The Czech Republic’s current account balance for November 2025 posted a robust surplus of CZK 29.36 billion, a significant improvement from the previous month’s near-neutral figure of -CZK 0.67 billion. This marks a decisive recovery from the mid-year trough in August, when the deficit peaked at -CZK 68.79 billion. The latest reading exceeds the Sigmanomics database consensus estimate of CZK 1.00 billion by a wide margin, underscoring stronger external sector resilience.

Drivers this month

• Export growth accelerated, driven by machinery and automotive sectors.
• Import demand softened amid cautious domestic consumption.
• Services balance improved, reflecting tourism and IT exports.

Policy pulse

The Czech National Bank’s recent monetary tightening, including a 25 basis point hike in the policy rate, has tempered inflation and curbed import-driven demand. This policy stance supports external balance improvements by restraining domestic consumption and import growth.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The CZK appreciated 0.40% against the EUR within the first hour post-release, reflecting renewed investor confidence in the external position. Short-term government bond yields edged lower, signaling reduced risk premia.

The current account surplus of CZK 29.36 billion in November 2025 contrasts sharply with the average monthly deficit of CZK -11.80 billion recorded over the past 12 months. This swing reflects a combination of improved trade balances and a narrowing income deficit. The export-to-GDP ratio rose to 85.20%, up from 82.70% in October, while imports contracted by 3.10% month-on-month.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The CNB’s tightening cycle, now totaling 150 basis points since early 2025, has strengthened the koruna and dampened inflationary pressures. Financial conditions remain moderately tight, with credit growth slowing to 4.20% year-on-year, supporting subdued import demand and a healthier current account.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal consolidation efforts have kept the government deficit below 3% of GDP, limiting domestic demand spillovers. Public investment in infrastructure continues to support export capacity, while prudent budget management reduces external financing needs.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Heightened geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and supply chain disruptions have posed risks to trade flows. However, the Czech Republic’s diversified export base and EU membership mitigate direct adverse impacts. Energy price volatility remains a key risk factor for the external balance.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The CZK/USD pair strengthened by 0.30% post-release, while 2-year government bond yields declined by 5 basis points, reflecting positive sentiment on external stability. Forward contracts indicate sustained koruna strength over the next quarter.

Looking ahead, the Czech current account is poised for continued surplus generation, supported by export momentum and restrained import growth. However, risks from global economic slowdown and energy market volatility could temper gains. The CNB’s monetary stance will remain pivotal in balancing inflation control with growth support.

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Robust global demand boosts exports by 5% YoY.
• Energy prices stabilize, reducing import costs.
• Current account surplus exceeds CZK 35 billion monthly.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Moderate export growth of 2-3% YoY.
• Import demand remains subdued due to monetary tightening.
• Current account surplus stabilizes around CZK 20-30 billion.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Global recession pressures exports, contracting by 2% YoY.
• Energy price spikes increase import bill.
• Current account deficit re-emerges near CZK -10 billion.

The November 2025 current account surplus marks a significant recovery for the Czech Republic’s external position. Supported by export strength and prudent monetary and fiscal policies, the external sector shows resilience amid global uncertainties. However, vigilance is warranted given geopolitical risks and commodity price volatility. Continued policy calibration will be essential to sustain external balance gains and support broader macroeconomic stability.

Since 2020, the Czech current account balance and the EURCZK exchange rate have exhibited a strong inverse correlation. Periods of current account surplus coincide with koruna appreciation against the euro, while deficits align with depreciation phases. For example, the 2025 mid-year deficit spike corresponded with EURCZK rising from 24.50 to 25.30, while the recent surplus has pushed the pair back below 24.00. This relationship underscores the current account’s role as a key driver of currency valuation and external competitiveness.

Final takeaway: The Czech Republic’s November 2025 current account surplus signals a strong external sector rebound, but sustaining this momentum requires navigating complex global risks and maintaining prudent policy frameworks.