Gross Domestic Product QOQ - ES Economic Data | Sigmanomics
Spain Gross Domestic Product QoQ
Latest Release
0.8
Actual
0.6
Consensus
0.6
Previous
Spain’s Gross Domestic Product QoQ for December 2025 came in at 0.80%, beating the 0.60% consensus and reversing a two-month plateau. This 0.20 percentage point increase from November’s 0.60% signals renewed economic expansion and broad-based sectoral strength. Looking ahead, Spain’s outperformance may prompt closer ECB scrutiny and bolster market confidence in Spanish equities and the euro. Updated 1/30/26
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Gross Domestic Product QOQ - ES
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Spain’s GDP for December 2025 rose 0.8% QoQ, beating forecasts and reversing a two-month plateau. Growth momentum outpaces the eurozone average, with broad-based sectoral gains and positive market response.
Spain’s GDP Growth Accelerates to 0.8% in December 2025: Macro and Market Implications
Spain’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for December 2025 posted a robust 0.8% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) increase, according to the latest Sigmanomics database release. This marks a notable acceleration from October’s 0.6% reading and signals renewed economic momentum as the country enters 2026.
Spain’s GDP expanded by 0.8% QoQ in December 2025, outpacing both consensus estimates (0.6%) and the previous two months’ readings (October and November: 0.6% each)[1]. This print marks the highest quarterly growth since September 2025, when GDP also rose 0.8%. Compared to December 2024, when GDP growth was 0.5%, the current figure underscores Spain’s resilience amid eurozone headwinds.
Drivers this month
Services sector contributed an estimated 0.32 percentage points, led by tourism and business services.
Manufacturing rebounded, adding 0.18 pp, reversing a two-quarter contraction.
Construction and public investment jointly contributed 0.12 pp, reflecting fiscal stimulus effects.
Policy pulse
The 0.8% GDP growth sits well above the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2025 eurozone average projection (0.5%). Spain’s outperformance may influence ECB policy calibration, especially if inflationary pressures re-emerge.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: EUR/USD spiked 0.2% higher in the first hour after the print, while IBEX 35 futures gained 0.4%. Spanish government bond yields tightened by 3 bps, reflecting improved growth sentiment and reduced risk premia.
Foundational Indicators
Spain’s December 2025 GDP print of 0.8% QoQ builds on a steady trend: March 2025 (0.8%), April (0.6%), June (0.6%), September (0.8%), October (0.6%), and November (0.6%)[1]. The 12-month average stands at 0.67%, making December’s reading a clear upside outlier.
Drivers this month
Private consumption rose 1.1% QoQ, buoyed by real wage gains and easing energy prices.
Exports increased 0.9%, with strong demand from France and Germany offsetting weakness in Asia.
Government spending remained supportive, up 0.5% QoQ.
Policy pulse
Monetary policy remains accommodative, with the ECB maintaining rates at 3.75%. Spain’s fiscal deficit narrowed to 3.8% of GDP in Q4 2025, aided by higher tax receipts and lower pandemic-related outlays.
Market lens
Spanish equities outperformed eurozone peers post-release. The EUR/USD pair’s uptick reflects both improved Spanish fundamentals and a modest repricing of ECB rate expectations.
Chart Dynamics
December’s 0.8% GDP growth outstripped both November’s 0.6% and the 12-month average of 0.67%. The chart below illustrates a clear upward inflection after a two-month plateau, with December’s print matching the previous high in September 2025.
Compared to the prior six months, Spain’s GDP trajectory is now trending above its post-pandemic mean. Notably, the last three quarters (September, October, November) saw alternating 0.8% and 0.6% prints, suggesting a pattern of resilience and periodic acceleration.
Spain GDP QoQ (%), Mar 2025 – Dec 2025
What This Chart Tells Us: Spain’s GDP growth is trending upward, reversing a two-month lull and signaling broad-based economic momentum. The December print’s return to 0.8% suggests renewed strength heading into 2026, with upside risks to consensus forecasts.
Drivers this month
Tourism receipts (+8% YoY) and services exports were key contributors.
Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2, the first expansion since Q2 2025.
Construction output rebounded on public infrastructure projects.
