CR Current Account Report: September 2025 Release and Macro Outlook
Key Takeaways: The latest Current Account deficit for CR narrowed sharply to -115.40 million CRC in September 2025, improving from -221.80 million CRC in March 2025. This marks a significant recovery from the deep deficits seen in early 2025 and aligns better with the Sigmanomics database’s 12-month average of -258.70 million CRC. External demand stabilization and improved export performance drove this rebound. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions and tighter global financial conditions pose risks. Fiscal consolidation and cautious monetary policy will be critical to sustaining this trend. Bullish, base, and bearish scenarios range from further deficit narrowing to renewed widening amid external shocks.
Table of Contents
The Current Account for CR posted a deficit of -115.40 million CRC in September 2025, a marked improvement from the -221.80 million CRC recorded six months earlier. This figure also compares favorably to the average deficit of -258.70 million CRC over the past year, signaling a partial recovery in external balances. The narrowing deficit reflects stronger export receipts and moderated import growth amid a challenging global environment.
Drivers this month
- Export growth accelerated by 4.50% YoY, driven by agricultural and manufacturing sectors.
- Import demand softened, contracting 1.20% MoM due to subdued domestic consumption.
- Services balance improved by 8 million CRC, reflecting increased tourism inflows.
Policy pulse
The current account deficit remains above the central bank’s comfort zone of -80 million CRC but shows progress toward stabilization. Monetary policy remains cautiously restrictive to contain inflationary pressures without stifling growth. Fiscal policy tightening has helped reduce external financing needs.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The CRC appreciated 0.30% against the USD within the first hour post-release, reflecting improved external balance sentiment. Short-term bond yields declined by 5 basis points, signaling reduced risk premia.
Examining core macroeconomic indicators alongside the Current Account reveals a mixed but improving picture. GDP growth for CR is estimated at 3.10% YoY in Q3 2025, supported by export-oriented sectors. Inflation remains elevated at 6.20% YoY but shows signs of peaking. The unemployment rate held steady at 7.80%, indicating labor market resilience.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The central bank’s benchmark interest rate stands at 5.25%, unchanged since June 2025. Financial conditions tightened slightly due to global rate hikes, but domestic credit growth remains stable at 4.30% YoY. The improved current account deficit reduces external vulnerability, easing pressure on the CRC.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal consolidation efforts have reduced the budget deficit to 3.50% of GDP in mid-2025, down from 4.20% in 2024. Lower external borrowing needs complement the current account improvement, supporting sovereign creditworthiness.
This chart highlights a clear trend of external balance recovery, reversing the sharp deficit spikes seen in early 2025. The current trajectory points to a more sustainable external position, contingent on stable global demand and continued fiscal prudence.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The CRC strengthened modestly, while 2-year government bond yields fell by 5 basis points, reflecting improved confidence in external financing conditions. Currency volatility declined post-release, signaling market relief.
Looking ahead, the Current Account trajectory for CR depends on several factors, including global trade dynamics, commodity prices, and domestic policy responses. We outline three scenarios:
Bullish scenario (30% probability)
- Global demand recovers robustly, boosting exports by 6% YoY.
- Import growth remains subdued due to continued fiscal restraint.
- Current Account deficit narrows further to -80 million CRC by Q1 2026.
Base scenario (50% probability)
- Moderate global growth supports steady export gains of 3% YoY.
- Imports grow modestly with domestic demand normalization.
- Deficit stabilizes around -110 million CRC through early 2026.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Geopolitical tensions disrupt trade, reducing exports by 2% YoY.
- Rising commodity prices push import costs higher.
- Current Account deficit widens back toward -180 million CRC.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
CR’s external balance has historically been vulnerable to commodity price swings and external shocks. The recent improvement may signal a structural shift toward more diversified exports and improved competitiveness. However, long-term sustainability requires continued fiscal discipline and investment in export capacity.
The September 2025 Current Account release for CR signals a positive turnaround from the deep deficits earlier this year. While the improvement is encouraging, risks from external shocks and geopolitical uncertainty remain. Policymakers should maintain prudent fiscal and monetary stances to support this recovery. Financial markets have responded favorably, reflecting reduced external vulnerability. The coming quarters will test whether this trend can be sustained amid evolving global conditions.
Key Markets Likely to React to Current Account
The Current Account balance is a critical indicator for currency, bond, and equity markets in CR. Movements in the deficit influence exchange rates, sovereign yields, and investor sentiment. The following tradable symbols historically track or react to CR’s external balance shifts:
- USDCAD – The USD/CAD pair often reflects commodity-driven trade flows impacting CR’s external accounts.
- CRX – CR’s export-heavy equity index, sensitive to trade balance changes.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price can reflect shifts in risk sentiment tied to macroeconomic stability.
- CRB – Commodity index influencing CR’s trade balance through export prices.
- EURUSD – Euro-dollar pair impacts global trade conditions affecting CR.
FAQs
- What is the significance of the Current Account for CR?
- The Current Account measures CR’s trade and income flows with the rest of the world, indicating external balance and vulnerability to shocks.
- How does the Current Account affect CR’s currency?
- A narrower deficit typically supports currency appreciation by reducing external financing needs and improving investor confidence.
- What are the main risks to CR’s Current Account outlook?
- Risks include global demand shocks, commodity price volatility, and geopolitical tensions disrupting trade and capital flows.
Takeaway: CR’s Current Account deficit has improved significantly in September 2025, but sustaining this trend requires careful policy management amid external uncertainties.
USDCAD – USD/CAD exchange rate reflects commodity-driven trade flows impacting CR’s external accounts.
CRX – CR’s export-heavy equity index sensitive to trade balance changes.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin price reflects shifts in risk sentiment tied to macro stability.
CRB – Commodity index influencing CR’s trade balance through export prices.
EURUSD – Euro-dollar pair impacts global trade conditions affecting CR.
The Current Account deficit narrowed to -115.40 million CRC in September 2025, improving from -221.80 million CRC in March 2025 and well above the 12-month average of -258.70 million CRC. This reversal follows a steep deterioration in early 2025, when the deficit peaked at -652 million CRC in March.
Key contributors to this improvement include a 4.50% YoY rise in exports and a 1.20% MoM decline in imports. The services surplus also expanded, driven by tourism and remittances. These trends suggest a rebalancing of external flows after a period of stress.