Spain’s Latest GDP QoQ Release: A Steady Yet Moderated Growth Path
Table of Contents
Spain’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 0.60% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, as reported by the Sigmanomics database on October 29, 2025. This figure met market consensus but marked a slowdown from the 0.80% growth recorded in Q2. Over the past year, Spain’s quarterly GDP growth has oscillated between 0.60% and 0.80%, reflecting a moderate but consistent expansion trajectory.
Drivers this month
- Domestic consumption contributed approximately 0.35 percentage points (pp), supported by resilient retail sales and services.
- Investment growth slowed to 0.10 pp, reflecting cautious business sentiment amid tighter credit conditions.
- Net exports subtracted 0.05 pp due to weaker external demand and supply chain disruptions.
Policy pulse
The 0.60% growth aligns with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) inflation target zone, suggesting the economy is neither overheating nor contracting. The ECB’s recent rate hikes have begun to moderate credit growth, but inflation remains near 2.50%, above the 2% target.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The EUR/USD pair dipped 0.15% within the first hour post-release, reflecting cautious investor sentiment. Spanish 2-year government bond yields rose 5 basis points, signaling modest risk repricing.
Core macroeconomic indicators underpinning Spain’s GDP growth reveal a mixed but stable picture. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation held steady at 2.50% YoY in September, while unemployment edged down slightly to 12.80%, its lowest in two years. Industrial production grew 0.40% MoM, indicating ongoing manufacturing resilience despite global headwinds.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The ECB’s key interest rate currently stands at 3.75%, up from 3.25% six months ago. Tighter financial conditions have increased borrowing costs, particularly impacting small and medium enterprises. Credit growth slowed to 3.20% YoY, down from 4.10% earlier in 2025.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Spain’s government maintained a moderately expansionary fiscal stance, with a 2025 deficit target of 3.80% of GDP. Recent stimulus measures focused on green energy investments and digital infrastructure, supporting medium-term productivity gains.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and supply chain disruptions continue to weigh on export growth. Energy price volatility remains a risk, with Spain’s reliance on imported gas exposing it to external shocks.
What This Chart Tells Us: Spain’s GDP growth is trending in a stable but moderated range, reversing the sharper gains seen in early 2025. The data signals a maturing expansion phase, with risks tilted slightly to the downside due to external uncertainties and tighter financial conditions.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: Spanish equity indices, including the IBEX, fell 0.30% post-release, reflecting investor caution. The EUR/USD currency pair weakened slightly, while sovereign spreads widened marginally.
Looking ahead, Spain’s GDP growth faces a mix of supportive and constraining factors. The baseline forecast projects a steady 0.50–0.70% QoQ growth over the next two quarters, supported by ongoing fiscal stimulus and gradual easing of supply bottlenecks.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Stronger-than-expected export recovery driven by easing geopolitical tensions.
- Acceleration in private investment due to improved credit availability.
- Inflation moderates, allowing the ECB to pause rate hikes, boosting consumer confidence.
Base scenario (60% probability)
- GDP growth stabilizes around 0.60% QoQ, reflecting balanced domestic demand and external headwinds.
- Fiscal policy remains supportive but constrained by EU deficit rules.
- Monetary policy tightens moderately, keeping inflation near target.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Renewed geopolitical shocks disrupt trade and energy supplies.
- Inflation spikes force aggressive ECB tightening, dampening consumption.
- Credit conditions tighten further, slowing investment and hiring.
Policy pulse
Monetary and fiscal policies will be critical in navigating these scenarios. The ECB’s cautious stance and Spain’s targeted fiscal measures aim to sustain growth without stoking inflation.
Spain’s Q3 GDP growth of 0.60% QoQ confirms a steady but moderated expansion phase. The economy balances resilient domestic demand against external and financial headwinds. Policymakers face the challenge of sustaining growth amid inflation pressures and geopolitical risks. Financial markets remain cautious, pricing in a range of outcomes. The next quarters will test Spain’s ability to maintain momentum while adapting to evolving global conditions.
Market lens
Investors should monitor key indicators such as inflation trends, ECB policy signals, and export performance. The interplay of these factors will shape Spain’s macroeconomic trajectory and market sentiment.
Key Markets Likely to React to Gross Domestic Product QoQ
Spain’s GDP growth data typically influences a range of financial markets, from equities to currencies and bonds. The following symbols have shown strong historical correlations with Spain’s economic performance and are likely to react to GDP releases:
- IBEX – Spain’s benchmark equity index, sensitive to domestic growth prospects.
- EURUSD – The euro-dollar currency pair, reflecting cross-border capital flows and ECB policy.
- EURGBP – Euro to British pound, influenced by regional economic divergences.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often reacts to macroeconomic uncertainty and risk sentiment.
- BBVA – A major Spanish bank, sensitive to credit conditions and economic growth.
FAQ
- What is the latest GDP QoQ growth rate for Spain?
- The most recent GDP growth rate for Spain is 0.60% quarter-on-quarter for Q3 2025.
- How does Spain’s GDP growth compare historically?
- Spain’s GDP growth has ranged between 0.60% and 0.80% QoQ over the past year, indicating moderate but stable expansion.
- What are the main risks to Spain’s economic outlook?
- Key risks include geopolitical tensions, inflation pressures, tighter monetary policy, and supply chain disruptions.
Takeaway: Spain’s economy continues to grow at a moderate pace, balancing internal demand with external challenges. Policymakers and markets will watch closely for signals on inflation and global risks to gauge the sustainability of this growth.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Spain’s Q3 2025 GDP growth of 0.60% QoQ matches the previous quarter’s estimate but is down from the 0.80% recorded in Q2. The 12-month average quarterly growth stands at 0.67%, indicating a slight deceleration in momentum. This moderation reflects a balance between resilient domestic demand and external headwinds.
Comparing the current print with the last six quarters, the economy has maintained a narrow growth band between 0.60% and 0.80%, suggesting stability but limited upside. The slowdown from Q2’s 0.80% was driven mainly by weaker net exports and subdued investment.