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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
DenmarkDenmark Balance of Trade climbed to 40.5K in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Denmark Balance of Trade climbed to 40.5K in July 2026, released September 2026, up 15.2K from June's 25.3K reading. The print exceeded the 30K consensus by 10.5K. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 29.68K. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 28.8K, vs 29.6K in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the highest in 18 months.
Latest Release
40.5
Actual
30
Consensus
25.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±6.29 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 30
Actual: 40.5
Error: -10.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Denmark) was reported at 41 thousand in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 30 thousand by 11 thousand. The reading rose from the previous value of 25 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 31 thousand, ranging from 22 thousand to 41 thousand across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 33 thousand, up from the prior three at 33 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 5 thousand) is lower than the prior year (σ 7 thousand). In September readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 35 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 6 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 9, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Balance of Trade - DK
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About Balance of Trade — Denmark
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 40.5 K, consensus 30 K. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 28.7 K. Before that (May 2026): 28.9 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.44) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - DK Events
| Monday, October 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | DK | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | DK | Current Account | 44.4 | 38.7 | 38.70 | Low | |
| 06:00 | DK | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 06:00 | DK | Balance of Trade | 40.5 | 36.2 | 36.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | DK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |