Colombia’s industrial production fell 0.6% YoY in December, reversing November’s 0.7% gain. The downturn breaks a three-month positive streak, with manufacturing and mining output both under pressure.
Colombia Industrial Production YoY: December Downturn Ends Recent Gains
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Manufacturing: -0.4 percentage points
- Mining: -0.2 percentage points
- Utilities: flat
Policy pulse
Colombia’s December industrial production contracted 0.6% YoY, missing the 0.9% consensus estimate and reversing from November’s 0.7% increase. The reading remains below the Banco de la República’s target for broad-based industrial growth.Market lens
Peso and equities retreated on the release. The negative print weighed on local stocks, with industrials and materials underperforming. COP weakened modestly against the dollar as traders recalibrated growth expectations.Foundational Indicators
Historical context
December’s -0.6% YoY marks the first contraction since August 2025’s 2.2% growth. The 12-month average stands at 1.7%, with notable volatility: June 2025 saw a 3.3% decline, while September posted a 5.8% surge. November’s 0.7% gain capped a three-month recovery before the latest reversal.Key figures
- December 2025: -0.6% YoY
- November 2025: 0.7% YoY
- October 2025: 1.0% YoY
- September 2025: 5.8% YoY
- 12-month average: 1.7% YoY
Policy pulse
The central bank’s industrial growth target remains unmet for the second time in six months, raising questions about the durability of the sector’s recovery.
What This Chart Tells Us: The industrial sector’s recovery remains fragile. Momentum built through early autumn faded by December, with output slipping back into contraction. The pattern signals persistent volatility and underscores the challenge of sustaining growth amid shifting demand and cost pressures.
Forward Outlook
Scenario analysis
- Bullish (20%): External demand rebounds and domestic investment rises, lifting YoY growth above 2% by Q2 2026.
- Base (60%): Output stabilizes near zero, with modest gains offset by ongoing sectoral weakness.
- Bearish (20%): Prolonged contraction as global headwinds persist, keeping readings negative through mid-2026.
Market lens
Bond yields edged lower on the release. Investors interpreted the contraction as a signal for slower economic momentum, prompting a mild rally in local sovereign debt.Data source and methodology
Figures reflect DANE’s official industrial production index, seasonally adjusted and reported in year-over-year terms. Data compiled from Sigmanomics and DANE releases[1].Closing Thoughts
Risks and opportunities
Upside risks include a turnaround in manufacturing exports and easing input costs. Downside risks stem from weak mining output and persistent global uncertainty. The sector’s path forward hinges on both domestic policy support and external demand conditions.Market lens
Equity analysts flagged downside risks to 2026 earnings. The latest data prompted several houses to revise industrial sector forecasts, citing the renewed contraction and lack of clear growth catalysts.Key Markets Likely to React to Industrial Production YoY
Colombia’s industrial production data often triggers swift moves across equities, FX, and regional indices. The December contraction is likely to influence both domestic and international investors, with particular attention on sectors tied to manufacturing and commodities. Below are key tradable symbols and their typical correlations to the indicator.- COLCAP: Colombia’s main equity index, historically sensitive to industrial output swings.
- USDCOP: The peso-dollar pair often reacts to industrial production surprises, reflecting shifts in growth sentiment.
- BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s correlation is low but can see indirect flows during periods of heightened local economic uncertainty.
| Year | Industrial Production YoY (%) | COLCAP YoY (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -7.2 | -13.5 |
| 2021 | 10.4 | 19.1 |
| 2022 | 4.8 | -7.9 |
| 2023 | 1.2 | 3.6 |
| 2024 | 0.9 | 2.1 |
| 2025 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
FAQ
- What does Colombia’s latest Industrial Production YoY figure indicate?
- December’s -0.6% YoY reading signals renewed contraction, ending a three-month positive streak and highlighting sectoral headwinds.
- How does the December 2025 print compare to recent months?
- It reverses November’s 0.7% gain and falls below the 12-month average of 1.7%, marking the first negative reading since August.
- Why is Industrial Production YoY important for Colombia’s economy?
- As a key gauge of manufacturing and mining activity, it shapes expectations for GDP growth and influences market sentiment.
Colombia’s industrial sector faces renewed headwinds as December’s contraction interrupts the fragile recovery.
Updated 2/13/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- DANE, Colombia National Administrative Department of Statistics, official industrial production releases, 2025–2026.
Chart Dynamics
December’s -0.6% YoY print contrasts with November’s 0.7% and falls well below the 12-month average of 1.7%. The latest figure ends a string of three consecutive positive readings, highlighting renewed sectoral headwinds. Volatility has defined the past half-year. After a sharp 3.3% drop in June, the index rebounded to 5.8% in September, only to lose momentum again by year-end.