Denmark’s inflation rate for November 2025 registered at 2.10% year-over-year (YoY), a slight decline from October’s 2.30% and below the consensus estimate of 2.30%, according to the Sigmanomics database. This figure remains elevated relative to the 12-month average inflation of 1.90%, signaling persistent price pressures despite recent moderation.

Drivers this month

• Energy prices stabilized after summer volatility, contributing -0.15 percentage points (pp) to inflation moderation.
• Shelter costs rose modestly, adding 0.18 pp, reflecting steady housing demand.
• Food inflation remained steady at 0.25 pp, supported by global supply chain normalization.
• Used car prices declined slightly, subtracting -0.05 pp.

Policy pulse

The current inflation rate sits just above the Danish central bank’s implicit target near 2%, suggesting a cautious stance on monetary tightening. The National Bank of Denmark is likely to maintain current policy rates while monitoring wage growth and external shocks.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The Danish krone (DKK) appreciated marginally by 0.10% against the euro within the first hour post-release, reflecting market relief at the inflation slowdown. Short-term government bond yields edged down by 3 basis points, signaling tempered expectations for aggressive rate hikes.

Examining core macroeconomic indicators alongside inflation provides a fuller picture of Denmark’s economic health. GDP growth for Q3 2025 was reported at 1.20% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), indicating moderate expansion. Unemployment remains low at 3.80%, supporting wage growth pressures.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The National Bank of Denmark has held its policy rate steady at 1.75% since September 2025. Financial conditions remain moderately tight, with credit growth slowing to 3.50% YoY. Inflation expectations for the next 12 months hover near 2.00%, consistent with the central bank’s target range.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal policy has tightened slightly, with the government reducing the budget deficit forecast from 1.80% to 1.50% of GDP for 2025. This fiscal prudence aims to contain inflationary pressures without stifling growth.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Global energy price volatility and geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe continue to pose upside risks to inflation. Denmark’s open economy remains vulnerable to supply chain disruptions and commodity price shocks, which could reverse recent inflation gains.

Drivers this month

• Energy price stabilization contributed to a 0.15 pp reduction in inflation.
• Shelter costs increased by 0.18 pp, maintaining upward pressure.
• Food prices steady, adding 0.25 pp.
• Used car price declines subtracted 0.05 pp.

Policy pulse

The inflation rate remains slightly above the National Bank’s target, supporting a wait-and-see approach. The central bank’s forward guidance emphasizes data dependency, with no immediate rate hikes expected unless inflation accelerates.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: Danish 2-year government bond yields fell by 3 basis points, reflecting eased inflation concerns. The DKK strengthened slightly against the euro, signaling market confidence in inflation containment.

Looking ahead, Denmark’s inflation trajectory depends on several key factors, including energy prices, wage growth, and external geopolitical developments. We outline three scenarios with assigned probabilities:

Bullish Scenario (30% probability)

• Energy prices decline further due to easing global tensions.
• Wage growth remains moderate, containing cost-push inflation.
• Inflation falls toward 1.50% by mid-2026, enabling gradual monetary easing.

Base Scenario (50% probability)

• Energy prices stabilize near current levels.
• Wage growth sustains moderate upward pressure.
• Inflation holds around 2.00% through 2026, prompting steady monetary policy.

Bearish Scenario (20% probability)

• Geopolitical shocks drive energy prices higher.
• Wage-price spirals intensify, pushing inflation above 3.00%.
• Central bank tightens aggressively, risking growth slowdown.

Risks are balanced, with upside inflation pressures from external shocks countered by domestic fiscal discipline and monetary vigilance. The Sigmanomics database methodology integrates official statistics and market data to ensure robust forecasting.

Denmark’s November 2025 inflation rate of 2.10% YoY signals a modest easing from recent highs but remains above the 12-month average. Core inflation drivers such as shelter and food costs persist, while energy price stabilization offers relief. Monetary and fiscal policies are aligned to contain inflation without derailing growth. External geopolitical risks remain a wildcard, underscoring the need for vigilance.

Financial markets have so far digested the data calmly, reflecting confidence in policy frameworks. However, the balance of risks suggests that inflation dynamics will remain a key focus for policymakers and investors alike in the coming months.

Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate YoY

Denmark’s inflation data typically influences several key markets, including currency pairs, government bonds, and equities sensitive to interest rate expectations. The following symbols have historically shown strong correlations with Denmark’s inflation trends:

• EURDKK – The euro to Danish krone exchange rate reacts to inflation surprises, reflecting monetary policy expectations.
• C25 – Denmark’s benchmark stock index, sensitive to inflation-driven cost pressures and consumer demand.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin often acts as an inflation hedge, with price movements influenced by inflation data.
• USDNOK – Norway’s krone pair, correlated due to regional economic linkages and energy price exposure.
• OMX – Nordic equity index, reflecting broader regional inflation and growth trends.

FAQs

What is the current inflation rate YoY for Denmark?

The latest inflation rate for Denmark is 2.10% year-over-year as of November 2025.

How does Denmark’s inflation compare historically?

Inflation has fluctuated between 1.50% and 2.30% in 2025, with recent months showing a slight easing from summer peaks.

What factors influence Denmark’s inflation rate?

Key factors include energy prices, shelter costs, wage growth, fiscal policy, and external geopolitical risks.

Takeaway: Denmark’s inflation rate is moderating but remains above target, requiring balanced policy responses amid uncertain external risks.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.