Chile’s retail sales for November 2025 declined by 0.30% month-over-month (MoM), according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database. This figure contrasts with October’s robust 1.40% increase and outperforms the consensus estimate of a 0.60% drop. The data covers nationwide retail activity and reflects consumer spending trends during the month of November, compared to October 2025.

Drivers this month

• Moderate pullback in discretionary spending amid rising borrowing costs
• Stable food and essential goods sales cushioning overall decline
• Seasonal effects from early holiday shopping patterns

Policy pulse

The retail sales contraction aligns with the Central Bank of Chile’s ongoing monetary tightening cycle. Higher interest rates have begun to temper consumer credit growth, impacting retail demand. Inflation remains above target, but the pace of price increases has slowed, suggesting a gradual normalization of financial conditions.

Market lens

Following the release, the Chilean peso (CLP) showed mild appreciation against the US dollar, reflecting relief at the smaller-than-expected sales decline. Local equity indices initially dipped but recovered as investors digested the mixed signals.

Chile’s retail sales performance must be viewed in the context of broader macroeconomic indicators. The 0.30% MoM decline in November follows a volatile pattern over the past year. Earlier in 2025, retail sales swung from a 2.10% rise in February to a sharp 2.10% drop in August, reflecting sensitivity to external shocks and domestic policy shifts.

Historical comparisons

• November 2025: -0.30% MoM vs. October 2025: 1.40%
• October 2025: 1.40% MoM vs. September 2025: 0.40%
• 12-month average (Dec 2024–Nov 2025): 0.10% MoM
• Year-over-year (Nov 2025 vs. Nov 2024): approximately flat, indicating stagnation

Monetary policy & financial conditions

The Central Bank of Chile has raised policy rates steadily since mid-2024, pushing the benchmark rate to 7.50% by November 2025. This tightening aims to curb inflation, which remains above the 3% target band but has moderated from peaks above 5%. Higher borrowing costs have dampened consumer credit growth, directly impacting retail sales.

Fiscal policy & government budget

Fiscal policy remains moderately expansionary, with government spending focused on social programs and infrastructure. However, tighter fiscal discipline is expected in 2026 to stabilize public debt, limiting stimulus to consumer demand.

External shocks & geopolitical risks

Global commodity price volatility, particularly copper, Chile’s main export, continues to influence economic sentiment. Recent geopolitical tensions in key trade partners have introduced uncertainty, affecting business investment and consumer confidence.

What This Chart Tells Us

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The Chilean peso (CLP) strengthened 0.30% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while the IPSA equity index dipped 0.20% before recovering. Breakeven inflation rates edged lower, signaling market expectations for slower price growth ahead.

Bullish scenario (20% probability)

Retail sales rebound in December and early 2026 due to easing inflation and stabilizing interest rates. Consumer confidence improves with fiscal support, driving a return to positive MoM growth above 1%. This scenario supports stronger GDP growth and equity market gains.

Base scenario (60% probability)

Retail sales remain flat to slightly negative in the near term, reflecting ongoing monetary restraint and cautious consumer spending. Inflation gradually declines toward target, and fiscal policy remains neutral. Growth stabilizes around 0.20% MoM, with moderate risks from external shocks.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

Further retail sales contraction due to renewed inflation spikes or geopolitical disruptions. Tighter credit conditions and fiscal tightening depress consumer demand, risking a mild recession. Equity markets and the CLP weaken amid risk aversion.

Structural & long-run trends

Chile’s retail sector is undergoing transformation with increased e-commerce penetration and shifting consumer preferences toward services and essentials. Demographic changes and urbanization will shape demand patterns, requiring adaptation by retailers and policymakers.

November 2025 retail sales data from the Sigmanomics database reveals a nuanced picture of Chile’s consumer sector. The mild 0.30% contraction signals a pause after a brief recovery, influenced by tighter monetary policy and external uncertainties. While risks remain, the overall outlook is cautiously balanced, with structural shifts offering both challenges and opportunities for the retail landscape.

Key Markets Likely to React to Retail Sales MoM

Chile’s retail sales data is closely watched by currency traders, equity investors, and commodity markets. The following symbols historically track or influence the retail sales indicator:

• USDCOP – The USD/Colombian Peso pair often moves in tandem with regional economic sentiment, impacting Chile’s currency flows.
• IPSA – Chile’s main stock index, sensitive to domestic consumption trends.
• CLPUSD – The Chilean Peso vs. US Dollar exchange rate, directly affected by retail sales and macroeconomic data.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price can reflect broader risk appetite, indirectly influenced by economic data.
• CENCOSUD – A major Chilean retail conglomerate, whose stock price correlates with retail sector performance.

FAQ

What does Chile’s Retail Sales MoM indicate?

It measures the monthly change in retail sales, reflecting consumer spending trends and economic health.

How does retail sales affect Chile’s economy?

Retail sales drive GDP growth, influence inflation, and affect monetary policy decisions.

Why is the November 2025 retail sales data important?

It signals consumer demand trends amid tightening monetary policy and external uncertainties.

Final takeaway: Chile’s November retail sales contraction signals a cautious consumer environment amid monetary tightening, with balanced risks for 2026 growth.

Updated 12/31/25

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.