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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SpainSpain Gross Domestic Product YoY held to 2.7% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Spain Gross Domestic Product YoY held to 2.7% in April 2026, released July 2026. The print exceeded the 2.5% consensus by 0.2%. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 0.1%. Gross Domestic Product YoY is now the highest in 6 months.
Latest Release
2.7
Actual
2.5
Consensus
2.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 9 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 2.5
Actual: 2.7
Error: -0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Spain) was reported at 2.7% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2.5% by 0.2%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.77%, ranging from 2.6% to 3.1% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.7%, down from the prior three at 2.73%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 9 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and Employment Change (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - ES
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Spain
DEFINITION
Spain's Gross Domestic Product YoY for June came in at 2.700000%, matching the previous reading and beating the 2.500000% estimate. June's 2.7% held steady from May's 2.7%, indicating stable economic growth without acceleration or deceleration. Market focus now shifts to upcoming monetary policy decisions amid steady GDP performance. Updated 7/30/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 2.7 %, consensus 2.5 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 2.7 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 2.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP, r=0.41) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - ES Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | ES | CPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | HICP YoY | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.75 | Medium |
| 07:00 | ES | CPI YoY | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.35 | Medium |
| 07:00 | ES | HICP MoM | -0.1 | 0.6 | -0.2 | -0.15 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.95 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.60 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.45 | Medium |
| 07:00 | ES | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.65 | High |
| 07:00 | ES | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | -0.1 | 0.6 | -0.2 | -0.15 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.75 | Low |
| 07:00 | ES | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.60 | High |
| 07:00 | ES | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.65 | Medium |
| 07:00 | ES | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium |
| 11:00 | ES | Business Confidence | -2.6 | -2.4 | -2.7 | -2.65 | Medium |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | ES | Current Account | 1.84 | 1.88 | 4.5 | 3.17 | Low |