The latest Retail Sales Year-over-Year (YoY) figure for Colombia (CO) released on November 14, 2025, shows a striking 14.40% increase, surpassing both the market estimate of 6.20% and October’s 12.40% reading. This data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, highlights a significant acceleration in consumer spending, a key driver of Colombia’s economic momentum.

Drivers this month

• Strong growth in durable goods and food retail segments contributed approximately 0.90 percentage points (pp) to the headline figure.
• Increased urban consumption and festive season demand boosted sales volumes.
• Lower inflation rates improved real purchasing power, supporting higher retail turnover.

Policy pulse

The 14.40% growth rate is well above the central bank’s inflation target range of 3% ±1%, suggesting robust demand but also potential overheating risks if sustained. The Banco de la República has maintained a steady policy rate at 7.50%, balancing growth with inflation control.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The Colombian peso (COP/USD) strengthened by 0.30% within the first hour post-release, reflecting investor confidence. The local equity index (IGBC) rose 0.50%, while short-term bond yields edged down 5 basis points, signaling reduced risk premia.

Retail Sales YoY is a critical macroeconomic indicator reflecting consumer demand and economic health. Colombia’s 14.40% reading in November 2025 marks a notable acceleration compared to the 12.40% in October and the 12-month average of 11.30% since November 2024.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The Banco de la República’s steady policy stance has supported credit growth and consumer spending. Inflation eased to 3.20% YoY in October, down from 4.10% in mid-2025, improving real incomes. Financial conditions remain accommodative, with stable lending rates and moderate credit expansion of 8.50% YoY.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal discipline remains a priority amid rising social spending. The government’s budget deficit narrowed to 3.10% of GDP in Q3 2025, down from 3.80% a year ago, supporting macro stability. Targeted stimulus in infrastructure and social programs has indirectly boosted retail activity.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Global commodity price volatility and geopolitical tensions in Latin America pose downside risks. However, Colombia’s diversified export base and trade agreements mitigate exposure. The recent easing of trade frictions with key partners supports export-driven income, indirectly benefiting retail sales.

Historical comparisons reveal that this 14.40% growth is the strongest since the 17.90% peak in September 2025 and well above the 7.50% low recorded in April 2025. The upward trend since mid-2025 reflects improving economic fundamentals and pent-up demand post-pandemic.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: Following the release, the IGBC index gained 0.50%, while the COP/USD currency pair strengthened by 0.30%. Short-term government bond yields declined by 5 basis points, reflecting improved risk sentiment and expectations of steady monetary policy.

Looking ahead, Colombia’s retail sales growth trajectory depends on multiple factors, including domestic demand, inflation trends, and external conditions. We outline three scenarios for the next six months:

Bullish Scenario (30% probability)

• Retail Sales YoY sustains above 12%, driven by strong wage growth and stable inflation.
• Monetary policy remains accommodative, supporting credit expansion.
• Global commodity prices stabilize, boosting consumer confidence.

Base Scenario (50% probability)

• Retail Sales YoY moderates to 8–10% as inflationary pressures rise moderately.
• Monetary tightening by Banco de la República to contain inflation.
• Fiscal policy remains prudent but supportive.

Bearish Scenario (20% probability)

• Retail Sales YoY falls below 7% due to external shocks or geopolitical tensions.
• Inflation spikes, eroding real incomes and dampening consumption.
• Financial market volatility increases, tightening credit conditions.

Overall, the outlook favors continued retail strength but with caution on inflation and global risks. Policymakers must balance growth with price stability to sustain momentum.

Colombia’s November 2025 Retail Sales YoY growth of 14.40% is a clear sign of robust consumer demand and economic resilience. Supported by stable monetary policy, improving fiscal metrics, and easing inflation, the retail sector is a bright spot in the macro landscape. However, vigilance is warranted given external uncertainties and potential inflationary pressures.

Structural trends such as urbanization, digital commerce expansion, and rising middle-class incomes underpin long-run retail growth. Financial markets have responded positively, reflecting confidence in Colombia’s economic fundamentals. Continued monitoring of policy responses and global developments will be critical to sustaining this momentum.

Key Markets Likely to React to Retail Sales YoY

Retail Sales YoY data is a bellwether for Colombia’s economic health, influencing multiple asset classes. The following symbols historically track or react to this indicator’s movements:

• ECOPETROL – Colombia’s largest energy company, sensitive to domestic demand and economic growth.
• COPUSD – The Colombian peso to US dollar exchange rate, reflecting currency strength tied to economic performance.
• BANCOLOMBIA – Leading financial institution, impacted by credit growth and consumer spending trends.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often reacts to risk sentiment shifts driven by macroeconomic data.
• USDCOP – The inverse forex pair, useful for tracking peso depreciation or appreciation.

FAQs

What does the latest Colombia Retail Sales YoY figure indicate?

The 14.40% YoY growth in November 2025 indicates strong consumer demand and economic resilience in Colombia, surpassing expectations and prior months.

How does Retail Sales YoY affect Colombia’s monetary policy?

Robust retail sales can pressure inflation, influencing Banco de la República’s decisions on interest rates to balance growth and price stability.

What are the risks to Colombia’s retail sales outlook?

Risks include external shocks, geopolitical tensions, inflation spikes, and tighter financial conditions that could dampen consumer spending.

Takeaway: Colombia’s retail sales surge to 14.40% YoY in November 2025 underscores a resilient economy with strong consumer demand. While the outlook remains positive, policymakers and investors must watch inflation and external risks closely to sustain growth.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

Updated 11/14/25