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Colombia Balance of Trade climbed to -0.84B in March 2026, released May 2026, up 0.69B from February's -1.53B reading. The print exceeded the -1.3B consensus by 0.46B. Balance of Trade has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -1.59B, vs -1.9B in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the highest in 20 months.
across last 12 releases
May 2026
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.71 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
Balance of Trade (Colombia) was reported at -0.84 billion in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of -1.30 billion by 0.46 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of -1.53 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -1.67 billion, ranging from -2.28 billion to -0.84 billion across 10 releases.
The trailing three releases averaged -1.33 billion, up from the prior three at -1.93 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.38 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.28 billion). In May readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -0.99 billion.
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.32 billion.
The next release is scheduled for June 22, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
Latest reading (Mar 2026): actual -0.84 B, consensus -1.3 B. Prior reading (Feb 2026): -1.53 B. Before that (Jan 2026): -1.65 B.
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.72) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
| Tuesday, June 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | Industrial Production YoY | 2 | 3.9 | 3 | 2.50 | Low | |
| 15:00 | Retail Sales YoY | 14.9 | 13.4 | 11.4 | 13.15 | Low | |
| Wednesday, June 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | Consumer Confidence | 13.7 | 14 | 14.00 | Low | ||
| Thursday, June 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 16:00 | ISE Economic Activity YoY | 3.98 | 2.2 | 2.03 | Low | ||