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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South KoreaSouth Korea Retail Sales MoM climbed to 3.6% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
South Korea Retail Sales MoM climbed to 3.6% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 5.4% from August's -1.8% reading. The print exceeded the 1.2% consensus by 2.4%. Retail Sales MoM has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales MoM averaged -2.1%, vs -0.27% in the prior 3-month window. Retail Sales MoM is now the highest in 36 months.
Latest Release
3.6
Actual
1.2
Consensus
-1.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.08 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -0.1
Actual: 3.6
Error: -3.7
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales MoM (South Korea) was reported at 3.6% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.2% by 2.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of -1.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.18%, ranging from -3.6% to 3.6% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -0.2%, up from the prior three at -0.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.54%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.17%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales MoM has averaged 1.03%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2) and Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Retail Sales MoM - KR
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About Retail Sales MoM — South Korea
DEFINITION
Retail Sales MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retail stores in a given month compared to the previous month. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic growth, making it a crucial tool for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive MoM growth in retail sales indicates a strong consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a slowdown in economic activity. Retail Sales MoM is widely used to assess the health of the retail sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 3.6 %, consensus 1.2 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -1.8 %. Before that (Jul 2026): -2.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - KR Events
| Sunday, November 1, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | KR | Balance of Trade | 42.5 | 49.97 | 37.24 | 39.87 | Low |
| 00:00 | KR | Imports YoY | 36 | 26 | 39.9 | 37.95 | Low |
| 00:00 | KR | Exports YoY | 93.7 | 83.7 | 93.2 | 93.45 | Medium |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | KR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 53.9 | 54.2 | 54.50 | Medium | |
| 23:00 | KR | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.80 | Medium | |
| 23:00 | KR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.15 | Low | |
| Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 23:00 | KR | Current Account | 46.11 | 40 | 47.52 | Low | |