Policy pulse
With GDP growth outpacing the eurozone, Spain’s government may face calls to tighten fiscal policy in 2026. The ECB’s dovish stance could be tested if Spanish inflation picks up alongside growth.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: EUR/USD spiked 0.2% higher, IBEX 35 futures rose 0.4%, and Spanish 10-year yields fell 3 bps. Market participants interpreted the data as a sign of Spain’s economic leadership within the bloc.
Forward Outlook
Spain’s growth prospects for Q1 2026 are robust, with leading indicators (retail sales, PMI, consumer confidence) all pointing upward. However, risks remain: a potential ECB policy shift, fiscal consolidation pressures, and external shocks from global trade tensions or energy markets.
Scenario analysis
Bullish (30%): GDP growth sustains at 0.8–1.0% QoQ, driven by strong domestic demand and export gains.
Base (55%): Growth moderates to 0.6–0.7% as fiscal support wanes and external demand normalizes.
Bearish (15%): Growth slips below 0.5% amid global shocks or abrupt ECB tightening.
Policy pulse
Spain’s government is expected to maintain a gradual fiscal consolidation path, targeting a deficit below 3.5% of GDP by end-2026. The ECB’s next moves will be closely watched, especially if Spanish inflation re-accelerates.
Market lens
Markets are pricing in a modest upside bias for Spanish assets, with equities and the euro likely to benefit from continued outperformance. Bond spreads may tighten further if growth momentum persists.
Closing Thoughts
Spain’s December 2025 GDP print marks a decisive return to above-trend growth, with broad-based sectoral contributions and positive market spillovers. While risks remain, the macro backdrop is increasingly constructive, positioning Spain as a eurozone outperformer into 2026.
Key Markets Likely to React to Gross Domestic Product QoQ
Spain’s GDP surprises often ripple through currency, equity, and bond markets. The following symbols are historically sensitive to Spanish macro data, reflecting direct or indirect exposure to growth, risk sentiment, and eurozone policy shifts. Each is selected for its strong correlation with Spanish economic momentum or its role as a regional benchmark.
ITX – Inditex, Spain’s retail giant, typically rallies on strong domestic demand and GDP upside.
SAN – Banco Santander, a bellwether for Spanish financials and credit conditions.
EURUSD – The euro/dollar pair, highly responsive to eurozone growth differentials and ECB policy shifts.
EURGBP – Tracks eurozone vs. UK growth and is sensitive to Spanish data surprises.
ETHEUR – Ethereum/Euro, which can reflect risk appetite and eurozone macro sentiment in digital assets.
Indicator vs. ITX since 2020:
Year
Spain GDP QoQ (%)
ITX Price Change (%)
2020
-5.2
-21.4
2021
2.7
+34.1
2022
1.9
+12.8
2023
2.3
+18.6
2024
1.7
+9.2
2025
2.5*
+15.4*
*2025 figures annualized from quarterly data. The strong positive correlation highlights ITX’s sensitivity to Spanish GDP trends, with outsized gains during periods of above-trend growth.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does Spain’s December 2025 GDP print mean for investors?
Spain’s 0.8% QoQ GDP growth signals renewed momentum, supporting equities like ITX and SAN, and strengthening the euro. Investors may see further upside if growth persists.
How does this GDP reading compare to previous months?
December’s 0.8% growth outpaces October and November’s 0.6%, and is above the 12-month average of 0.67%, marking a clear acceleration.
What are the main risks to Spain’s growth outlook?
Key risks include ECB policy tightening, fiscal consolidation, and external shocks such as energy price spikes or global trade disruptions.
Bottom line: Spain’s December 2025 GDP print marks a return to above-trend growth, with broad-based sectoral gains and positive market response. The outlook for 2026 is constructive, but vigilance on policy and external risks remains essential.
Author: Sigmanomics Editorial Team
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Updated 1/30/26
Sigmanomics database, Spain GDP QoQ, release 1/30/2026.
Eurostat, ECB, and Spanish National Statistics Institute (INE) for sectoral and historical data.
