -15.40 to 16.40 across 13 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -6.67, down from the prior three at -2.00. Volatility over the past year (σ 10.19) is comparable than the prior year (σ 10.19). In June readings over the past 3 years, Vehicle Sales YoY has averaged 5.45.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Nikkei 225 (Bearish Nikkei 225). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.12.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Jun 22) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Jun 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Vehicle Sales YoY - CN
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About Vehicle Sales YoY — China
DEFINITION
Vehicle Sales YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the number of vehicles sold by a company or industry compared to the same period in the previous year. This metric is used to assess the growth or decline in vehicle sales and can provide valuable insights into the overall performance and trends of the automotive market. It is a key indicator for investors, analysts, and businesses in the automotive industry to make informed decisions and evaluate the health of the market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -2.1 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -2.5 %. Before that (Mar 2026): -0.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Nikkei 225 (Bearish Nikkei 225, r=-0.42) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.