Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SpainSpain GDP Growth Rate YoY held to 2.7% in April 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased July 2026
Spain GDP Growth Rate YoY held to 2.7% in April 2026, released July 2026. The print exceeded the 2.5% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 2.89%. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the highest in 6 months.
Latest Release
2.7
Actual
2.5
Consensus
2.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.25 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 2.5
Actual: 2.7
Error: -0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Spain) was reported at 2.7% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2.5% by 0.2%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.77%, ranging from 2.6% to 3.1% across 7 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.7%, down from the prior three at 2.73%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.15%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.28%). In July readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 2.8%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.25%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and Employment Change (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
SHARE
GDP Growth Rate YoY - ES
Loading chart data...
About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Spain
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 2.7 %, consensus 2.5 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 2.7 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 2.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.63) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - ES Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | ES | CPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | HICP YoY | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.75 | Medium |
| 07:00 | ES | CPI YoY | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.35 | Medium |
| 07:00 | ES | HICP MoM | -0.1 | 0.6 | -0.2 | -0.15 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.95 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.60 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.45 | Medium |
| 07:00 | ES | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.65 | High |
| 07:00 | ES | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | -0.1 | 0.6 | -0.2 | -0.15 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.75 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.60 | High |
| 07:00 | ES | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.65 | Medium |
| 07:00 | ES | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium |
| 11:00 | ES | Business Confidence | -2.6 | -2.4 | -2.7 | -2.65 | Medium |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | ES | Current Account | 1.84 | 1.88 | 4.5 | 3.17 | Low |