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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ColombiaColombia Balance of Trade fell to -2.11B in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Colombia Balance of Trade fell to -2.11B in April 2026, released June 2026, down 1.27B from March's -0.84B reading. The reading missed the -0.7B consensus by 1.41B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -1.62B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -1.19B, vs -1.58B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 7th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-2.11
Actual
-0.7
Consensus
-0.84
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.39 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -0.47
Actual: -2.11
Error: +1.64
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Colombia) was reported at -2.11 billion in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.70 billion by 1.41 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -0.84 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -1.71 billion, ranging from -2.28 billion to -0.84 billion across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -1.53 billion, up from the prior three at -1.77 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.41 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.29 billion). In June readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -1.74 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.39 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 21, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Balance of Trade - CO
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About Balance of Trade — Colombia
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -2.11 B, consensus -0.7 B. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -0.84 B. Before that (Feb 2026): -1.53 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.61) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CO Events
| Wednesday, July 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | CO | Industrial Production YoY | 2 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Low | |
| 15:00 | CO | Retail Sales YoY | 14.9 | 11 | 11.00 | Low | |
| Thursday, July 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | CO | Consumer Confidence | 17.8 | 12 | 12.00 | Low | |