Egypt’s Core Inflation Rate YoY Surges to 12.10% in November 2025: A Detailed Analysis
The latest Core Inflation Rate YoY for Egypt (EG) has risen sharply to 12.10% in November 2025, surpassing both the market estimate of 11.00% and the previous month’s 11.30%. This uptick signals persistent inflationary pressures despite ongoing monetary tightening. Drawing on the Sigmanomics database, this report compares recent trends with historical data, evaluates macroeconomic implications, and outlines potential scenarios for Egypt’s economic trajectory.
Table of Contents
Egypt’s core inflation rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, climbed to 12.10% YoY in November 2025. This marks a notable increase from 11.30% in October and is well above the 12-month average of approximately 11.30% since May 2025. The rise reflects sustained price pressures amid a complex macroeconomic environment.
Drivers this month
- Housing and shelter costs contributed 0.25 percentage points (pp) to the increase.
- Transportation and logistics inflation added 0.18 pp, reflecting higher fuel and freight costs.
- Core goods excluding food and energy rose by 0.30% MoM, pushing the YoY rate higher.
Policy pulse
The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) has maintained a tight monetary stance, with the overnight deposit rate at 19.25%. The current core inflation rate remains significantly above the CBE’s target band of 7% ±2 pp, indicating persistent inflationary risks and limited room for policy easing in the near term.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Egyptian pound (EGP) weakened by 0.30% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose by 15 basis points, reflecting heightened inflation risk premiums.
Core inflation is a critical gauge of underlying price pressures in Egypt’s economy. The 12.10% YoY reading is the highest since June 2025’s 13.10%, signaling a reversal from the brief dip to 10.70% in September. This volatility reflects Egypt’s exposure to both domestic and external shocks.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The CBE’s aggressive rate hikes since early 2025 have aimed to curb inflation, but real interest rates remain negative after adjusting for inflation. Credit growth has slowed to 6.50% YoY, down from 9.20% in early 2025, indicating tighter financial conditions. However, inflation expectations remain elevated, complicating the policy outlook.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal deficits remain elevated at 7.80% of GDP, driven by subsidies and public investment. The government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation faces headwinds from rising debt servicing costs amid higher inflation and interest rates. This fiscal strain limits the scope for counter-cyclical spending to support growth.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global commodity price volatility, especially in energy and food, continues to pressure Egypt’s import bill. Regional geopolitical tensions have disrupted trade routes, adding to supply chain costs. The recent depreciation of the EGP exacerbates imported inflation, feeding into core price pressures.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The EGX30 index dropped 0.80% following the release, reflecting investor concerns over prolonged inflation and its impact on corporate margins. The USD/EGP pair rose from 30.50 to 30.60, signaling currency pressure. Breakeven inflation swaps for 2 years increased by 20 basis points, indicating rising inflation expectations.
This chart highlights a clear upward trajectory in core inflation since mid-2025, reversing a short-lived dip in September. The persistence of inflation above 12% suggests entrenched price pressures, likely to influence monetary policy and financial market volatility in the coming months.
Looking ahead, Egypt’s core inflation trajectory will depend on several key factors including monetary policy effectiveness, fiscal discipline, and external conditions.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Global commodity prices stabilize or decline, easing imported inflation.
- Monetary tightening gains traction, anchoring inflation expectations.
- Fiscal reforms reduce deficit pressures, supporting currency stability.
- Core inflation falls below 10% by mid-2026.
Base scenario (55% probability)
- Inflation remains elevated around 11-12% through early 2026.
- Monetary policy remains restrictive but struggles to fully contain inflation.
- Fiscal deficits persist but are managed without major shocks.
- Gradual currency stabilization but with periodic volatility.
Bearish scenario (25% probability)
- External shocks intensify, pushing commodity prices higher.
- Fiscal slippage leads to widening deficits and debt concerns.
- Currency depreciation accelerates, fueling imported inflation.
- Core inflation breaches 13% and risks becoming entrenched.
Policy pulse
The CBE is likely to maintain or even increase policy rates in the near term to combat inflation. However, the trade-off with growth and employment will require careful calibration.
Egypt’s core inflation rate of 12.10% in November 2025 underscores persistent inflationary pressures amid a challenging macroeconomic environment. The data from the Sigmanomics database highlights a reversal of the modest easing seen earlier this year, driven by cost-push factors and structural vulnerabilities.
Monetary and fiscal policies face a delicate balancing act between taming inflation and supporting growth. External shocks and geopolitical risks add layers of uncertainty. Financial markets have reacted with increased volatility, reflecting concerns over inflation persistence.
Going forward, close monitoring of inflation drivers and policy responses will be essential. The probability-weighted scenarios suggest a cautious outlook, with risks skewed towards sustained inflationary pressures unless global and domestic conditions improve markedly.
Key Markets Likely to React to Core Inflation Rate YoY
The core inflation rate in Egypt significantly influences several key markets. The EGX30 index is sensitive to inflation as it affects corporate earnings and investment sentiment. The USD/EGP currency pair reacts strongly to inflation data, reflecting currency risk and monetary policy expectations. In fixed income, the EGTB (Egyptian government bonds) yields adjust to inflation outlooks. Additionally, global commodities like BTCUSD can act as alternative inflation hedges, while the EUR/EGP pair also shows sensitivity due to trade and investment flows.
Indicator vs. EGX30 Since 2020
Since 2020, Egypt’s core inflation rate and the EGX30 index have shown an inverse relationship during inflation surges. For example, spikes in core inflation in mid-2025 corresponded with EGX30 declines of up to 10%. This negative correlation highlights inflation’s dampening effect on equity valuations, driven by margin pressures and investor risk aversion.
| Period | Core Inflation Rate YoY (%) | EGX30 Index Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 2025 | 13.10 | -9.50 |
| Sep 2025 | 10.70 | 4.20 |
| Nov 2025 | 12.10 | -3.80 |
FAQ
- What is the current Core Inflation Rate YoY for Egypt?
- The latest figure is 12.10% for November 2025, up from 11.30% in October.
- How does core inflation affect Egypt’s monetary policy?
- Higher core inflation pressures the Central Bank of Egypt to maintain or raise interest rates to anchor inflation expectations.
- What are the risks to Egypt’s inflation outlook?
- Risks include global commodity price shocks, currency depreciation, and fiscal deficits that could entrench inflation above target levels.
Key takeaway: Egypt’s core inflation remains elevated and volatile, necessitating vigilant policy action amid external and domestic challenges.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Updated 11/13/25
EGX30 – Egypt’s benchmark stock index sensitive to inflation and economic growth.
USD/EGP – Currency pair reflecting inflation-driven exchange rate pressures.
EGTB – Egyptian government bonds, yields influenced by inflation expectations.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin as an alternative inflation hedge impacting investor sentiment.
EUR/EGP – Euro to Egyptian pound exchange rate, sensitive to trade and inflation dynamics.
Comparing the November 2025 core inflation rate of 12.10% with October’s 11.30% and the 12-month average of 11.30%, the data reveals a clear upward trend reversing the mild easing seen in September (10.70%). This resurgence is driven by persistent cost-push factors and sticky inflation components.
Historical comparisons show that the current rate is above the 2024 average of 9.80%, and close to the peak of 13.10% recorded in June 2025. The volatility underscores Egypt’s vulnerability to external shocks and domestic supply constraints.