Colombia Inflation Rate YoY: January 2026 Print Surges to 5.35%, Surpassing Expectations
Colombia’s consumer price index (CPI) for January 2026, released February 7, 2026, revealed a year-over-year inflation rate of 5.35%. This marks a notable acceleration from December 2025’s 5.10% and overshoots market estimates of 5.00%[1]. The latest data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, underscores persistent inflationary pressures and raises critical questions for monetary policy, fiscal stance, and market sentiment in Latin America’s fourth-largest economy.
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
January 2026’s inflation rate of 5.35% (vs. December’s 5.10%) marks the first acceleration since November 2025, when inflation stood at 5.51%. The 12-month average now sits at 5.15%, with recent prints consistently above the central bank’s 3% target. Colombia’s inflation trajectory remains volatile: after peaking at 5.51% in November, the rate eased to 5.30% in December before rebounding in January.
Drivers this month
- Food prices contributed an estimated 0.22 percentage points (pp) to the headline, led by grains and fresh produce.
- Transport costs added 0.10 pp, reflecting higher fuel and public transit fares.
- Core goods and services inflation remained sticky, with shelter and utilities up modestly.
Policy pulse
The Banco de la República’s inflation target is 3% ±1pp. January’s 5.35% reading is well above the upper bound, complicating the case for near-term rate cuts. The central bank’s December minutes signaled caution, and this print may delay easing.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: COP weakened 0.4% against USD, and 2-year TES yields rose 12 bps in the first hour after the release. Breakeven inflation rates widened, reflecting market skepticism about a swift return to target.
Foundational Indicators
Colombia’s inflation rate has oscillated over the past year. Key monthly readings from the Sigmanomics database:
- November 2025: 5.51%
- December 2025: 5.10%
- January 2026: 5.35%
- 12-month average: 5.15%
GDP growth for Q4 2025 was 2.2% YoY, down from 2.7% in Q3, as higher rates weighed on domestic demand. Unemployment ticked up to 10.8% in January, while retail sales growth slowed to 1.1% YoY. Fiscal policy remains mildly expansionary, with the government running a 3.5% of GDP deficit in 2025, supporting household incomes but risking further price pressures.
Drivers this month
- Food inflation: +7.1% YoY, up from 6.8% in December.
- Transport: +6.4% YoY, reflecting fuel price adjustments.
- Core inflation: 4.9% YoY, little changed from December.
Policy pulse
The central bank’s policy rate stands at 10.25%, unchanged since October. Forward guidance remains data-dependent, with policymakers citing “persistent upside risks.”
Market lens
Colombian equities (COLCAP) fell 0.7% post-release, while sovereign CDS spreads widened by 8 bps, reflecting investor caution.
Chart Dynamics
Drivers this month
- Food and transport: +0.32 pp combined, reversing December’s moderation.
- Utilities: +0.06 pp, reflecting seasonal tariff adjustments.
- Clothing and recreation: minor contributors, both under +0.03 pp.
Policy pulse
With inflation above target for 18 consecutive months, the central bank faces a credibility test. The January print may force policymakers to postpone rate cuts until Q2 or later.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: COP weakened 0.4% against USD, 2-year TES yields rose 12 bps. The inflation surprise triggered a sell-off in local bonds and pressured the peso, as traders recalibrated rate-cut expectations.
Forward Outlook
Colombia’s inflation outlook is clouded by persistent food and energy shocks, fiscal stimulus, and external volatility. The Sigmanomics database consensus expects inflation to moderate to 4.7% by June 2026, but risks are tilted to the upside.
- Bullish scenario (20%): Inflation drops below 5% by March, driven by favorable harvests and stable oil prices. The central bank cuts rates by 50 bps in Q2, supporting growth and risk assets.
- Base case (60%): Inflation averages 5.1% in H1 2026, with gradual disinflation. Policy rates remain unchanged until May, then ease cautiously.
- Bearish scenario (20%): Food and fuel shocks persist, inflation stays above 5.5% through Q2. The central bank delays easing, and fiscal risks intensify.
