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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SpainSpain Employment Change fell to 23.59K in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Spain Employment Change fell to 23.59K in September 2026, released October 2026, down 20.83K from August's 44.42K reading. The print exceeded the 17.6K consensus by 5.99K. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -5.87K. Over the past 3 months, Employment Change averaged 31.96K, vs -37.65K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 83rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
23.587
Actual
17.6
Consensus
44.419
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±18.03 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 34.8
Actual: 23.59
Error: +11.22
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Employment Change (Spain) was reported at 24 thousand in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 18 thousand by 6 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 44 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4 thousand, ranging from -36 thousand to 44 thousand across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 29 thousand, up from the prior three at -20 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 26 thousand) is lower than the prior year (σ 34 thousand).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 18 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 4, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Consumer Confidence (Oct 16) and Balance of Trade (Oct 20).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Employment Change - ES
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About Employment Change — Spain
DEFINITION
Employment Change is a key economic indicator that measures the net change in the number of people employed in a given period of time. It provides valuable insights into the health of the job market and overall economic growth. A positive employment change indicates an increase in job opportunities, while a negative change suggests a decline in employment. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 23.59 K, consensus 17.6 K. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 44.42 K. Before that (Jul 2026): 19.5 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - ES Events
| Wednesday, October 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | ES | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3.1 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.10 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.60 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.9 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 4.90 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 5 | 4.6 | 5 | 5.00 | Low |