Davivienda Manufacturing PMI for Colombia: December 2025 Analysis
Key Takeaways: The December 2025 Davivienda Manufacturing PMI for Colombia registered at 54.00, slightly below the 54.80 reading in November but above the 12-month average of 52.50. This signals continued expansion in manufacturing, albeit at a moderated pace. Core macro indicators and monetary policy remain supportive, while external risks and fiscal constraints pose challenges. Forward-looking scenarios suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook with balanced risks.
Table of Contents
The Davivienda Manufacturing PMI for Colombia in December 2025 came in at 54.00, down from 54.80 in November but still comfortably above the 50 expansion threshold. This reading reflects sustained growth in the manufacturing sector, though the pace has slightly moderated after a strong September peak of 55.30. Over the past year, the PMI has averaged 52.50, indicating steady expansion amid a complex macroeconomic backdrop.
Geographic & Temporal Scope
The PMI covers Colombia’s manufacturing sector nationwide, capturing data from a broad range of industries including textiles, chemicals, and machinery. The December release reflects activity in late November, a period marked by moderate global demand and evolving domestic conditions. The Sigmanomics database confirms this as the most recent data point, with a consistent monthly cadence since May 2025.
Core Macroeconomic Indicators
- GDP growth for Q3 2025 was 3.20% YoY, supported by manufacturing and services.
- Inflation remains contained at 4.10% YoY, near the central bank’s 3% target range.
- Unemployment held steady at 9.50%, with manufacturing employment showing slight gains.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Central Bank of Colombia has maintained its policy rate at 7.50% since October 2025, balancing inflation control with growth support. Financial conditions remain moderately tight but stable, with credit growth to manufacturing firms at 5.80% YoY. The PMI’s slight dip aligns with cautious corporate sentiment amid ongoing rate normalization.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal policy remains moderately expansionary, with the government targeting a 3.80% deficit of GDP in 2025. Infrastructure spending has supported manufacturing supply chains, though tax reforms under discussion could introduce uncertainty. The budget outlook is stable but constrained by rising debt service costs.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global supply chain disruptions have eased but remain a risk factor. Commodity price volatility, especially in oil and metals, impacts manufacturing input costs. Geopolitical tensions in neighboring regions have not directly affected Colombia but contribute to cautious export outlooks.
Drivers this month
- New orders contributed 0.25 points, reflecting steady domestic demand.
- Production growth added 0.18 points, supported by inventory replenishment.
- Supplier delivery delays subtracted -0.10 points, signaling minor logistical challenges.
- Employment growth remained flat, contributing 0.00 points.
Policy pulse
The PMI remains above the neutral 50 mark and comfortably within the expansion zone. This supports the central bank’s current stance of holding rates steady, as inflation pressures moderate and growth remains positive. The reading aligns with inflation hovering near target, suggesting no immediate need for further tightening.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Colombian peso (COP) strengthened 0.30% against the USD within the first hour post-release, reflecting investor confidence in sustained manufacturing growth. Local equities, represented by the ECOPETROL, gained 0.50%, while bond yields remained stable.
This chart highlights a manufacturing sector trending upward but moderating after a recent peak. The PMI’s stability above 50 signals ongoing expansion, though supply chain and employment factors warrant monitoring for potential headwinds.
Forward Outlook
Looking ahead, the manufacturing PMI suggests continued expansion but with some moderation risks. Three scenarios emerge:
- Bullish (30% probability): PMI rises above 55, driven by stronger export demand and easing supply constraints, supporting GDP growth above 3.50% in 2026.
- Base (50% probability): PMI stabilizes around 53-54, reflecting steady domestic demand and contained inflation, with GDP growth near 3.00%.
- Bearish (20% probability): PMI falls below 50 due to renewed external shocks or fiscal tightening, risking slower growth and higher unemployment.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Colombia’s manufacturing sector is gradually shifting toward higher value-added production and digital integration. Investment in technology and workforce skills is improving productivity, which should support long-term PMI gains. However, infrastructure bottlenecks and regulatory challenges remain structural constraints.
The December 2025 Davivienda Manufacturing PMI reading of 54.00 confirms ongoing expansion in Colombia’s manufacturing sector, albeit at a slightly slower pace than the previous month. Supported by stable monetary policy and moderate fiscal stimulus, the sector faces manageable risks from external shocks and supply chain issues. Forward-looking scenarios highlight a balanced outlook with upside potential if global demand strengthens. Policymakers and investors should monitor inflation trends and geopolitical developments closely to navigate the evolving landscape.
Key Markets Likely to React to Davivienda Manufacturing PMI
The Davivienda Manufacturing PMI is a critical barometer for Colombia’s economic health, influencing various asset classes. The following markets historically track PMI movements closely:
- ECOPETROL – Colombia’s largest energy company, sensitive to manufacturing demand and economic cycles.
- USDCOP – The USD/COP currency pair reacts to shifts in economic growth and investor sentiment.
- BVC – Colombia’s main stock exchange index, reflecting broad market sentiment tied to economic indicators.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often moves inversely to risk sentiment, which PMI data can influence.
- EURCOP – Euro to Colombian peso exchange rate, sensitive to trade and capital flows linked to manufacturing activity.
Extras: PMI vs. ECOPETROL Price Since 2020
Since 2020, the Davivienda Manufacturing PMI and ECOPETROL stock price have shown a positive correlation. Periods of PMI expansion above 52 generally coincide with upward trends in ECOPETROL shares, reflecting stronger industrial demand and energy consumption. For example, the PMI’s rebound from 51.40 in May 2025 to 55.30 in September 2025 paralleled a 12% rise in ECOPETROL’s stock price. This relationship underscores the PMI’s role as a leading indicator for Colombia’s industrial and energy sectors.
FAQ
- What is the Davivienda Manufacturing PMI?
- The Davivienda Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey-based indicator measuring the health of Colombia’s manufacturing sector, with values above 50 signaling expansion.
- How does the PMI affect Colombia’s economy?
- The PMI reflects manufacturing activity, influencing GDP growth forecasts, employment, and investor confidence in Colombia’s economic outlook.
- What factors influence the PMI readings?
- Key drivers include domestic demand, export orders, supply chain conditions, monetary and fiscal policies, and external geopolitical risks.
Final Takeaway: Colombia’s manufacturing sector remains on a growth path, supported by stable macro policies and resilient demand. The December PMI reading of 54.00 signals ongoing expansion, though vigilance is needed amid external uncertainties and evolving fiscal dynamics.
ECOPETROL – Colombia’s largest energy company, closely linked to manufacturing demand and economic cycles.
USDCOP – The USD to Colombian peso exchange rate, sensitive to economic growth and investor sentiment.
BVC – Colombia’s main stock index, reflecting broad market reactions to economic data.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin price, often inversely correlated with risk sentiment influenced by economic indicators.
EURCOP – Euro to Colombian peso exchange rate, impacted by trade flows and capital movements linked to manufacturing.
The December PMI reading of 54.00 marks a 0.80-point decline from November’s 54.80 but remains well above the 12-month average of 52.50. This suggests a slight cooling in manufacturing momentum after a strong rebound in September (55.30) and October (52.00). The index components show mixed signals: new orders and production remain robust, while supplier delivery times lengthened marginally.
Compared to the May 2025 low of 51.40, the current reading reflects a sustained recovery phase. The PMI’s trajectory over the past six months indicates resilience despite tightening monetary policy and external headwinds.