Israel's Consumer Confidence for November 2025 Dips to -15.48, Signaling Growing Economic Caution
Key Takeaways: November's Consumer Confidence in Israel fell to -15.48, missing estimates of -10.00 and declining from October's -12.36. This marks a reversal after a brief improvement last month but remains above the lows seen mid-year. The data reflects mounting concerns amid tightening monetary policy, fiscal pressures, and external geopolitical risks. Forward-looking indicators suggest cautious consumer behavior may persist into early 2026, with implications for domestic demand and growth.
Table of Contents
Israel's Consumer Confidence for November 2025 registered at -15.48, according to the latest release on December 10, 2025, from the Sigmanomics database. This figure fell short of the consensus estimate of -10.00 and declined from October's reading of -12.36. The drop signals a renewed sense of caution among Israeli consumers after a notable rebound in confidence during the previous month.
Drivers This Month
- Rising inflationary pressures, particularly in housing and energy costs, weighed on sentiment.
- Monetary tightening by the Bank of Israel increased borrowing costs, dampening consumer optimism.
- Heightened geopolitical tensions in the region contributed to uncertainty.
Policy Pulse
The Bank of Israel’s recent rate hikes, aimed at curbing inflation, have tightened financial conditions. This has translated into higher mortgage and credit costs, directly impacting household budgets and consumer spending plans.
Market Lens
Following the release, the ILSIILS currency pair showed mild depreciation, reflecting investor caution. Meanwhile, the TA35 index experienced a slight pullback, mirroring concerns about near-term domestic demand.
Consumer Confidence is a critical barometer of household sentiment and spending propensity. The November 2025 reading of -15.48 compares unfavorably to October's -12.36, marking a 25.30% month-over-month decline. However, it remains significantly better than the mid-year troughs, such as June's -25.11 and July's -24.73.
Historical Context
- November 2025: -15.48
- October 2025: -12.36
- September 2025: -20.68
- 12-month average (Dec 2024 - Nov 2025): approximately -18.50
Macroeconomic Indicators
Inflation remains elevated at 4.20% year-over-year as of November, pressuring real incomes. Unemployment held steady at 3.80%, but wage growth has lagged inflation, eroding purchasing power. Retail sales growth slowed to 1.10% month-over-month in November, consistent with the dip in confidence.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal tightening measures, including reduced subsidies and higher taxes enacted earlier in 2025, continue to weigh on disposable income. The government’s budget deficit narrowed slightly to 3.20% of GDP in Q3 2025, but public spending restraint may constrain stimulus options.
What This Chart Tells Us
Bullish Scenario (20% Probability)
Inflation moderates faster than expected, allowing the Bank of Israel to pause rate hikes. Consumer confidence stabilizes around -10, supporting a rebound in retail sales and domestic demand.
Base Scenario (60% Probability)
Inflation remains sticky near 4%, prompting continued monetary tightening. Consumer confidence hovers between -15 and -12, with subdued spending growth and cautious household behavior through Q1 2026.
Bearish Scenario (20% Probability)
Geopolitical tensions escalate, and global economic slowdown pressures exports. Confidence falls below -20, triggering a sharper contraction in consumption and slowing GDP growth.
Risks & Opportunities
- Upside: Fiscal stimulus or easing geopolitical risks could boost sentiment.
- Downside: Prolonged inflation and tighter credit conditions may deepen consumer pessimism.
November’s consumer confidence reading of -15.48 highlights the fragile state of Israeli household sentiment amid persistent inflation and monetary tightening. While better than mid-year lows, the renewed dip signals caution as the economy enters 2026. Policymakers face a delicate balance between controlling inflation and supporting growth. Financial markets are likely to remain sensitive to shifts in consumer sentiment, which will be a key driver of near-term economic momentum.
Key Markets Likely to React to Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence in Israel is a bellwether for domestic demand and overall economic health. Key markets that historically track this indicator include the TA35 stock index, which reflects corporate earnings sensitivity to consumer spending. The ILSIILS currency pair often reacts to shifts in economic sentiment, influencing export competitiveness. Additionally, the USDILS pair is sensitive to monetary policy expectations shaped by confidence trends. In the crypto space, BTCUSD can reflect risk appetite changes linked to consumer sentiment. Lastly, the ILBANK sector is impacted by credit demand fluctuations tied to confidence levels.
Consumer Confidence vs. TA35 Index Since 2020
Since 2020, the TA35 index has shown a positive correlation with Israel’s consumer confidence, with confidence dips often preceding short-term market pullbacks. For example, the mid-2025 confidence trough coincided with a 7% correction in TA35. This relationship underscores the importance of consumer sentiment as a leading indicator for equity market performance in Israel.
FAQ
- What does Israel’s Consumer Confidence measure?
- It gauges household optimism about the economy, spending, and financial conditions, influencing consumption trends.
- Why did confidence decline in November 2025?
- Higher inflation, rising interest rates, and geopolitical risks contributed to increased economic caution among consumers.
- How does consumer confidence affect Israel’s economy?
- Lower confidence typically leads to reduced spending, slowing economic growth and impacting corporate earnings and employment.
Final Takeaway: Israel’s November 2025 consumer confidence decline signals cautious households navigating inflation and tighter credit, posing challenges for near-term growth.
Updated 12/10/25
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
November's Consumer Confidence at -15.48 contrasts with October's -12.36 and remains above the 12-month average of -18.50. This indicates a partial recovery from the summer lows but a renewed dip in sentiment heading into year-end.
The chart below illustrates the volatility in confidence over the past eight months, highlighting a sharp decline in mid-2025 followed by a tentative rebound and recent setback.