Economic Calendar - ES Events
Friday, March 13, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.5
2.4
2.5
2.52
Low
08:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
-0.4
0.4
0.42
Low
08:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.30
Low
08:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
2.6
2.7
2.73
Low
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
-0.8
0.4
0.37
Low
08:00
ES
HICP YoY
2.5
2.4
2.5
2.52
Medium
08:00
ES
CPI
0.4
-0.4
0.4
0.38
Low
08:00
ES
HICP MoM
0.4
-0.8
0.4
0.40
Low
07:00
ES
CPI
-
2.6
2.7
2.68
Low
07:00
ES
HICP MoM
-
0.4
0.4
0.40
Low
07:00
ES
HICP YoY
-
2.5
2.5
2.52
Medium
Thursday, March 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Industrial Production YoY
0.3
-0.3
1.5
1.17
Low
Wednesday, March 4, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:15
ES
HCOB Composite PMI
51.5
52.9
53.4
52.80
Low
08:15
ES
HCOB Services PMI
51.9
53.5
53.8
53.25
Medium
08:15
ES
Services PMI
51.9
53.5
52.9
52.60
Medium
08:00
ES
Tourist Arrivals YoY
1.2
0.4
1
0.22
Low
Tuesday, March 3, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Employment Change
3.584
30.4
-10
-8.84
Medium
Monday, March 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:50
ES
New Car Sales YoY
7.5
1.1
1.8
0.90
Low
08:15
ES
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
50
49.2
49.8
49.47
Medium
08:15
ES
Manufacturing PMI
50
49.2
49.8
49.45
Medium
Friday, February 27, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
ES
Current Account
1.8
0.21
2
1.92
Low
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.32
Low
08:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.20
Medium
08:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
-0.4
0.3
0.32
Medium
08:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.53
Low
08:00
ES
HICP YoY
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.32
Medium
08:00
ES
HICP MoM
0.4
-0.8
0.3
0.30
Low
Thursday, February 26, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
ES
Business Confidence
-2.6
-3.1
-3.2
-2.95
Medium
Wednesday, February 25, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Producer Price Index YoY
-2.9
-3
-3.2
-3.98
Low
Tuesday, February 24, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
ES
Consumer Confidence
80.5
75.9
76
76.07
Medium
Thursday, February 19, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ES
Balance of Trade
-5.57
-5.68
-4.9
-5.14
Medium
Friday, February 13, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
2.3
2.9
2.4
2.40
Low
08:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.4
0.3
-0.4
-0.38
Low
08:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.63
Low
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.8
0.3
-0.7
-0.73
Low
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.4
3
2.5
2.52
Low
08:00
ES
HICP MoM
-0.8
0.3
-0.7
-0.70
Low
08:00
ES
HICP YoY
2.4
3
2.5
2.52
Medium
08:00
ES
CPI
2.3
2.9
2.4
2.38
Medium
Friday, February 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Industrial Production YoY
-0.3
4.6
4
3.67
Low
Wednesday, February 4, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:15
ES
HCOB Services PMI
53.5
57.1
57.2
56.65
Medium
08:15
ES
HCOB Composite PMI
52.9
55.6
55.7
55.10
Low
08:15
ES
Services PMI
53.5
57.1
56.6
56.30
Medium
Tuesday, February 3, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Employment Change
30.4
-16.3
15
16.16
Medium
08:00
ES
Tourist Arrivals YoY
0.4
2.1
4.5
3.72
Low
Monday, February 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ES
New Car Sales YoY
1.1
-2.2
2.5
1.60
Low
08:15
ES
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
49.2
49.6
49.8
49.47
Medium
08:15
ES
Manufacturing PMI
49.2
49.6
49.9
49.55
Medium
Friday, January 30, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
ES
Consumer Confidence
75.9
76
77
77.07
Medium
09:00
ES
Current Account
0.21
7.18
5.1
5.01
Low
08:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.4
0.3
-0.2
-0.18
Medium
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
-0.7
0.3
-0.6
-0.63
Low
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
2.5
3
2.5
2.52
Low
08:00
ES
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.65
High
08:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
2.4
2.9
2.5
2.50
Medium
08:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.43
Low
08:00
ES
HICP MoM
-0.7
0.3
-0.8
-0.80
Low
08:00
ES
HICP YoY
2.5
3
2.4
2.42
Medium
08:00
ES
Gross Domestic Product YoY
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.68
Low
08:00
ES
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.65
Medium
Thursday, January 29, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ES
Business Confidence
