Egypt Inflation Rate MoM: November 2025 Release and Macro Implications
Key takeaways: Egypt’s November 2025 inflation rate MoM held steady at 1.80%, matching October’s figure but below the 2.00% estimate. This marks a sustained upward trend from mid-year lows, reflecting persistent cost pressures amid tight monetary policy and fiscal consolidation. External shocks and geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on prices. Market reaction was muted, with the EGP stable and short-term yields steady. Forward risks include potential currency volatility and global commodity price shifts.
Table of Contents
Egypt’s inflation rate MoM for November 2025 was reported at 1.80%, unchanged from October’s 1.80% but below the 2.00% consensus forecast, according to the Sigmanomics database. This steady inflation pace contrasts with the volatile swings earlier in the year, where monthly inflation dipped as low as -0.50% in August before rebounding sharply. The current rate remains elevated compared to the 12-month average of approximately 1.10% since February 2025.
Drivers this month
- Food prices contributed 0.70 percentage points, reflecting ongoing supply chain disruptions.
- Energy costs added 0.50 percentage points amid global oil price volatility.
- Housing and utilities accounted for 0.30 percentage points due to seasonal demand.
- Transportation costs remained flat, offsetting some upward pressures.
Policy pulse
The inflation reading remains above the Central Bank of Egypt’s target range of 7% annualized, translating roughly to a monthly target near 0.50%. Persistent inflationary pressures justify the bank’s cautious stance on interest rates, which have been held steady at 18.75% since September 2025 to balance growth and price stability.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The EGP/USD exchange rate remained stable at 30.95, with 2-year government bond yields steady at 19.20%. Inflation breakeven rates on local inflation-linked bonds edged up 5 basis points, signaling moderate market concern over sustained inflation.
Core macroeconomic indicators provide context for the inflation print. Egypt’s GDP growth slowed to an estimated 3.20% YoY in Q3 2025, down from 3.80% in Q2, reflecting tighter financial conditions and subdued domestic demand. Unemployment remains elevated at 11.50%, limiting wage-driven inflation but sustaining cost pressures in essentials.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The Central Bank of Egypt’s monetary policy remains restrictive. The overnight deposit rate is at 18.75%, unchanged since September. Liquidity conditions are tight, with credit growth slowing to 6.50% YoY. Inflation expectations remain anchored but elevated, complicating the policy outlook.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Fiscal consolidation continues, with the government targeting a primary surplus of 1.20% of GDP in 2025. Subsidy reforms and tax adjustments have reduced fiscal deficits but also contributed to inflationary pressures, especially in energy and food sectors.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Global commodity price volatility, particularly in oil and wheat, has pressured domestic prices. Regional geopolitical tensions, including instability in neighboring countries, have disrupted trade routes and increased risk premiums, feeding into inflation persistence.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: Inflation-linked bond yields rose modestly by 5 basis points, while the EGP/USD exchange rate remained stable. Short-term interest rates held steady, reflecting market confidence in the central bank’s policy stance despite inflation persistence.
This chart highlights Egypt’s inflation trending upward since mid-2025, reversing the two-month decline in summer. The sustained 1.80% MoM rate signals entrenched price pressures, suggesting limited near-term relief for consumers and policymakers.
Looking ahead, Egypt’s inflation trajectory faces mixed risks. The baseline scenario (60% probability) projects inflation stabilizing around 1.70–1.90% MoM over the next quarter, supported by continued monetary restraint and moderate fiscal tightening.
Bullish scenario (20%)
- Global commodity prices ease sharply.
- Currency stabilizes or appreciates, reducing import costs.
- Supply chain improvements lower food and energy inflation.
- Inflation falls below 1.50% MoM by Q1 2026.
Bearish scenario (20%)
- Geopolitical tensions escalate, disrupting trade.
- Currency depreciation pressures import prices.
- Fiscal stimulus increases demand without supply response.
