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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ColombiaColombia Retail Sales YoY fell to 5.3% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Colombia Retail Sales YoY fell to 5.3% in July 2026, released September 2026, down 9.4% from June's 14.7% reading. The reading missed the 11.2% consensus by 5.9%. Retail Sales YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Retail Sales YoY is now the lowest in 21 months.
Latest Release
5.3
Actual
11.2
Consensus
14.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.3 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 11.75
Actual: 5.3
Error: +6.45
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales YoY (Colombia) was reported at 5.3% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 11.2% by 5.9%. The reading fell from the previous value of 14.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 11.54%, ranging from 5.3% to 14.9% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 11.63%, up from the prior three at 10.73%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.15%) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.97%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales YoY has averaged 8.27%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.3%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 16, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Retail Sales YoY - CO
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About Retail Sales YoY — Colombia
DEFINITION
Retail Sales YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retailers compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides insight into the strength of consumer spending and overall economic growth, making it a key metric for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a decline in consumer confidence and potential economic slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 5.3 %, consensus 11.2 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 14.7 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 14.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.72) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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