-3
-3.4
-3.4
-3.15
Medium
08:00
ES
Retail Sales MoM
-0.8
1
0.8
0.55
Low
08:00
ES
Retail Sales YoY
2.9
6
5.5
5.45
Low
Tuesday, January 27, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Unemployment Rate
9.93
10.45
10
9.96
Medium
Tuesday, January 20, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
ES
Balance of Trade
-5.68
-4.69
-5.4
-5.64
Medium
Thursday, January 15, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3
3.2
3
3.02
Low
08:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.32
Low
08:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.63
Low
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0
0.3
0.27
Low
08:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
2.9
3
2.9
2.90
Low
08:00
ES
HICP MoM
0.3
0
0.3
0.30
Low
08:00
ES
HICP YoY
3
3.2
3
3.02
Medium
08:00
ES
CPI
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.28
Low
Friday, January 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ES
Consumer Confidence
76
78.7
79
79.07
Medium
08:00
ES
Industrial Production YoY
4.5
1.2
1
0.67
Low
Tuesday, January 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:15
ES
HCOB Services PMI
57.1
55.6
54.8
54.25
Medium
08:15
ES
HCOB Composite PMI
55.6
55.1
54.5
53.90
Low
08:15
ES
Services PMI
57.1
55.6
54.8
54.50
Medium
Monday, January 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
Employment Change
-16.3
-18.8
5.7
6.86
High
Friday, January 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
ES
Consumer Confidence
76
78.7
79
79.07
Medium
12:00
ES
New Car Sales YoY
-2.2
12.9
7.5
6.60
Low
11:00
ES
New Car Sales YoY
-2.2
12.9
7.5
6.60
Low
08:15
ES
HCOB Manufacturing PMI
49.6
51.5
51.2
50.87
Medium
08:15
ES
Manufacturing PMI
49.6
51.5
51.2
50.85
Medium
08:00
ES
Tourist Arrivals YoY
2.1
3.2
2.9
2.12
Low
Tuesday, December 30, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
ES
Current Account
7.18
4.16
2.6
2.52
Low
08:00
ES
HICP YoY
3
3.2
3
3.02
Medium
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0
0.2
0.17
Low
08:00
ES
Retail Sales MoM
1
0
0.4
0.15
High
08:00
ES
CPI
2.9
3
2.8
2.78
Medium
08:00
ES
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.32
Medium
08:00
ES
Retail Sales YoY
6
3.9
3.6
3.55
High
08:00
ES
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY
3
3.2
3
3.02
Low
08:00
ES
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.53
Low
08:00
ES
Inflation Rate YoY
2.9
3
2.8
2.80
Medium
Tuesday, December 23, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ES
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.65
Low
08:00
ES
Producer Price Index YoY
-2.5
0.8
0.9
0.13
Low
08:00
ES
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.80
Low
08:00
ES
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.65
Medium
08:00
ES
Gross Domestic Product YoY
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.77
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Spain GDP QoQ Growth Surges to 0.80 Percent in December 2025 December 2025 Spain GDP QoQ Report Highlights Strong Economic Momentum Gross Domestic Product QoQ measures the change in the value of all goods and services produced by Spain’s economy from one quarter to the next, reflecting short-term growth trends. Fast facts for Spain’s latest GDP QoQ: 0.80% growth in December 2025, surpassing the 0.60% consensus estimate, and marking an increase from the previous quarter’s 0.60%. The data was released on January 30, 2026. Spain’s GDP QoQ growth for December 2025 accelerated notably, reversing a two-month stagnation and signaling renewed economic strength. This outperformance relative to the eurozone average reflects broad gains across services, manufacturing, and construction sectors. Morgan Stanley’s chief European economist noted, “Spain’s stronger GDP QoQ print highlights resilient domestic demand and improving export conditions, which should support the ECB’s cautious stance on monetary tightening.” Market reaction was positive, with the euro strengthening and Spanish equities gaining. Overall, Spain’s GDP QoQ figure for December 2025 suggests the economy is entering 2026 with solid momentum despite external uncertainties.
Chart Dynamics
December’s 0.8% GDP growth outstripped both November’s 0.6% and the 12-month average of 0.67%. The chart below illustrates a clear upward inflection after a two-month plateau, with December’s print matching the previous high in September 2025.
Compared to the prior six months, Spain’s GDP trajectory is now trending above its post-pandemic mean. Notably, the last three quarters (September, October, November) saw alternating 0.8% and 0.6% prints, suggesting a pattern of resilience and periodic acceleration.