Mexico's retail sales for November 2025 rose by 0.40% month-over-month (MoM), exceeding the consensus estimate of 0.30% and rebounding from a flat reading in October 2025, according to the latest data from the Sigmanomics database. This marks a notable improvement in consumer spending, a key driver of Mexico’s economic growth, especially as the country navigates a complex macroeconomic environment marked by inflationary pressures and external uncertainties.

Drivers this month

• Increased consumer demand in urban centers, particularly Mexico City and Monterrey.
• Stronger sales in durable goods and food sectors.
• Seasonal effects ahead of the holiday season supporting discretionary spending.

Policy pulse

The 0.40% gain comes amid a cautious monetary policy stance by Banco de México, which has maintained interest rates at 11.25% to combat persistent inflation near 6.50%. Retail sales growth above expectations suggests some resilience in household consumption despite tighter financial conditions.

Market lens

Following the release, the Mexican peso (MXN) appreciated modestly against the US dollar, reflecting improved sentiment on domestic demand. Equity markets showed mild gains, particularly in consumer discretionary sectors.

Retail sales are a critical barometer of domestic demand and consumer confidence. November’s 0.40% MoM increase compares favorably to October’s flat 0.00% and marks a reversal from the slight deceleration observed in September and August, which averaged 0.10% MoM growth. The 12-month average growth rate for retail sales currently stands at approximately 0.30% MoM, indicating that November’s figure is above trend.

Comparative context

• November 2025: 0.40% MoM
• October 2025: 0.00% MoM
• September 2025: 0.10% MoM
• 12-month average (Dec 2024–Nov 2025): 0.30% MoM
• Year-over-year (Nov 2025 vs. Nov 2024): Estimated 4.50%

Monetary policy & financial conditions

Banco de México’s high policy rate regime continues to weigh on credit growth and borrowing costs. Despite this, retail sales growth suggests that consumer spending is being supported by stable employment and wage gains, offsetting some of the drag from tighter financial conditions. Inflation remains sticky, but recent moderation in core inflation could allow for a gradual easing of monetary policy in 2026.

Fiscal policy & government budget

The Mexican government’s fiscal stance remains moderately expansionary, with targeted social spending and infrastructure investments supporting household incomes. However, fiscal space is constrained by rising debt service costs, limiting the scope for large stimulus measures.

What This Chart Tells Us

Looking ahead, Mexico’s retail sales trajectory faces several potential scenarios:

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Continued easing of inflation and stable employment boost real incomes.
• Monetary policy gradually loosens, lowering borrowing costs.
• Retail sales accelerate to 0.50–0.70% MoM growth in early 2026.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Retail sales maintain moderate growth around 0.30–0.40% MoM.
• Monetary policy remains restrictive but stable.
• External demand and remittances provide steady support.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Inflation surprises on the upside, eroding purchasing power.
• Global economic slowdown reduces export income and remittances.
• Retail sales stall or contract, dipping below 0.00% MoM.

External shocks & geopolitical risks

Mexico remains exposed to US economic fluctuations and trade uncertainties. Any disruption in NAFTA/USMCA relations or global supply chains could dampen consumer confidence. Additionally, volatility in oil prices and geopolitical tensions in Latin America pose downside risks.

November 2025’s retail sales data from the Sigmanomics database reveals a resilient consumer sector in Mexico, outperforming expectations with a 0.40% MoM gain. This rebound after a flat October reading underscores the importance of domestic demand in sustaining economic growth amid tight monetary policy and external headwinds. While risks remain, the data supports a cautiously optimistic outlook for Mexico’s near-term economic trajectory.

Monitoring upcoming inflation prints, employment data, and external trade developments will be critical to assessing whether this momentum can be sustained into 2026.

Key Markets Likely to React to Retail Sales MoM

Mexico’s retail sales data is closely watched by currency traders, equity investors, and fixed income markets. The following five symbols historically track or influence the retail sales indicator’s market impact:

• USDMXN – The Mexican peso’s exchange rate against the US dollar often reacts to retail sales as a proxy for economic health.
• BIMBOA.MX – A leading Mexican consumer goods stock sensitive to domestic consumption trends.
• WALMEX.MX – Retail giant whose sales performance correlates with overall retail sector health.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price can reflect broader risk sentiment, indirectly influenced by economic data.
• EURUSD – Global risk sentiment and USD strength, influenced by emerging market data like Mexico’s retail sales, affect this major currency pair.

FAQs

What does Mexico’s Retail Sales MoM indicate?

It measures the monthly change in consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth and inflationary pressures.

How does retail sales growth affect Banco de México’s policy?

Stronger retail sales may delay rate cuts as the central bank monitors inflation risks tied to consumer demand.

Why is the USDMXN exchange rate sensitive to retail sales data?

Retail sales reflect economic health, influencing investor sentiment and capital flows that impact the peso’s value.

Key takeaway: November’s 0.40% retail sales growth signals a resilient Mexican consumer sector, supporting a cautiously optimistic economic outlook despite ongoing monetary tightening and external risks.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

Updated 12/18/25