Colombia CPI November 2025: Moderating Inflation Amid Persistent Pressures
The November 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Colombia rose 0.18% MoM, below expectations but signaling persistent inflationary pressures. Annual inflation remains elevated near 5.20%, reflecting ongoing supply constraints and external shocks. Monetary policy faces a delicate balance amid slowing price gains and geopolitical risks. Financial markets showed muted reaction, while fiscal policy and structural trends suggest cautious optimism for 2026.
Table of Contents
The latest CPI release for Colombia, dated November 10, 2025, shows a month-over-month increase of 0.18%, down from 0.32% in October and below the 0.13% consensus estimate. The annual inflation rate remains elevated at approximately 5.18%, consistent with the previous month’s reading. These figures come amid a complex macroeconomic environment marked by external shocks and evolving fiscal and monetary policies.
Drivers this month
- Shelter costs contributed 0.12 percentage points (pp) to monthly inflation.
- Food prices rose modestly, adding 0.05 pp.
- Energy prices remained stable, contributing near zero to CPI change.
- Used vehicle prices declined slightly, subtracting 0.02 pp.
Policy pulse
At 0.18% MoM, the CPI print remains above the central bank’s target range midpoint but below recent peaks. The Banco de la República is likely to maintain a cautious stance, balancing inflation containment with growth support.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Colombian peso (COP) depreciated marginally by 0.10% against the USD in the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields edged down 3 basis points, reflecting tempered inflation expectations.
Colombia’s CPI trajectory over the past year has been volatile. According to the Sigmanomics database, the annual inflation rate peaked at 5.18% in October 2025, similar to the 5.16% recorded in May 2025. Earlier in the year, March and April saw sharp spikes above 5%, driven by supply bottlenecks and currency fluctuations.
Historical comparisons
- November 2025’s 0.18% MoM rise is down from 0.32% in June 2025, indicating easing monthly inflation pressures.
- The 12-month average CPI increase stands near 4.50%, elevated compared to the 3.20% average in 2024.
- Compared to the 1.14% MoM inflation in March 2025, current monthly gains are subdued but still above pre-pandemic norms.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The Banco de la República has held the benchmark interest rate steady at 9.50% since September 2025, aiming to anchor inflation expectations. Financial conditions remain moderately tight, with credit growth slowing and bond spreads stable. Inflation persistence, however, keeps the door open for further rate adjustments if upside risks materialize.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Fiscal policy remains moderately expansionary, with the government targeting a 3.80% deficit of GDP in 2025. Increased social spending and infrastructure investments support demand but also risk fueling inflation if supply constraints persist.
Drivers this month
- Shelter costs: 0.12 pp
- Food prices: 0.05 pp
- Energy prices: ~0 pp
- Used cars: -0.02 pp
This chart highlights a trend of moderating monthly inflation after a mid-year peak. While headline inflation remains elevated, the downward momentum in monthly gains suggests that inflationary pressures may be stabilizing, pending external and domestic developments.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The COP weakened slightly by 0.10% versus the USD, while 2-year bond yields declined 3 basis points, signaling cautious optimism among investors about inflation’s near-term trajectory.
Looking ahead, Colombia’s inflation path depends on several key factors. Supply chain normalization and stable commodity prices could ease inflation, but geopolitical risks and fiscal stimulus may sustain upward pressure.
Scenario analysis
- Bullish (30% probability): Inflation falls below 4% by mid-2026 as supply constraints ease and monetary policy anchors expectations.
- Base (50% probability): Inflation remains near 5% through 2026, with moderate volatility driven by food and energy prices.
- Bearish (20% probability): Inflation spikes above 6% due to renewed external shocks or fiscal slippage, prompting aggressive rate hikes.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Global commodity price volatility and regional political tensions remain key risks. A sharp rise in oil prices or disruption in trade routes could reignite inflationary pressures.
Structural & long-run trends
Long-term inflation expectations remain anchored near 3%, supported by institutional credibility. However, structural challenges such as labor market rigidities and infrastructure gaps may limit disinflation speed.
Colombia’s November 2025 CPI data signals a cautious easing of inflation pressures but underscores persistent challenges. Policymakers face a delicate balancing act between containing inflation and supporting growth amid external uncertainties. Financial markets have so far digested the data without major disruption, reflecting confidence in the central bank’s approach.
Investors and analysts should monitor upcoming fiscal developments and geopolitical events closely, as these will shape inflation dynamics and monetary policy decisions in 2026.
Key Markets Likely to React to CPI
Colombia’s CPI release typically influences currency, bond, and equity markets sensitive to inflation and monetary policy expectations. The following tradable symbols historically track inflation trends and policy shifts in Colombia:
- COPUSD – The Colombian peso’s USD exchange rate reacts directly to inflation data and central bank policy.
- BVC – Colombia’s main stock exchange index, sensitive to economic growth and inflation outlook.
- ECOPETROL – Colombia’s largest oil company, impacted by inflation-driven commodity price shifts.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s USD pair, often viewed as an inflation hedge and alternative asset.
- USDCOP – The inverse of COPUSD, also highly sensitive to inflation and monetary policy.
Inflation vs. COPUSD Exchange Rate Since 2020
Since 2020, Colombia’s CPI inflation and the COPUSD exchange rate have shown a strong correlation. Periods of rising inflation often coincide with COP depreciation, reflecting concerns over purchasing power and monetary tightening. For example, the inflation spike in mid-2025 aligned with a 7% depreciation in COPUSD, underscoring the currency’s sensitivity to price pressures.
FAQ
- What does the latest Colombia CPI data indicate?
- The November 2025 CPI shows moderating monthly inflation at 0.18%, with annual inflation steady near 5.20%, signaling persistent but easing price pressures.
- How does Colombia’s inflation affect monetary policy?
- Inflation above target keeps the central bank cautious, likely maintaining or modestly adjusting interest rates to balance growth and price stability.
- What are the risks to Colombia’s inflation outlook?
- Risks include commodity price shocks, fiscal expansion, and geopolitical tensions that could push inflation higher or disrupt supply chains.
Takeaway: Colombia’s November CPI print signals easing inflation momentum but sustained pressures require vigilant policy and market monitoring into 2026.
The November 2025 CPI print of 0.18% MoM marks a slowdown from October’s 0.32% but remains above the 12-month average of 0.15%. Year-on-year inflation holds steady at 5.18%, consistent with the prior month and reflecting ongoing price pressures.
Monthly inflation has moderated since mid-2025’s peak of 0.32% in June, suggesting some easing in cost-push factors. However, the persistence of shelter and food price increases continues to support headline inflation.