CR’s unemployment rate for November 2025 registered at 5.70%, a significant decline from October’s 7.40%, according to the latest release on December 18, 2025, from the Sigmanomics database. This figure also undercuts market expectations, which forecasted a 7.40% rate. The drop represents a 1.70 percentage point month-over-month (MoM) improvement and is the lowest reading since early 2023.

Drivers this month

• Robust job creation in services and manufacturing sectors.
• Seasonal hiring ahead of year-end holidays.
• Improved consumer confidence boosting retail employment.

Policy pulse

The unemployment rate now sits below the central bank’s estimated natural rate of 6.50%, suggesting tightening labor market conditions that could sustain wage pressures. This complicates the monetary policy stance amid ongoing inflation concerns.

Market lens

Financial markets reacted positively, with the local currency strengthening and short-term bond yields edging higher, reflecting expectations of a more hawkish monetary policy response.

Examining core macroeconomic indicators alongside the unemployment rate reveals a mixed but cautiously optimistic picture. Inflation remains elevated at 4.80% year-over-year, slightly above the central bank’s 4.50% target. GDP growth for Q3 2025 was revised upward to 3.20% annualized, supported by domestic consumption and export resilience.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The central bank has maintained its policy rate at 5.25% since September 2025 but signaled readiness to tighten further if labor market strength translates into wage-driven inflation. Credit growth remains moderate, with bank lending expanding 4.10% YoY, supporting business investment.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal policy remains constrained by a 3.80% of GDP deficit target for 2025. Recent government spending focused on infrastructure and social programs has supported employment but limited room for aggressive stimulus. Tax revenues have improved, reflecting stronger economic activity.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Global supply chain disruptions have eased, but geopolitical tensions in key trade partner regions pose ongoing risks. Commodity price volatility, especially in energy, could impact inflation and production costs.

Drivers this month

• Strong hiring in export-oriented manufacturing.
• Recovery in tourism-related services post-pandemic.
• Government employment programs accelerating labor market absorption.

Policy pulse

The sharp decline in unemployment tightens labor market slack, increasing the risk of wage inflation. The central bank may weigh this data heavily in upcoming rate decisions.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The local currency (CRC/USD) appreciated 0.30% within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose 12 basis points, reflecting hawkish repricing.

Looking ahead, the unemployment rate’s trajectory will depend on several factors. We outline three scenarios:

Bullish Scenario (30% probability)

• Continued job growth driven by export expansion and domestic demand.
• Unemployment falls below 5.00% by Q1 2026.
• Monetary policy remains accommodative, supporting investment.

Base Scenario (50% probability)

• Unemployment stabilizes around 5.50-6.00% through mid-2026.
• Monetary tightening proceeds cautiously to balance inflation and growth.
• Fiscal policy maintains moderate stimulus amid budget constraints.

Bearish Scenario (20% probability)

• External shocks disrupt trade and investment, slowing job creation.
• Unemployment creeps back above 6.50% by late 2026.
• Monetary policy tightens aggressively, risking recession.

Risks & Opportunities

Upside risks include stronger-than-expected global demand and successful fiscal reforms. Downside risks stem from geopolitical tensions, commodity price shocks, and potential financial market volatility.

November 2025’s unemployment rate of 5.70% represents a meaningful improvement in CR’s labor market. This signals robust economic activity but also heightens inflationary pressures, complicating the policy outlook. Policymakers face a delicate balance between sustaining growth and containing inflation. Financial markets have responded favorably so far, but vigilance is warranted amid external uncertainties.

Continued monitoring of wage trends, inflation data, and geopolitical developments will be critical to assessing the sustainability of this labor market recovery.

Key Markets Likely to React to Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate is a core barometer of economic health, influencing multiple asset classes. Below are five tradable symbols historically sensitive to CR’s labor market data:

• CRBANK – Major domestic bank; loan growth and credit risk tied to employment trends.
• USDCAD – USD/CAD currency pair; sensitive to cross-border trade and commodity-driven employment.
• EURCRC – Euro to CR currency; reflects investor sentiment on CR’s economic outlook.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin; risk sentiment proxy, often inversely correlated with economic uncertainty.
• CRIND – Industrial sector ETF; employment in manufacturing impacts performance.

FAQ

What does the November 2025 unemployment rate indicate about CR’s economy?

The 5.70% rate signals a tightening labor market and stronger economic activity compared to prior months.

How might this unemployment data affect monetary policy?

Lower unemployment increases inflation risks, potentially prompting the central bank to raise interest rates.

Why is the unemployment rate important for investors?

It reflects economic health, influencing market sentiment, currency strength, and sector performance.

Final takeaway: The sharp drop in CR’s unemployment rate to 5.70% in November 2025 marks a pivotal moment, signaling robust economic momentum but also raising inflation and policy challenges ahead.