Drivers this month
- El Niño weather risks could disrupt food supply in Q1–Q2.
- Global oil price swings may affect transport and energy costs.
- Fiscal slippage could stoke demand-side pressures.
Policy pulse
With inflation expectations de-anchored, the central bank’s credibility is at stake. Communication and data dependency will be critical in shaping market expectations.
Market lens
Forward rates now price in just 75 bps of cuts for 2026 (down from 125 bps pre-release). The COLCAP index and COP are likely to remain volatile, with inflation surprises driving near-term moves.
Closing Thoughts
Colombia’s January 2026 inflation print at 5.35% signals persistent price pressures and complicates the monetary easing narrative. With inflation above target for 18 months, the central bank faces a delicate balancing act between supporting growth and anchoring expectations. Fiscal and external risks remain elevated, and markets are likely to remain sensitive to inflation surprises in the months ahead.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate YoY
Colombia’s inflation data is a key driver for local and global investors. The following tradable symbols have historically shown strong correlations with Colombian inflation trends, reflecting sensitivity to monetary policy, currency moves, and risk sentiment. Each symbol is selected for its relevance to inflation dynamics and market transmission channels.
- EC (Ecopetrol S.A.): Colombia’s flagship oil producer, whose margins and share price are sensitive to inflation-driven cost pressures and COP volatility.
- AVAL (Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores): Major Colombian financial group, with earnings linked to domestic rates and inflation expectations.
- USDCOP (USD/COP): The Colombian peso’s exchange rate, which reacts sharply to inflation surprises and central bank policy shifts.
- EURCOP (EUR/COP): Euro-peso cross, reflecting both local inflation and global risk appetite.
- BTCUSD (Bitcoin/USD): Often viewed as an inflation hedge, Bitcoin’s price can move inversely to confidence in fiat currencies like COP.
| Year | Inflation Rate YoY (%) | USDCOP (avg) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2.5 | 3,700 |
| 2021 | 3.3 | 3,850 |
| 2022 | 5.6 | 4,050 |
| 2023 | 11.2 | 4,500 |
| 2024 | 7.8 | 4,150 |
| 2025 | 5.2 | 4,100 |
| Jan 2026 | 5.35 | 4,180 |
Periods of rising inflation in Colombia have historically coincided with COP depreciation against the USD, as seen in 2022–2023. The January 2026 inflation surprise has already triggered renewed pressure on the peso, reinforcing the tight link between price stability and currency performance.
FAQ
Q: What is Colombia’s latest YoY inflation rate?
A: For January 2026, Colombia’s YoY inflation rate is 5.35%, up from December’s 5.10%.
Q: How does inflation affect Colombian markets?
A: Higher inflation typically weakens the COP, raises local bond yields, and pressures equities, especially banks and consumer-facing firms.
Q: What are the main risks to Colombia’s inflation outlook?
A: Key risks include food and energy shocks, fiscal slippage, and external volatility impacting the peso and import prices.
Bottom line: Colombia’s January 2026 inflation rebound signals persistent price risks and a cautious path for monetary easing. Investors should watch food and energy trends, central bank signals, and COP moves closely.
Updated 2/7/26
- Sigmanomics database, Colombia Inflation Rate YoY, release 2026-02-06.
January’s 5.35% inflation print is up from December’s 5.10% and above the 12-month average of 5.15%. The chart below illustrates a recent reversal: after a two-month easing trend (November’s 5.51% → December’s 5.10%), inflation rebounded in January. This pattern contrasts with the gradual disinflation seen from July (4.82%) to October (5.18%), highlighting renewed volatility.
Compared to the same month last year (January 2025: 5.09%), inflation is now 0.26 pp higher. The three-month moving average has ticked up to 5.32%, suggesting that underlying pressures remain broad-based. The chart also shows that Colombia’s inflation rate has not fallen below 4.8% since July 2025, underscoring the challenge of anchoring expectations.