Colombia GDP Growth Rate YoY: January 2026 Release
Colombia’s latest GDP data reveal a notable deceleration in annual growth, raising questions about the durability of the country’s post-pandemic recovery. The January 2026 print, released February 16, underscores shifting sector dynamics and evolving policy challenges.
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Services: +0.7 percentage points
- Construction: +0.3 percentage points
- Manufacturing: -0.2 percentage points
- Agriculture: -0.1 percentage points
Policy pulse
January’s 2.3% YoY GDP growth sits below the Banco de la República’s 3.0% target for 2026. Policymakers face a narrowing margin for error as domestic demand cools.
Market lens
Markets absorbed the weaker print with little volatility. COP-denominated assets held steady, as investors had already priced in a moderation from December’s 3.6% surge. The yield curve flattened slightly, reflecting tempered growth expectations.
Foundational Indicators
Historical context
- January 2026: 2.3% YoY
- December 2025: 3.6% YoY
- August 2025: 2.1% YoY
- May 2025: 2.7% YoY
- February 2025: 2.3% YoY
- November 2024: 2.0% YoY
Sectoral breakdown
- Services: 3.2% YoY
- Construction: 2.8% YoY
- Manufacturing: 1.1% YoY
- Agriculture: 0.9% YoY
Methodology
Figures are sourced from Colombia’s DANE and cross-verified with the Sigmanomics database[1]. The YoY growth rate compares real GDP output for January 2026 against January 2025, seasonally adjusted.
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario analysis
- Bullish (25%): Services and construction rebound, pushing growth above 2.7% by Q2 2026.
- Base (60%): GDP growth stabilizes near 2.3% as policy support offsets weak manufacturing.
- Bearish (15%): Further demand erosion drags growth below 2.0% in coming months.
Risks and catalysts
- Upside: Infrastructure spending, improved credit conditions
- Downside: External shocks, persistent inflation, policy missteps
Data source
All figures are from DANE and the Sigmanomics database[1], using seasonally adjusted real GDP data.
Closing Thoughts
Market lens
Investors remain cautious as growth momentum fades. The muted market response reflects a consensus that Colombia’s expansion is losing steam, but not yet at risk of contraction. Policymakers face a delicate balancing act as they weigh growth support against inflation containment.
Key Markets Reacting to GDP Growth Rate YoY
Colombia’s GDP growth print has ripple effects across equities, currency, and crypto markets. Investors monitor these sectors for clues on economic resilience and capital flows. The following symbols have shown sensitivity to Colombian macro data, especially during periods of growth volatility.
- AAPL (US equities): Global tech stocks often react to emerging market growth trends, with risk appetite shifting on macro surprises.
- USDCOP (Forex): The Colombian peso’s exchange rate is highly sensitive to GDP data, with weaker growth typically pressuring COP lower.
- BTCUSD (Crypto): Bitcoin’s correlation with emerging market currencies has increased during episodes of local economic stress.
| Year | GDP YoY (%) | USDCOP Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -6.8 | Peso depreciated sharply |
| 2021 | 10.7 | Peso recovered |
| 2022 | 7.3 | Peso stable |
| 2023 | 0.3 | Peso weakened |
| 2024 | 2.0 | Peso modestly stronger |
| 2025 | 2.3 | Peso steady |
| 2026 (Jan) | 2.3 | Peso under mild pressure |
Since 2020, USDCOP has tracked Colombia’s GDP swings closely, with the peso tending to weaken during periods of sub-2% growth and stabilize or strengthen when growth exceeds 2.5%.
FAQ: Colombia GDP Growth Rate YoY: January 2026 Release
- What is the latest GDP Growth Rate YoY for Colombia?
- The most recent figure is 2.3% for January 2026, down from 3.6% in December 2025.
- How does this release impact Colombia’s economic outlook?
- The slowdown signals weaker domestic demand and raises concerns about the sustainability of the recovery.
- What is the focus keyword for this report?
- GDP Growth Rate YoY
Colombia’s GDP growth has lost momentum, with the January 2026 print underscoring a challenging macro backdrop.
Updated 2/16/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- [1] Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE), Sigmanomics Economic Database, GDP Growth Rate YoY, Colombia, 2023–2026.
January’s 2.3% YoY GDP growth marks a steep drop from December’s 3.6% and falls below the 12-month average of 2.4%. The last time growth was this subdued was in May 2025, when the reading matched the current level. Over the past six months, the trend has oscillated between 2.0% and 3.6%, with the latest figure signaling a clear loss of momentum.
Compared to August’s 2.1% and November’s 2.0%, the current reading is only modestly higher, but the reversal from December’s peak is pronounced. The 2024-2025 period saw a gradual recovery from negative territory in late 2023, but the pace has now slowed.