- Inflation rises above 2.50% MoM, risking wage-price spirals.
Policy pulse
The Central Bank of Egypt faces a delicate balance. Further rate hikes risk stalling growth, but premature easing could entrench inflation expectations. Close monitoring of inflation components and external shocks will guide policy adjustments.
Egypt’s November 2025 inflation rate MoM at 1.80% signals persistent price pressures amid a complex macroeconomic environment. Monetary and fiscal policies remain tight but face headwinds from external shocks and structural vulnerabilities. The inflation outlook is cautiously balanced, with risks skewed slightly to the upside given geopolitical uncertainties and commodity price volatility.
Investors and policymakers should watch currency trends, commodity markets, and fiscal developments closely. Inflation-linked assets and short-term government bonds may offer hedges against inflation surprises, while the central bank’s policy trajectory will remain a key market driver.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate MoM
Egypt’s inflation data influences several key markets, including local currency pairs, government bonds, and regional equities. The inflation rate directly impacts monetary policy expectations, affecting yields and currency valuations. Traders and investors monitor these markets closely for signals on economic health and policy shifts.
- EGPEUR: The Egyptian pound’s exchange rate versus the euro is sensitive to inflation-driven monetary policy changes.
- EGX30: Egypt’s benchmark stock index reacts to inflation outlooks that affect corporate earnings and consumer demand.
- EGPUSD: The USD/EGP pair reflects inflation and external balance pressures, influencing import costs and capital flows.
- BTCEGP: Bitcoin priced in EGP can serve as an inflation hedge amid currency volatility.
- ALX: Regional equities like ALX are indirectly impacted by Egypt’s inflation trends through trade and investment linkages.
Inflation Rate MoM vs. EGPUSD Exchange Rate Since 2020
Since 2020, Egypt’s monthly inflation rate and the EGPUSD exchange rate have shown a strong correlation. Periods of rising inflation often coincide with EGP depreciation, reflecting imported inflation pressures. For example, the 2023 inflation spike above 2.50% MoM aligned with a 7% depreciation in EGPUSD. The current stable inflation at 1.80% MoM corresponds with a steady EGPUSD near 30.95, suggesting market confidence in policy measures. This relationship underscores the importance of currency stability in managing inflation dynamics.
FAQs
- What does the Egypt Inflation Rate MoM indicate?
- The Egypt Inflation Rate MoM measures the monthly percentage change in consumer prices, reflecting short-term inflation trends and cost pressures.
- How does the latest inflation reading affect monetary policy?
- The steady 1.80% MoM inflation suggests persistent price pressures, supporting the central bank’s cautious stance on interest rates to balance growth and inflation control.
- Why is monitoring Egypt’s inflation important for investors?
- Inflation impacts currency value, bond yields, and equity markets, influencing investment returns and risk assessments in Egypt and the broader region.
Takeaway: Egypt’s inflation rate MoM holding steady at 1.80% signals entrenched price pressures amid tight policy and external risks, requiring vigilant macroeconomic management.
EGPEUR – Sensitive to inflation-driven monetary policy changes affecting the Egyptian pound.
EGX30 – Egypt’s benchmark equity index, impacted by inflation and consumer demand.
EGPUSD – Reflects inflation and external balance pressures influencing currency valuation.
BTCEGP – Bitcoin priced in EGP, often viewed as an inflation hedge amid currency volatility.
ALX – Regional equities influenced indirectly by Egypt’s inflation trends through trade and investment linkages.
Egypt’s inflation rate MoM for November 2025 held at 1.80%, steady from October’s 1.80% and well above the 12-month average of 1.10%. This stability follows a rebound from mid-year lows of -0.50% in August and -0.10% in July, signaling a reversal of earlier disinflationary trends.
The monthly inflation trajectory shows a clear upward trend since June’s 1.90%, interrupted only briefly by negative prints in July and August. The current print confirms persistent inflationary pressures despite monetary tightening.