The Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY for Denmark moderated slightly to 2.10% in November 2025, down from 2.20% in October and below the market estimate of 2.20%. This marks a modest cooling after a peak of 2.20% in August and October, yet remains elevated compared to the 12-month average of approximately 1.80%. The inflation trajectory reflects ongoing pressures from energy prices, supply chain adjustments, and domestic demand dynamics.

Drivers this month

• Energy costs contributed 0.35 percentage points (pp), down from 0.45 pp in October.
• Food prices added 0.25 pp, stable versus prior month.
• Core inflation excluding volatile items held steady at 1.50% YoY.
• Housing and shelter costs rose by 0.18 pp, a slight increase from 0.15 pp last month.

Policy pulse

The 2.10% inflation rate remains above the Danish central bank’s implicit target near 2%, signaling persistent inflationary pressures. The National Bank of Denmark is likely to maintain a cautious stance, balancing inflation containment with growth support amid global uncertainties.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The Danish krone (DKK) appreciated 0.10% against the euro within the first hour post-release, reflecting relief at the slightly softer inflation print. Short-term government bond yields edged down by 3 basis points, signaling tempered expectations for aggressive rate hikes.

Denmark’s inflation dynamics must be viewed alongside core macroeconomic indicators. GDP growth for Q3 2025 held steady at 1.20% QoQ, while unemployment remained low at 3.80%. Wage growth accelerated modestly to 3.00% YoY, supporting consumer spending but also feeding inflationary pressures.

Monetary policy & financial conditions

The National Bank of Denmark has kept its policy rate steady at 1.75% since September 2025. Financial conditions remain moderately tight, with mortgage rates averaging 3.50%. Inflation expectations for the next 12 months hover around 2.00%, consistent with the central bank’s target range.

Fiscal policy & government budget

Fiscal policy remains mildly expansionary, with the government running a deficit of 0.80% of GDP in 2025. Increased spending on green energy and social programs supports domestic demand, which may sustain inflation near current levels in the near term.

External shocks & geopolitical risks

Global energy price volatility and supply chain disruptions persist as key external risks. The ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and trade uncertainties with China add downside risks to growth but upside risks to inflation through commodity price shocks.

Drivers this month

• Energy prices contributed 0.35 pp, down from 0.45 pp in October.
• Food inflation steady at 0.25 pp.
• Housing costs increased contribution to 0.18 pp.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: EUR/DKK dipped 0.10%, reflecting market relief at the softer inflation figure. Danish 2-year yields fell 3 basis points, signaling reduced expectations for aggressive monetary tightening.

Looking ahead, Denmark’s inflation outlook balances several competing forces. Energy prices are expected to remain volatile but may ease slightly in early 2026. Wage growth and fiscal stimulus continue to support domestic demand, while global uncertainties pose risks to supply chains.

Scenario analysis

• Bullish (20% probability): Inflation falls below 1.80% by Q2 2026 as energy prices decline and supply normalizes.
• Base (60% probability): Inflation remains near 2.00% through mid-2026, supported by steady wage growth and moderate fiscal stimulus.
• Bearish (20% probability): Inflation rises above 2.50% if energy shocks intensify or geopolitical risks disrupt supply chains further.

Policy pulse

The National Bank of Denmark is likely to maintain a cautious approach, signaling readiness to adjust rates if inflation deviates significantly from target. Market pricing currently implies a 50% chance of a 25 basis point hike by mid-2026.

Market lens

Forward inflation swaps and breakeven rates suggest moderate inflation expectations, with the DKK expected to remain stable barring external shocks.

Denmark’s Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY at 2.10% in November 2025 signals persistent but slightly easing inflation pressures. The interplay of energy costs, wage growth, and fiscal policy will shape the near-term path. Policymakers face a delicate balance between containing inflation and supporting growth amid external uncertainties.

Summary

• Inflation remains above the central bank’s 2% target but shows signs of moderation.
• Monetary policy is expected to stay cautious with potential rate adjustments in 2026.
• External shocks and geopolitical risks remain key upside inflation risks.

Key tradable symbols correlated with Denmark’s inflation dynamics:

• NOVO-B – Danish pharmaceutical giant sensitive to domestic economic conditions and inflation.
• EURDKK – Exchange rate reflecting inflation and monetary policy differentials.
• BTCUSD – Crypto asset often viewed as inflation hedge, influencing risk sentiment.
• MAERSK – Shipping giant impacted by global trade and supply chain disruptions affecting inflation.
• USDSEK – Regional currency pair reflecting inflation and monetary policy trends in Scandinavia.

Key Markets Likely to React to Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY

Denmark’s inflation data influences several key markets. The Danish krone (EURDKK) often moves in response to inflation surprises due to monetary policy implications. Major Danish stocks like NOVO-B and MAERSK are sensitive to inflation-driven cost pressures and consumer demand shifts. Regional currency pairs such as USDSEK reflect broader Scandinavian inflation trends. Additionally, BTCUSD can react as investors adjust inflation hedging strategies.

Insight Box: Inflation vs. NOVO-B Stock Price Since 2020

Since 2020, NOVO-B’s stock price has shown moderate correlation with Denmark’s inflation trends. Periods of rising inflation often coincide with increased volatility in NOVO-B shares, reflecting cost pressures and consumer spending shifts. The chart below illustrates NOVO-B’s price movements alongside Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY, highlighting a tendency for stock dips during inflation spikes and recoveries as inflation stabilizes.

FAQs

What is the Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY for Denmark?

The Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY measures the annual change in consumer prices in Denmark, harmonised for EU comparison.

How does the latest inflation reading affect Denmark’s monetary policy?

The 2.10% inflation rate suggests the National Bank of Denmark will maintain a cautious stance, possibly adjusting rates if inflation deviates from target.

What are the main risks to Denmark’s inflation outlook?

Key risks include energy price volatility, geopolitical tensions, and supply chain disruptions that could push inflation higher or lower.

Takeaway: Denmark’s inflation remains elevated but shows tentative signs of easing. Policymakers and markets will closely watch energy prices and wage growth for clues on future inflation and monetary policy direction.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.