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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South AfricaSouth Africa Retail Sales MoM climbed to 2.5% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
South Africa Retail Sales MoM climbed to 2.5% in July 2026, released September 2026, up 3.3% from June's -0.8% reading. The print exceeded the 0.7% consensus by 1.8%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.15%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales MoM averaged -0.25%, vs 0.0% in the prior 3-month window. Retail Sales MoM is now the highest in 37 months.
Latest Release
2.5
Actual
0.7
Consensus
-0.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.07 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -0.65
Actual: -0.6
Error: -0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| USD/ZAR | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales MoM (South Africa) was reported at 2.5% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.7% by 1.8%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.28%, ranging from -1.2% to 2.1% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.13%, down from the prior three at 0.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.9%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.8%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales MoM has averaged 0.33%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.07%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Sep 23) and Inflation Rate YoY (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Retail Sales MoM - ZA
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About Retail Sales MoM — South Africa
DEFINITION
Retail Sales MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retail stores in a given month compared to the previous month. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic growth, making it a crucial tool for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive MoM growth in retail sales indicates a strong consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a slowdown in economic activity. Retail Sales MoM is widely used to assess the health of the retail sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 2.5 %, consensus 0.7 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -0.6 %. Before that (May 2026): 0.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.60) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - ZA Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:05 | ZA | Inflation Expectations | 4 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.20 | Low |
| 08:00 | ZA | Inflation Expectations | 4 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.20 | Low |
| 11:00 | ZA | Retail Sales MoM | 2.5 | -0.8 | 0.7 | 1.63 | Low |
| 11:00 | ZA | Retail Sales YoY | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.68 | Low |
| Thursday, September 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | ZA | Consumer Confidence | -19 | -20 | -20.00 | Low | |