Colombia’s January 2026 CPI Surges to 5.35%: Inflation Pressures Reignite
Colombia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January 2026, released on February 7, 2026, climbed to 5.35% year-over-year, surpassing both December’s 5.10% and the 12-month average. The latest data from the Sigmanomics database signals renewed inflationary momentum, with implications for monetary policy, market sentiment, and the broader macroeconomic outlook.
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
Colombia’s headline CPI for January 2026 registered at 5.35% year-over-year, according to the Sigmanomics database[1]. This marks a notable acceleration from December 2025’s 5.10% and stands above the 12-month average of 5.13%. The monthly increase was 0.27%, up from December’s 0.07% and the highest since September 2025. Compared to October 2025’s 5.18%, inflation has clearly re-accelerated after a brief moderation in late 2025.
Drivers this month
- Food prices contributed an estimated 0.18 percentage points (pp) to the headline, driven by supply chain disruptions.
- Transport costs added 0.09 pp, reflecting higher fuel prices and seasonal demand.
- Core services inflation remained sticky, contributing 0.07 pp.
Policy pulse
The January print sits well above the Banco de la República’s 3% inflation target, raising the likelihood of a prolonged restrictive stance. The central bank’s recent communications had hinted at possible rate cuts in Q2, but this data may delay easing.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: COP/USD weakened 0.4% and 2-year TES yields rose 12 bps in the first hour after the release. Local equities, represented by the COLCAP index, fell 0.7% as investors recalibrated rate cut expectations.
Foundational Indicators
Colombia’s inflation trajectory has been volatile over the past year. After peaking at 5.18% in October 2025, CPI slowed to 5.10% in December before rebounding in January. The 12-month average stands at 5.13%, with monthly prints ranging from 0.07% (December) to 0.32% (June 2025). The January 2026 figure is the highest since October, breaking a two-month cooling trend.
Drivers this month
- Food inflation: Up 0.6% month-over-month, reversing a 0.2% decline in December.
- Transport: Fuel prices rose 1.1% MoM, the sharpest increase since August.
- Housing and utilities: Up 0.3% MoM, in line with recent trends.
Policy pulse
With inflation re-accelerating, the central bank faces a dilemma. While growth remains subdued (Q4 GDP est. +1.2% YoY), inflation expectations for 2026 have ticked up to 4.8%. Fiscal policy remains expansionary, with the government running a 4.2% deficit of GDP in 2025, limiting room for stimulus.
Market lens
Breakeven inflation rates widened by 15 bps post-release, signaling rising inflation risk premiums. The COP remains vulnerable to external shocks, particularly given Colombia’s twin deficits and reliance on commodity exports.
Drivers this month
- Food and transport costs reversed prior declines, driving the headline higher.
- Core inflation remains sticky, with services inflation not yet easing.
Policy pulse
The CPI upturn reduces the probability of a near-term rate cut. Market-implied odds of a March cut fell from 35% to 18% post-release.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: COP/USD weakened 0.4% and 2-year TES yields rose 12 bps. The COLCAP index dropped 0.7%, reflecting concerns over tighter financial conditions and slower growth.
Forward Outlook
Looking ahead, Colombia’s inflation outlook is clouded by persistent food and energy price risks, fiscal constraints, and external vulnerabilities. The central bank is likely to maintain a cautious stance, with the first rate cut now expected no earlier than June 2026 if disinflation resumes.
Scenario probabilities
- Bullish (20%): Inflation falls below 4.5% by mid-2026 as food prices stabilize and global energy costs ease. Rate cuts resume in Q2, supporting a COP rebound.
- Base (60%): CPI remains in the 5.0–5.5% range through H1 2026, with gradual moderation in H2. Policy rates stay elevated, and growth remains subdued.
- Bearish (20%): Inflation accelerates above 6% due to renewed supply shocks or fiscal slippage. The central bank delays easing, and COP faces further depreciation.
Risks and catalysts
- External shocks: Oil price swings, Fed policy shifts, and regional instability could amplify volatility.
- Fiscal policy: Any slippage or populist spending could undermine confidence and fuel inflation expectations.
- Structural trends: Wage growth and indexation mechanisms may keep core inflation sticky.
Closing Thoughts
Colombia’s January 2026 CPI print at 5.35% signals that inflation remains a stubborn challenge. The re-acceleration, driven by food and transport, complicates the policy path and raises the risk of further market volatility. While the central bank is likely to remain on hold, the outlook hinges on external shocks, fiscal discipline, and the evolution of core inflation. Investors should brace for continued volatility in COP, local bonds, and equities as the inflation debate intensifies.
Key Markets Likely to React to CPI
Colombia’s inflation data has a direct impact on local and global markets. The following five tradable symbols are closely correlated with CPI trends, reflecting sensitivity to monetary policy, currency moves, and risk sentiment. Each symbol is selected from Sigmanomics’ stock, forex, and crypto market pages, ensuring broad asset class coverage.
- EC – Ecopetrol: Colombia’s largest oil producer, whose earnings and share price are sensitive to inflation-driven policy and COP moves.
- AVT – Grupo Aval: Major Colombian financial group, with loan growth and margins tied to inflation and interest rate cycles.
- USDCOP – USD/COP: The Colombian peso’s exchange rate, which typically weakens on higher inflation prints and delayed rate cuts.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin/USD: Often viewed as an inflation hedge, BTC’s local demand can rise during periods of COP volatility.
- ETHUSD – Ethereum/USD: Another crypto asset that can attract flows as inflation erodes local currency value.
| Year | CPI YoY (%) | USDCOP (avg) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2.5 | 3,700 |
| 2021 | 4.0 | 3,850 |
| 2022 | 6.8 | 4,200 |
| 2023 | 5.7 | 4,050 |
| 2024 | 5.2 | 4,100 |
| 2025 | 5.1 | 4,250 |
Periods of rising CPI have historically coincided with COP depreciation, as reflected in the USDCOP pair. The relationship remains robust, with the latest inflation surge likely to keep the peso under pressure.
FAQ: Colombia’s January 2026 CPI Surges to 5.35%: Inflation Pressures Reignite
Q1: What drove Colombia’s CPI higher in January 2026?
A1: Food and transport costs were the main contributors, reversing prior declines and pushing headline inflation to 5.35%.
Q2: How does this print compare to recent months?
A2: January’s 5.35% is up from December’s 5.10% and above the 12-month average of 5.13%, marking the fastest pace since October 2025.
Q3: What are the policy implications of this CPI release?
A3: The higher print reduces the likelihood of near-term rate cuts, with the central bank expected to maintain a restrictive stance until inflation moderates.
Bottom line: Colombia’s inflation resurgence in January 2026 raises the stakes for policymakers and markets, with risks skewed toward tighter financial conditions and further COP volatility.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Updated 2/7/26
January’s 5.35% CPI print is above both December’s 5.10% and the 12-month average of 5.13%. The monthly gain of 0.27% is the largest since September 2025, reversing the softening seen in November (0.18%) and December (0.07%). This upturn is visually clear in the CPI trend chart, which shows a renewed upward slope after two months of flattening.
Compared to May 2025’s 5.16% and October’s 5.18%, January’s reading confirms that inflationary pressures have not fully abated. The chart also highlights the persistent gap between actual CPI and the central bank’s 3% target, underscoring the challenge for policymakers.