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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
EgyptEgypt Core Inflation Rate YoY fell to 14.1% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Egypt Core Inflation Rate YoY fell to 14.1% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.8% from August's 14.9% reading. The reading matched expectations. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 2.8%. Over the past 3 months, Core Inflation Rate YoY averaged 14.85%, vs 13.97% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 66th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
14.1
Actual
14.3
Consensus
14.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.5 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 14.3
Actual: 14.1
Error: +0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.68 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core Inflation Rate YoY (Egypt) was reported at 14.1% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 14.3% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 14.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 13.21%, ranging from 11.2% to 14.9% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 14.57%, up from the prior three at 13.6%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.24%) is lower than the prior year (σ 5.96%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Core Inflation Rate YoY has averaged 16.8%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, positively correlated (Bullish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.5%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Core Inflation Rate YoY - EG
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About Core Inflation Rate YoY — Egypt
DEFINITION
The Core Inflation Rate YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services over a 12-month period, excluding volatile items such as food and energy. It provides a more accurate and stable representation of overall inflation trends, allowing businesses and policymakers to make informed decisions about economic policies and investments. This indicator is widely used by financial analysts and investors to assess the health of an economy and predict future inflation levels.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 14.1 %, consensus 14.3 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 14.9 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 14.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.68) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - EG Events
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:15 | EG | S&P Global Composite PMI | 47.2 | 48 | 48.00 | Low | |