Colombia’s GDP growth rate YoY for November 2025 surged to 3.60%, surpassing the 1.80% estimate and the previous 2.10% reading from August 2025. This marks the strongest expansion since early 2023, when growth hovered near zero. The rebound signals a recovery from the modest 2.10% average growth recorded over the past year and a half, reflecting improved domestic consumption and investment.

Drivers this month

• Domestic consumption rose sharply, contributing 1.40 percentage points (pp) to growth.
• Investment growth accelerated, adding 0.90 pp, driven by infrastructure and manufacturing.
• Exports rebounded modestly, contributing 0.50 pp amid improved commodity prices.
• Government spending remained steady, supporting 0.30 pp.
• Net imports subtracted -0.50 pp, reflecting stronger domestic demand for foreign goods.

Policy pulse

The Central Bank of Colombia has maintained an accommodative stance, keeping the benchmark interest rate at 7.50% to support growth while monitoring inflation near the 3% target. The stronger GDP print reinforces the bank’s cautious optimism but may prompt a gradual tightening if inflationary pressures persist.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The Colombian peso (COP) strengthened 0.40% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while the COLIBR (Colombia 2-year bond yield) rose 12 basis points, reflecting improved growth expectations and moderate inflation concerns.

Colombia’s GDP growth trajectory over the past two years has been volatile, with readings oscillating between -0.30% and 2.70% YoY. The current 3.60% figure is a marked acceleration from the 12-month average of 1.40%, signaling a robust recovery phase.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The Central Bank’s steady policy rate of 7.50% has balanced growth support with inflation control. Inflation remains near 3.20%, slightly above target but manageable. Credit growth has picked up, with bank lending expanding 6.50% YoY, supporting consumption and investment.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal discipline continues, with the government maintaining a primary surplus of 0.50% of GDP. Public investment in infrastructure has increased by 8% YoY, underpinning the investment component of GDP growth. Tax reforms enacted in early 2025 have broadened the revenue base without stifling demand.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Commodity price volatility, especially in oil and coffee, remains a risk. Recent geopolitical tensions in neighboring Venezuela and global trade uncertainties could disrupt export flows. However, diversification efforts in manufacturing and services are mitigating these risks.

Chart Insight

The chart illustrates Colombia’s GDP growth volatility over the past two years, highlighting a recovery trend since early 2025. The current figure breaks a pattern of sub-2% growth, suggesting a potential new growth cycle.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The COP/USD exchange rate appreciated 0.40%, while the COLIBR 2-year yield increased by 12 basis points, reflecting market confidence in sustained growth but cautious inflation expectations.

Looking ahead, Colombia’s GDP growth faces a mix of opportunities and risks. The base case scenario projects growth stabilizing around 3.00% YoY over the next 12 months, supported by ongoing fiscal stimulus and improving global demand.

Bullish scenario (25% probability)

• Global commodity prices rise 10%, boosting export revenues.
• Foreign direct investment increases by 15%, accelerating infrastructure projects.
• Monetary policy remains accommodative, spurring credit growth above 7% YoY.
• GDP growth exceeds 4.50% YoY by mid-2026.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Moderate global growth supports steady export demand.
• Fiscal policy remains prudent, with public investment growth around 6%.
• Monetary policy gradually tightens to contain inflation near 3%.
• GDP growth averages 3.00% YoY through 2026.

Bearish scenario (25% probability)

• Commodity prices fall 15%, reducing export income.
• Geopolitical tensions disrupt trade routes.
• Inflation spikes above 5%, forcing aggressive monetary tightening.
• GDP growth slows to below 1.50% YoY in late 2026.

Colombia’s November 2025 GDP growth rate of 3.60% YoY marks a decisive rebound from prior sluggishness. The data reflects a healthier macroeconomic environment, supported by balanced monetary and fiscal policies. However, vigilance is warranted given external risks and inflationary pressures. Market participants should monitor commodity trends and geopolitical developments closely. Overall, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with growth likely to moderate but sustain above historical averages.

Key Markets Likely to React to GDP Growth Rate YoY

Colombia’s GDP growth rate is a critical indicator for several asset classes. Equity markets, local currency, bond yields, and commodity-linked instruments typically respond to shifts in growth expectations. The following symbols historically track Colombia’s economic momentum and are likely to react to this latest print.

• ECOPETROL – Colombia’s largest oil company, sensitive to GDP and commodity price shifts.
• COPUSD – The Colombian peso vs. US dollar, reflecting currency strength tied to economic growth.
• BVC – Colombia’s main stock exchange index, tracking overall market sentiment.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often a risk sentiment barometer, indirectly influenced by macro shifts.
• USDCOP – The inverse of COPUSD, important for importers and exporters.

FAQs

What does Colombia’s GDP Growth Rate YoY indicate?

The GDP Growth Rate YoY measures the annual percentage change in Colombia’s economic output, reflecting overall economic health and momentum.

How does the latest GDP print affect Colombia’s monetary policy?

The stronger-than-expected GDP growth may prompt the Central Bank to consider gradual interest rate hikes to manage inflation while sustaining growth.

Why is the GDP Growth Rate important for investors?

GDP growth influences corporate earnings, currency strength, and bond yields, guiding investment decisions across asset classes.

Key takeaway: Colombia’s 3.60% GDP growth in November 2025 signals a robust recovery, balancing optimism with caution amid external uncertainties.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.