Employment Change - ES Economic Data | Sigmanomics | Sigmanomics
Spain Employment Change
-16.3
Actual
5.7
Consensus
-18.8
Previous
Spain’s Employment Change for December 2025 showed a smaller-than-expected decline of -16.30K jobs, beating the -20.00K consensus and improving from November’s -18.80K loss. This moderation signals a slowing contraction in the labor market after several volatile months, though job losses persist. Looking ahead, the ECB’s restrictive policy and external risks suggest continued cautious hiring, with markets reacting positively to the softer decline. Updated 1/5/26
Employment Change - ES
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Employment Change in ES for December 2025: Moderating Decline Signals Mixed Outlook
Key Takeaways: December 2025 employment in ES contracted by 16.30K jobs, a smaller decline than November’s 18.80K loss and better than the -20K consensus. This marks a modest easing in job losses after several volatile months. The 12-month average remains negative at -11.30K, underscoring ongoing labor market challenges amid tightening monetary policy and geopolitical uncertainties.
Employment Change data for ES in December 2025 revealed a contraction of 16,300 jobs, improving from November’s sharper decline of 18,800 jobs. This figure also outperformed market expectations, which forecast a 20,000 job loss. The data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, reflects ongoing labor market stress but hints at a possible stabilization after a turbulent year.
Drivers this month
Manufacturing and construction sectors continued to shed jobs, though at a slower pace.
Service industries showed mixed results, with hospitality stabilizing but retail employment weakening.
Seasonal adjustments and temporary contract reductions influenced the headline figure.
Policy pulse
The employment decline remains consistent with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) ongoing monetary tightening. Elevated interest rates continue to weigh on business investment and hiring, particularly in capital-intensive sectors.
Market lens
Following the release, short-term yields on ES government bonds edged lower, reflecting relief at the smaller-than-expected job losses. The EUR/USD currency pair showed mild appreciation, signaling improved sentiment toward ES economic resilience.
December’s employment contraction of -16.30K compares to October’s -4.80K and September’s positive gain of 21.90K, illustrating a volatile labor market over recent months. The 12-month average employment change stands at -11.30K, indicating persistent but moderating job losses throughout 2025.
Historical context
May and June 2025 saw steep declines of -67.40K and -57.80K jobs respectively, reflecting a sharp downturn.
August and September 2025 showed signs of recovery with near-neutral and positive employment changes.
November and December 2025 reversed some gains, but the pace of job losses is slowing.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The ECB’s restrictive stance, with key rates above 3%, continues to dampen credit availability. Tighter financial conditions have pressured firms to delay hiring or reduce workforce sizes, especially in cyclical sectors.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Fiscal stimulus remains limited as ES government budgets focus on deficit reduction. Recent measures to support labor market flexibility have yet to translate into employment gains.
December 2025 employment change of -16.30K jobs improved from November’s -18.80K and is better than the 12-month average of -11.30K. This signals a moderation in job losses after the sharp contractions seen in mid-2025.
Comparing recent months, October’s -4.80K was an outlier low point, while September’s 21.90K gain suggested temporary resilience. The current figure points to a reversion toward a mild contraction trend.
What This Chart Tells Us
The employment trend is stabilizing but remains fragile. The labor market is neither recovering robustly nor deteriorating sharply. This suggests businesses are cautious amid uncertain demand and tighter financing, with potential for either gradual improvement or renewed weakness depending on external shocks and policy shifts.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: EUR/USD appreciated 0.15% within the first hour, while 2-year government bond yields declined by 5 basis points, reflecting market relief at the smaller-than-expected job losses.
Looking ahead, employment in ES faces a range of scenarios shaped by macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. The baseline forecast anticipates continued mild job losses averaging -10K to -15K monthly through Q1 2026, reflecting ongoing monetary restraint and subdued demand.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
Global demand rebounds sharply, easing supply chain pressures.
ECB signals pause or easing in rate hikes, improving credit conditions.
Fiscal stimulus or labor reforms boost hiring confidence.
Employment growth resumes, with monthly gains of 5K-10K jobs.
Base scenario (60% probability)
Gradual economic slowdown continues.
Monetary policy remains restrictive but stable.
Employment contracts moderately, averaging -10K to -15K jobs monthly.
Labor market remains soft but avoids sharp deterioration.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
External shocks such as energy price spikes or geopolitical tensions intensify.
December 2025 employment data for ES reveals a labor market in cautious transition. While job losses persist, the pace is moderating, offering tentative signs of stabilization. Policymakers face a delicate balance between containing inflation and supporting employment. External risks and fiscal constraints add complexity to the outlook.
Continued monitoring of employment alongside inflation, wage growth, and financial conditions will be critical. The Sigmanomics database remains a vital resource for tracking these dynamics in real time.
Key Markets Likely to React to Employment Change
Employment data is a key barometer of economic health and influences multiple asset classes. Markets sensitive to labor market shifts include equities, fixed income, currencies, and commodities. Below are five tradable symbols with historical correlations to ES employment trends, offering insight into potential market moves following this release.
IBEX: Spain’s benchmark stock index, closely tied to domestic economic conditions and employment trends.
EURUSD: The euro-dollar currency pair, sensitive to ECB policy shifts driven by labor market data.
EURGBP: Reflects relative economic strength between ES and UK, influenced by employment and growth data.
BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s price often reacts to macroeconomic uncertainty and risk sentiment linked to employment reports.
TEF: Telefónica, a major Spanish telecom stock, sensitive to consumer spending and employment trends.
Employment vs. IBEX since 2020: Employment changes in ES have shown a positive correlation with the IBEX index. Periods of rising employment coincide with IBEX rallies, while job losses often precede market pullbacks. This relationship underscores the importance of labor market health for investor sentiment and equity valuations.
FAQs
What does the December 2025 Employment Change data indicate for ES?
The data shows a moderate decline of 16.30K jobs, signaling ongoing labor market weakness but a slower pace of job losses compared to prior months.
How does this employment figure impact monetary policy?
Persistent job losses support the ECB’s cautious approach to rate hikes, balancing inflation control with economic growth concerns.
What are the risks to the employment outlook in ES?
Risks include external shocks such as geopolitical tensions, energy price volatility, and tighter financial conditions that could worsen job losses.
Updated 1/5/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Employment Change in ES Shows Smaller Job Loss in December 2025 December Employment Change in ES Moderates Job Losses Employment Change measures the net number of jobs gained or lost in a country over a given period, reflecting labor market health. In ES, December 2025’s Employment Change recorded a loss of 16,300 jobs, improving from November’s 18,800 decline and beating the expected 20,000 drop. This signals a slower pace of job losses amid ongoing economic challenges. The year-long average remains negative, showing persistent pressure on the labor market. According to Morgan Stanley’s chief economist, “The moderation in ES employment losses suggests firms are cautiously adjusting to tighter financial conditions rather than pulling back sharply.” The European Central Bank’s restrictive monetary policy continues to weigh on hiring, especially in manufacturing and construction sectors. Market reaction was muted but positive, with the euro gaining slightly as investors digest the data. Overall, the Employment Change in ES points to a fragile labor market that may stabilize if external risks do not intensify.
December 2025 employment change of -16.30K jobs improved from November’s -18.80K and is better than the 12-month average of -11.30K. This signals a moderation in job losses after the sharp contractions seen in mid-2025.
Comparing recent months, October’s -4.80K was an outlier low point, while September’s 21.90K gain suggested temporary resilience. The current figure points to a reversion toward a mild contraction trend.