Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
GermanyGermany Economic Sentiment fell to 28.1 in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Germany Economic Sentiment fell to 28.1 in October 2026, down 6.6 from September's 34.7 reading. The reading missed the 30.2 consensus by 2.1. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 26.61. Over the past 3 months, Economic Sentiment averaged 34.45, vs 8.87 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 40th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
28.1
Actual
30.2
Consensus
34.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±8.44
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 29.95
Actual: 28.1
Error: +1.85
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Economic Sentiment (Germany) was reported at 28.10 in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 30.20 by 2.10. The reading fell from the previous value of 34.70. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 29.57, ranging from -10.20 to 59.60 across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 32.33, up from the prior three at 8.87. Volatility over the past year (σ 21.28) is higher than the prior year (σ 19.22).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with DAX (Bearish DAX). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 8.44.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Retail Sales MoM (Nov 2) and Retail Sales YoY (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
SHARE
Economic Sentiment - DE
Loading chart data...
About Economic Sentiment — Germany
DEFINITION
index The economic sentiment index is a key financial indicator that measures the overall confidence and outlook of consumers and businesses towards the economy. It takes into account various factors such as consumer spending, business investment, and employment trends to provide a comprehensive assessment of the current economic climate. This index is widely used by investors, policymakers, and analysts to gauge the health of the economy and make informed decisions. A high economic sentiment index indicates a positive outlook, while a low index suggests a more cautious or negative sentiment.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 28.1, consensus 30.2. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 34.7. Before that (Aug 2026): 34.2.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with DAX (Bearish DAX, r=-0.44) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - DE Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | DE | Import Prices MoM | 2.1 | 1 | 1.8 | 1.95 | Low |
| 07:00 | DE | Import Prices YoY | 10.4 | 8.3 | 10.3 | 10.35 | Low |
| 08:55 | DE | Unemployment Rate | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.40 | High |
| 08:55 | DE | Unemployed Persons | 3.016 | 3.012 | 3.017 | 3.02 | Medium |
| 08:55 | DE | Employment Change | 4 | 12 | 5 | 4.50 | High |
| 09:00 | DE | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | High |
| 09:00 | DE | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1.2 | 1 | 1.1 | 1.15 | High |
| 13:00 | DE | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | -0.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.00 | Low |
| 13:00 | DE | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3 | 2.90 | High |
| 13:00 | DE | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | -0.05 | Medium |
| 13:00 | DE | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.95 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | DE | Retail Sales MoM | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.20 | High | |
| 07:00 | DE | Retail Sales YoY | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.05 | High | |