Colombia Inflation Rate MoM: November 2025 Report and Macro Outlook
Key Takeaways: Colombia’s November 2025 inflation rate MoM came in at 0.18%, below expectations but signaling persistent price pressures. This marks a moderation from October’s 0.32% but remains above the 12-month average of 0.38%. Core drivers include shelter and food costs, while monetary policy remains cautious amid external uncertainties. Financial markets showed muted reactions, reflecting balanced risk sentiment. Fiscal discipline and geopolitical risks will shape inflation dynamics in the near term.
Table of Contents
The latest inflation rate MoM for Colombia (CO) released on November 10, 2025, registered at 0.18%, according to the Sigmanomics database. This figure came in below the market estimate of 0.13% but showed a significant slowdown from October’s 0.32%. Over the past 12 months, the average monthly inflation rate has been 0.38%, highlighting a general easing trend since the peak in early 2025.
Drivers this month
- Shelter costs contributed 0.12 percentage points (pp), reflecting ongoing housing demand pressures.
- Food prices added 0.05 pp, driven by seasonal supply constraints.
- Used car prices slightly eased, subtracting -0.02 pp from the headline figure.
Policy pulse
At 0.18%, inflation remains above the central bank’s target band midpoint of 0.10% MoM, suggesting persistent underlying price pressures. The Banco de la República is likely to maintain a cautious stance, balancing inflation containment with growth support.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Colombian peso (COP) depreciated 0.15% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields edged up 5 basis points, reflecting modest inflation risk repricing.
Colombia’s inflation dynamics must be viewed alongside key macroeconomic indicators. The country’s GDP growth for Q3 2025 was 3.20% YoY, slightly below the 3.50% average of the past two years. Unemployment remains steady at 9.10%, while wage growth has accelerated to 5.40% YoY, feeding into consumer price pressures.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The central bank’s benchmark interest rate currently stands at 7.25%, unchanged since September 2025. Financial conditions have tightened moderately, with credit growth slowing to 4.80% YoY. Inflation expectations for 2026 hover around 3.80%, slightly above the 3% target, indicating cautious optimism.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal policy remains prudent, with the government targeting a deficit of 3.50% of GDP in 2025. Recent tax reforms aim to bolster revenues without stifling growth. Public investment in infrastructure is expected to support medium-term productivity gains, indirectly influencing inflation through supply-side effects.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global commodity price volatility, especially in oil and food, continues to impact Colombia’s inflation. Geopolitical tensions in Latin America and trade uncertainties with key partners like the US and China add layers of risk to inflation stability.
Drivers this month
- Shelter inflation remains the largest contributor, consistent with housing market tightness.
- Food inflation pressures persist but at a slower pace than mid-2025.
- Energy prices stabilized, limiting upside inflation risks.
Policy pulse
The inflation print supports the central bank’s decision to pause rate hikes in recent months. However, the persistent above-target inflation suggests vigilance is warranted, especially if external shocks re-emerge.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The COP weakened modestly, while short-term bond yields rose, reflecting market recalibration to sustained inflation risks despite the slowdown.
This chart highlights a clear downward trend in monthly inflation since early 2025, interrupted by brief rebounds. The November figure signals a continuation of this easing, but inflation remains sticky above target, implying ongoing monetary policy challenges.
Looking ahead, Colombia’s inflation trajectory will depend on several factors. The base case scenario (60% probability) foresees inflation moderating to 0.12% MoM by Q1 2026, supported by stable commodity prices and moderate wage growth.
Bullish scenario
- Probability: 20%
- Inflation falls below 0.10% MoM by mid-2026 due to stronger peso appreciation and improved supply chains.
- Monetary easing possible, boosting growth.
Bearish scenario
- Probability: 20%
- Inflation rises above 0.25% MoM if global commodity prices spike or geopolitical tensions escalate.
- Central bank forced to hike rates, slowing growth.
Policy pulse
Monetary authorities will likely maintain a data-dependent approach, balancing inflation control with growth risks. Fiscal policy remains supportive but cautious to avoid overheating.
Market lens
Financial markets are expected to remain sensitive to inflation surprises. Currency and bond markets will react swiftly to shifts in inflation expectations and central bank guidance.
Colombia’s November 2025 inflation rate MoM of 0.18% reflects a moderation from recent highs but underscores persistent inflationary pressures. The interplay of domestic demand, wage growth, and external shocks will shape the inflation path. Policymakers face a delicate balancing act amid evolving global risks. Market participants should monitor inflation prints closely, as they will influence monetary policy and asset valuations.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate MoM
Inflation data in Colombia typically influences currency, bond, and equity markets. The Colombian peso (COP) often reacts to inflation surprises, as do local government bonds. Additionally, regional equities and commodities linked to Colombia’s economy show sensitivity to inflation trends.
- COPUSD – Directly impacted by inflation-driven monetary policy changes.
- ECOPETROL – Colombia’s largest oil company, sensitive to inflation and commodity price shifts.
- BVC – Colombia’s main stock exchange, reflecting broader economic sentiment.
- USDCOP – The inverse of COPUSD, also sensitive to inflation data.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin often reacts to inflation expectations and currency volatility.
Extras: Inflation Rate MoM vs. COPUSD Since 2020
Mini-chart insight: Since 2020, spikes in Colombia’s inflation rate MoM have correlated with short-term depreciation in COPUSD. For example, the February 2025 inflation peak of 0.94% coincided with a 3% drop in COPUSD over the following week. This inverse relationship underscores inflation’s role in shaping currency sentiment and highlights the importance of inflation data for forex traders.
FAQs
- What is the latest Inflation Rate MoM for Colombia?
- The latest inflation rate MoM for Colombia is 0.18% as of November 2025, indicating a slowdown from the previous month.
- How does Colombia’s inflation impact monetary policy?
- Persistent inflation above target pressures the central bank to maintain or raise interest rates to contain price growth.
- Why is monitoring Inflation Rate MoM important?
- Monthly inflation data provides timely insight into price trends, guiding policy decisions and market expectations.
COPUSD – Colombian peso to US dollar forex pair, sensitive to inflation and monetary policy shifts.
ECOPETROL – Colombia’s largest oil company, impacted by inflation and commodity price changes.
BVC – Colombia’s main stock exchange, reflecting economic and inflation sentiment.
USDCOP – US dollar to Colombian peso forex pair, inversely correlated with COPUSD.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin to US dollar crypto pair, often reacts to inflation and currency volatility.
The November 2025 inflation rate MoM of 0.18% marks a clear slowdown from October’s 0.32%, yet remains above the 12-month average of 0.38%. This deceleration suggests easing price pressures but not a full return to stable inflation.
Comparing historical data, the February 2025 peak of 0.94% MoM stands out as an outlier driven by supply shocks. Since then, inflation has trended downward with intermittent rebounds in May (0.66%) and October (0.32%). November’s figure aligns with this moderating pattern.