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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SpainSpain Unemployment Rate climbed to 10.18% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Spain Unemployment Rate climbed to 10.18% in July 2026, released October 2026, up 0.31% from June's 9.87% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 10.98%.
Latest Release
10.18
Actual
9.9
Consensus
9.87
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.31 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 9.9
Actual: 10.18
Error: -0.28
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Unemployment Rate (Spain) was reported at 10.18% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 9.9% by 0.28%. The reading rose from the previous value of 9.87%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 9.99%, down from the prior three at 10.7%. In October readings over the past 3 years, Unemployment Rate has averaged 10.61%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, positively correlated (Bullish EU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.31%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2) and Consumer Confidence (Nov 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Unemployment Rate - ES
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About Unemployment Rate — Spain
DEFINITION
The Unemployment Rate is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage of the total labor force that is currently without a job and actively seeking employment. It is used to assess the health of the job market and the overall state of the economy. A high unemployment rate can indicate a weak economy, while a low unemployment rate can suggest a strong and growing economy. This data is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 10.18 %, consensus 9.9 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 9.87 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 10.83 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - ES Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:15 | ES | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 51 | 50.6 | 50.70 | Medium | |
| 11:00 | ES | New Car Sales YoY | 10.2 | 13.5 | 16.20 | Low | |
| 12:00 | ES | New Car Sales YoY | 10.2 | 13.5 | 16.20 | Low | |
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | ES | Consumer Confidence | 84.1 | 83.4 | 83.40 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | ES | Employment Change | 23.587 | 25.3 | 45.20 | High | |
| 08:00 | ES | Tourist Arrivals YoY | 9.2 | 1.2 | -2.25 | Low | |
| 08:15 | ES | S&P Global Services PMI | 58.3 | 57.5 | 59.20 | Medium | |
| 08:15 | ES | S&P Global Composite PMI | 56.8 | 56 | 57.40 | Low | |