Indonesia's Consumer Confidence for November 2025 Climbs to 124.00, Signaling Renewed Optimism
Key Takeaways: Indonesia’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rose to 124.00 in November 2025, surpassing estimates of 122.00 and improving from October’s 121.20. This uptick reflects growing consumer optimism amid easing inflationary pressures and stable monetary policy. However, external geopolitical tensions and fiscal constraints temper the outlook. The data suggests a cautiously bullish consumer environment heading into 2026, with risks balanced between sustained growth and potential external shocks.
Table of Contents
Indonesia’s Consumer Confidence for November 2025 registered at 124.00, marking a 2.30% increase from October’s 121.20 and exceeding market expectations of 122.00. This figure also stands well above the six-month average of 117.60, signaling a rebound from the mid-year softness observed between June and October. Year-over-year, the index remains slightly below February’s peak of 127.20 but shows a clear recovery trajectory after a dip in mid-2025.
Drivers this month
- Improved labor market conditions with unemployment steady at 5.10%
- Moderation in inflation to 3.80% YoY, easing cost pressures
- Stable Rupiah exchange rate supporting purchasing power
- Government stimulus measures boosting consumer spending
Policy pulse
Bank Indonesia has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 5.25%, balancing inflation control with growth support. The current consumer confidence level aligns with the central bank’s inflation target range of 3-4%, suggesting accommodative monetary conditions remain appropriate.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) strengthened 0.30% against the USD in the first hour post-release, while the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) rose 0.50%, reflecting positive sentiment.
Consumer confidence is a vital barometer of economic health, closely linked to household consumption, which accounts for roughly 57% of Indonesia’s GDP. The November 2025 reading of 124.00 indicates consumers are more willing to spend, anticipating stable incomes and manageable inflation.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
Bank Indonesia’s steady policy stance has helped anchor inflation expectations. The core inflation rate has moderated from 4.10% in August to 3.80% in November, supporting real income growth. Financial conditions remain favorable with credit growth at 11.20% YoY, underpinning consumer financing.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
The government’s fiscal deficit narrowed to 2.50% of GDP in Q3 2025, aided by higher tax revenues and controlled spending. Targeted subsidies and social assistance programs have bolstered household incomes, contributing to the rise in consumer confidence.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Heightened geopolitical tensions in Southeast Asia and global supply chain disruptions pose downside risks. However, Indonesia’s diversified export base and resilient domestic demand mitigate immediate external shocks.
Drivers this month
- Shelter and utilities contributed 0.15 points to the index
- Durable goods sentiment improved by 0.10 points
- Food and beverage sector sentiment remained stable
Policy pulse
The index’s rise coincides with Bank Indonesia’s steady interest rate policy and inflation nearing the target band, reinforcing consumer purchasing power.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The IDR/USD pair strengthened by 0.30%, while the JCI gained 0.50%, reflecting investor confidence in domestic demand resilience.
This chart highlights a clear rebound in consumer confidence after a mid-year slump, signaling renewed optimism among Indonesian households. The upward trend suggests consumers are increasingly comfortable with spending, which should support GDP growth in the near term.
Looking ahead, Indonesia’s consumer confidence trajectory depends on several factors. A bullish scenario (30% probability) envisions sustained inflation control below 4%, continued fiscal stimulus, and stable geopolitical conditions, pushing the index above 127 by Q1 2026. This would support robust consumption growth and GDP expansion above 5%.
The base case (50% probability) assumes moderate inflation around 4%, steady monetary policy, and manageable external risks, with consumer confidence stabilizing near current levels (123-125). Growth would remain steady but cautious.
The bearish scenario (20% probability) involves inflation spikes above 5%, tighter monetary policy, or escalation in geopolitical tensions, which could depress consumer confidence below 115, dampening consumption and slowing economic growth.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Indonesia’s expanding middle class, urbanization, and digital economy growth underpin a long-term upward trend in consumer confidence. However, structural challenges such as income inequality and infrastructure gaps remain constraints.
Indonesia’s November 2025 Consumer Confidence reading of 124.00 signals a positive shift in household sentiment after months of uncertainty. Supported by stable monetary policy, easing inflation, and targeted fiscal measures, consumers appear more willing to spend. However, external geopolitical risks and inflation volatility warrant caution. Policymakers and investors should monitor these dynamics closely as consumer sentiment remains a key driver of Indonesia’s economic momentum heading into 2026.
Key Markets Likely to React to Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence data often influences key Indonesian financial markets, reflecting shifts in economic sentiment and spending power. The following tradable symbols historically correlate with Indonesia’s consumer sentiment trends and are likely to react to the November 2025 release:
- JCI – Jakarta Composite Index, a broad equity market indicator sensitive to domestic consumption trends.
- USDTWD – USD/TWD currency pair, reflecting regional currency dynamics that can influence Indonesian trade and investment flows.
- IDRUSD – Indonesian Rupiah to US Dollar, directly impacted by shifts in consumer confidence and capital flows.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin to USD, a proxy for risk appetite which often moves inversely to consumer confidence in emerging markets.
- BBCA – Bank Central Asia, Indonesia’s largest private bank, sensitive to consumer credit demand and economic sentiment.
Consumer Confidence vs. JCI Since 2020
Since 2020, Indonesia’s Consumer Confidence Index and the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) have shown a strong positive correlation, with confidence shifts often preceding equity market moves. Periods of rising consumer optimism, such as early 2021 and late 2025, coincide with JCI rallies, underscoring the index’s role as a leading economic indicator. This relationship highlights the importance of consumer sentiment data for equity investors focused on Indonesia.
FAQs
- What is the significance of Indonesia’s Consumer Confidence Index?
- The Consumer Confidence Index measures household optimism about the economy, influencing spending and economic growth.
- How does consumer confidence affect Indonesia’s economy?
- Higher confidence typically leads to increased consumption, which drives GDP growth given consumption’s large share of the economy.
- What factors influence changes in consumer confidence in Indonesia?
- Key factors include inflation, employment, monetary and fiscal policies, geopolitical risks, and financial market conditions.
Takeaway: Indonesia’s November 2025 consumer confidence rebound to 124.00 signals growing household optimism, supporting a cautiously positive economic outlook amid balanced risks.
Updated 12/9/25
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The November 2025 Consumer Confidence Index of 124.00 represents a 2.30% increase from October’s 121.20 and is well above the 12-month average of 118.40. This upward movement reverses a four-month decline from June through October, where the index bottomed at 115.00 in October.
Comparing recent months, the index rose steadily from 117.50 in June to 118.10 in August, dipped to 115.00 in October, and then surged in November. This volatility reflects shifting consumer sentiment amid inflation fluctuations and policy adjustments.