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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SpainSpain GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 2.7% in July 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased October 2026
Spain GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 2.7% in July 2026, released October 2026, up 0.1% from June's 2.6% reading. The reading matched the 2.7% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 0.1%. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the highest in 9 months.
Latest Release
2.7
Actual
2.7
Consensus
2.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.2 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 2.65
Actual: 2.7
Error: -0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Spain) was reported at 2.7% in October 2026. This matched the market consensus of 2.7% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.69%, ranging from 2.6% to 2.8% across 7 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.67%, unchanged from the prior three. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.06%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.28%). In October readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 2.97%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.2%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2) and Consumer Confidence (Nov 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - ES
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Spain
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 2.7 %, consensus 2.7 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 2.7 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 2.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.48) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - ES Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:15 | ES | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 51 | 50.8 | 50.90 | Medium | |
| 11:00 | ES | New Car Sales YoY | 10.2 | 13.5 | 16.20 | Low | |
| 12:00 | ES | New Car Sales YoY | 10.2 | 13.5 | 16.20 | Low | |
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | ES | Consumer Confidence | 84.1 | 83.4 | 83.40 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | ES | Employment Change | 23.587 | 25.3 | 45.20 | High | |
| 08:00 | ES | Tourist Arrivals YoY | 9.2 | 1.2 | -2.25 | Low | |
| 08:15 | ES | S&P Global Services PMI | 58.3 | 57.2 | 58.90 | Medium | |
| 08:15 | ES | S&P Global Composite PMI | 56.8 | 56 | 57.40 | Low | |