Colombia’s Q4 2025 GDP growth slowed sharply to 0.1%, missing consensus and marking the weakest pace since early 2024. The figure underscores persistent headwinds after a mid-year rebound, with services and construction showing only marginal gains.
Colombia GDP Growth Rate QoQ: Q4 2025 Print Signals Renewed Caution
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Services: +0.04pp
- Construction: +0.03pp
- Manufacturing: +0.01pp
- Agriculture: flat
- Mining: -0.01pp
Policy pulse
Colombia’s 0.1% QoQ GDP growth in Q4 2025 fell well short of the 0.7% consensus estimate[1]. The central bank’s implicit target range for quarterly expansion remains above 0.5%, highlighting a significant undershoot.Market lens
Peso and equities slipped on the release, reflecting disappointment with the weak print. Investors had positioned for a firmer rebound after Q3’s 1.2% rise, but the latest data point signals a loss of momentum. The muted expansion raises questions about the durability of Colombia’s recovery heading into 2026.Foundational Indicators
Historical context
Q4’s 0.1% growth marks a sharp deceleration from November’s 1.2% and August’s 0.5%[1]. The 12-month average stands at 0.65%, with the latest reading the lowest since February 2024’s -0.2%. Over the past five quarters, growth ranged from -0.2% to 1.2%, underscoring volatility in Colombia’s post-pandemic trajectory.Comparative benchmarks
Compared to Q2 2025’s 0.8% and Q1’s 0.6%, the current figure signals a clear loss of steam. The annualized pace also trails regional peers, with Brazil and Peru both posting above 0.5% QoQ in the same period[1].Methodology
The National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) compiles GDP using chain-linked volume measures, seasonally adjusted, in line with international standards[1].
What This Chart Tells Us: Colombia’s GDP growth momentum has faded since late 2025, with Q4’s 0.1% print breaking a string of stronger quarters. The chart highlights a return to subpar expansion, raising concerns about underlying demand and the sustainability of the recovery.
Forward Outlook
Scenario analysis
- Bullish: Services and construction rebound, pushing QoQ growth above 0.5% (probability: 20–30%).
- Base: GDP hovers near 0.2–0.4% as domestic demand stabilizes (probability: 50–60%).
- Bearish: External shocks or policy tightening tip growth below zero (probability: 10–20%).
Risks and catalysts
Upside risks include fiscal stimulus and improved commodity prices. Downside risks stem from global demand weakness, tighter financial conditions, and persistent inflation pressures.Data source
All figures sourced from DANE and Sigmanomics database[1]. Methodology adheres to international best practices, ensuring comparability.Closing Thoughts
Market lens
Colombian assets underperformed regional peers following the GDP release. The peso weakened against the dollar, while local equities saw modest declines. Market participants are recalibrating expectations for 2026, with the soft Q4 print prompting renewed caution on growth-sensitive sectors.Key Markets Reacting to GDP Growth Rate QoQ
Colombia’s GDP growth data has immediate implications for both local and international markets. The Q4 2025 print triggered notable moves in equities, currency pairs, and even select crypto assets with exposure to emerging market sentiment. Below are verified tradable symbols most sensitive to Colombia’s economic trajectory.- AAPL (US equities): Often used as a global risk barometer; reacts to EM growth signals.
- USDCOP (Forex): Directly tracks the Colombian peso’s response to GDP surprises.
- BTCUSD (Crypto): Correlates with risk appetite and EM capital flows.
| Quarter | GDP QoQ (%) | USDCOP Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 2024 | -0.2 | +2.1 |
| May 2024 | 1.1 | -1.4 |
| Aug 2024 | 0.1 | +0.5 |
| Nov 2024 | 0.2 | -0.3 |
| Feb 2025 | 0.6 | -0.7 |
| May 2025 | 0.8 | -1.0 |
| Aug 2025 | 0.5 | +0.2 |
| Nov 2025 | 1.2 | -1.8 |
| Feb 2026 | 0.1 | +0.9 |
Frequently Asked Questions
- What does the latest Colombia GDP Growth Rate QoQ report show?
- Colombia’s Q4 2025 GDP growth rate was 0.1% quarter-over-quarter, the weakest since early 2024 and well below consensus estimates.
- Why did Colombia’s GDP growth slow so sharply in Q4 2025?
- The slowdown reflects softer gains in services and construction, with manufacturing and agriculture largely flat and mining slightly negative.
- How does the Q4 2025 GDP Growth Rate QoQ compare to previous quarters?
- Q4’s 0.1% is a marked deceleration from November’s 1.2% and trails the 12-month average of 0.65%.
Colombia’s Q4 GDP print signals a renewed need for vigilance as growth momentum fades.
Updated 2/16/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- DANE (Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística), official GDP releases, 2023–2026
- Sigmanomics Economic Database, Colombia GDP Growth Rate QoQ, 2023–2026
Chart Dynamics
Q4 2025 GDP growth registered 0.1%, down from November’s 1.2% and well below the 12-month average of 0.65%. The previous three quarters saw readings of 0.5%, 1.2%, and 0.8%, respectively, illustrating a pronounced slowdown after mid-2025’s rebound. The last negative print was -0.2% in February 2024, while the strongest recent quarter was May 2024’s 1.1%[1].