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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Vehicle Sales YoY fell to -8.4% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
China Vehicle Sales YoY fell to -8.4% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 3.3% from August's -5.1% reading. The reading missed the -4.3% consensus by 4.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -4.48%. Over the past 3 months, Vehicle Sales YoY averaged -4.6%, vs -2.6% in the prior 3-month window. Vehicle Sales YoY is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
-8.4
Actual
-4.3
Consensus
-5.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.23 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -4.3
Actual: -8.4
Error: +4.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CNY | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Vehicle Sales YoY (China) was reported at -8.4% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -4.3% by 4.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of -5.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -3.11%, ranging from -15.4% to 8.8% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -4.6%, down from the prior three at -2.6%. Volatility over the past year (σ 5.92%) is lower than the prior year (σ 7.12%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Vehicle Sales YoY has averaged 1.6%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.23%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 11, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NBS Non Manufacturing PMI (Oct 31) and NBS Manufacturing PMI (Oct 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Vehicle Sales YoY - CN
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About Vehicle Sales YoY — China
DEFINITION
Vehicle Sales YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the number of vehicles sold by a company or industry compared to the same period in the previous year. This metric is used to assess the growth or decline in vehicle sales and can provide valuable insights into the overall performance and trends of the automotive market. It is a key indicator for investors, analysts, and businesses in the automotive industry to make informed decisions and evaluate the health of the market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -8.4 %, consensus -4.3 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): -8.4 %. Before that (Aug 2026): -5.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.49) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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