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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Czech RepublicCzech Republic CNB Interest Rate Decision held to 3.5% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Czech Republic CNB Interest Rate Decision held to 3.5% in May 2026. The reading matched the 3.5% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 3.69%. CNB Interest Rate Decision is now the lowest in 53 months.
Latest Release
3.5
Actual
3.5
Consensus
3.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 3.5
Actual: 3.5
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CNB Interest Rate Decision (Czech Republic) was reported at 3.5% in May 2026. This matched the market consensus of 3.5% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.5%, ranging from 3.5% to 3.5% across 6 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.5%, unchanged from the prior three. Volatility over the past year (σ 0%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.39%). In March readings over the past 3 years, CNB Interest Rate Decision has averaged 4.33%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 18, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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CNB Interest Rate Decision - CZ
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About CNB Interest Rate Decision — Czech Republic
DEFINITION
The CNB Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the monetary policy decisions made by the Czech National Bank. This decision, which is announced eight times a year, determines the interest rate at which the central bank lends money to commercial banks. It is a crucial factor in shaping the country's economic landscape, as it impacts borrowing costs, inflation, and overall economic growth. Investors and businesses closely monitor this indicator to make informed decisions about their financial strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 3.5 %, consensus 3.5 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 3.5 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 3.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection.