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Data from Destatis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
GermanyGermany Retail Sales YoY climbed to -0.4% in August 2026
DestatisMonthlyReleased September 2026
Germany Retail Sales YoY climbed to -0.4% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 1.8% from July's -2.2% reading. The reading missed the 0.1% consensus by 0.5%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.35%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales YoY averaged -1.35%, vs -0.17% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 10th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.4
Actual
0.1
Consensus
-2.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.75 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -0.45
Actual: -0.4
Error: -0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales YoY (Germany) was reported at -0.4% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.1% by 0.5%. The reading rose from the previous value of -2.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.36%, ranging from -2.5% to 1.8% across 11 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -1.03%, down from the prior three at 0.73%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.15%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.72%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales YoY has averaged -0.37%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/JPY (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.75%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Wholesale Prices YoY (Oct 14) and Wholesale Prices MoM (Oct 14).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Retail Sales YoY - DE
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About Retail Sales YoY — Germany
DEFINITION
Retail Sales YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retailers compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides insight into the strength of consumer spending and overall economic growth, making it a key metric for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a decline in consumer confidence and potential economic slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -0.4 %, consensus 0.1 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -2.5 %. Before that (Jun 2026): -0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/JPY (Bullish EUR, r=0.54) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - DE Events
| Thursday, October 8, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | DE | Imports MoM | 0.9 | -5.5 | 2.8 | 1.85 | Low |
| 06:00 | DE | Exports MoM | -0.8 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 0.00 | Medium |
| 06:00 | DE | Balance of Trade | 19.5 | 21.6 | 19 | 19.25 | High |
| 09:40 | DE | New Car Sales YoY | 9 | 2.6 | 4 | 6.50 | Low |
| Tuesday, October 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | DE | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.70 | Low | |
| 06:00 | DE | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | DE | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.70 | Low | |
| 06:00 | DE | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Low | |
| 12:30 | DE | Current Account | 21.2 | 17.2 | 14.85 | Low | |