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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SpainSpain GDP Growth Rate YoY held to 2.7% in April 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased July 2026
Spain GDP Growth Rate YoY held to 2.7% in April 2026, released July 2026. The print exceeded the 2.5% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 2.89%. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the highest in 6 months.
Latest Release
2.7
Actual
2.5
Consensus
2.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.25 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 2.5
Actual: 2.7
Error: -0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Spain) was reported at 2.7% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2.5% by 0.2%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.77%, ranging from 2.6% to 3.1% across 7 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.7%, down from the prior three at 2.73%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.15%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.28%). In July readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 2.8%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, positively correlated (Bullish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.25%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Aug 18) and Inflation Rate YoY (Aug 28).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - ES
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Spain
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 2.7 %, consensus 2.5 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 2.7 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 2.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.47) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - ES Events
| Thursday, August 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | ES | Core CPI YoY | 3 | 2.9 | 3 | 3.00 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0 | 0.6 | -0.1 | -0.05 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.85 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3 | 2.9 | 3 | 3.00 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | CPI YoY | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.55 | Medium |
| 07:00 | ES | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.25 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | CPI MoM | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.25 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | HICP MoM | 0 | 0.6 | -0.1 | -0.05 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | HICP YoY | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.85 | Medium |
| 07:00 | ES | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.55 | Low |