Greece’s Current Account for December 2025: Deficit Widens Sharply, Underscoring External Vulnerabilities
Greece’s current account for December 2025 posted a deficit of -2.08 billion EUR, according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database. This marks a significant deterioration from November’s -1.09 billion EUR shortfall and comes in worse than consensus estimates of -3.40 billion EUR. The December reading highlights ongoing external pressures and raises questions about the sustainability of Greece’s recent economic momentum.
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
Greece’s current account deficit for December 2025 widened to -2.08B EUR, compared to -1.09B EUR in November and -0.41B EUR in October. This marks the largest monthly deficit since May 2025 (-2.99B EUR) and stands well below the 12-month average of -0.95B EUR. Year-over-year, the December 2025 figure is notably weaker than December 2024, when the deficit was -0.92B EUR.
Drivers this month
- Goods trade deficit expanded, reflecting higher energy imports and softer export volumes.
- Services surplus narrowed, as tourism receipts fell seasonally and shipping revenues moderated.
- Primary income outflows increased, driven by higher dividend and interest payments abroad.
Policy pulse
The Bank of Greece remains cautious, as the current account deficit’s size complicates monetary normalization. The reading sits well above the medium-term comfort zone, raising the risk of renewed external financing strains if global conditions tighten.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: EUR/GBP dipped 0.1% and Greek 10-year yields rose 4 bps within the first hour after the release, reflecting investor unease over Greece’s external position. The Athens Stock Exchange General Index (ASE) was little changed, while credit default swap spreads widened modestly.
Foundational Indicators
December’s current account print of -2.08B EUR follows a trend of deepening deficits in recent months. November registered -1.09B EUR, October was -0.41B EUR, and September saw a rare surplus of 0.94B EUR. The 12-month rolling average now stands at -0.95B EUR, with the last surplus recorded in October 2025 (1.10B EUR).
Drivers this month
- Energy imports rose 8% month-on-month, reflecting both price and volume effects.
- Tourism receipts fell 18% from November, in line with seasonal patterns but below expectations.
- Shipping revenues, a key Greek export, declined 6% month-on-month.
Policy pulse
Fiscal policy remains expansionary, with government spending supporting domestic demand but contributing to import growth. The government’s 2026 budget projects a gradual narrowing of the deficit, but external imbalances remain a concern for policymakers and international creditors.
Market lens
Greek banks’ shares underperformed regional peers following the data, as investors reassessed the risk of renewed funding pressures. The EUR/USD exchange rate was little changed, but forward rates now price in a higher risk premium for Greek assets.
Chart Dynamics
Drivers this month
- Goods imports outpaced exports by 1.4B EUR, the widest gap since May.
- Net services income fell by 0.3B EUR, led by weaker tourism and shipping.
- Primary income outflows rose 0.2B EUR, reflecting higher profit repatriation.
Policy pulse
The Bank of Greece may delay tightening or signal caution in forward guidance, as external imbalances complicate the inflation-growth tradeoff. Fiscal authorities face pressure to curb spending or incentivize export growth.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: EUR/GBP slipped 0.1%, Greek 10-year yields up 4 bps. The ASE index was flat, but Greek CDS spreads widened 3 bps, reflecting increased perceived risk.
Forward Outlook
Looking ahead, the current account is likely to remain under pressure through Q1 2026. Seasonal improvement is expected from April as tourism picks up, but structural deficits in goods trade and income flows persist. Upside risks include a rebound in global demand and lower energy prices, while downside risks stem from geopolitical shocks, tighter global financial conditions, and weaker euro area growth.
Scenario analysis
- Bullish (20%): Tourism and shipping rebound strongly in spring, narrowing the deficit to -0.5B EUR/month by May 2026.
- Base case (60%): Deficit averages -1.2B EUR/month in H1 2026, with gradual improvement as services recover.
- Bearish (20%): Energy prices spike or euro area demand falters, pushing the deficit below -2.5B EUR/month and raising funding risks.
Policy pulse
Authorities may prioritize export competitiveness and fiscal restraint. The Bank of Greece is likely to maintain a cautious stance, monitoring external funding conditions closely.
Market lens
Greek sovereign spreads could widen further if deficits persist, with the EUR/GBP and EUR/USD exchange rates vulnerable to renewed volatility. Equity and bank valuations may come under pressure if external risks materialize.
Closing Thoughts
December’s sharp widening of Greece’s current account deficit highlights persistent external vulnerabilities and the need for policy vigilance. While seasonal factors explain part of the deterioration, the underlying trend remains concerning. Policymakers face a delicate balancing act between supporting growth and ensuring external sustainability. Markets will closely watch upcoming data and policy signals for signs of stabilization or further stress.
Key Markets Likely to React to Current Account
The following tradable symbols are historically sensitive to Greece’s current account dynamics, reflecting their exposure to Greek economic and financial conditions. Each is presented in red and linked to its Sigmanomics page:
- ALPHA – Greek bank shares often react to external imbalances due to funding and credit risk sensitivity.
- OPAP – Consumer-facing Greek stocks can be impacted by shifts in domestic demand and investor sentiment.
- EURGBP – The euro’s performance against the pound reflects broader euro area risk, with Greek data a contributing factor.
- EURUSD – The euro-dollar pair is sensitive to euro area current account trends and risk perceptions.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin can serve as a risk barometer, sometimes moving inversely to euro area stress events.
| Year | Current Account (EUR B) | ALPHA Price (EUR) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -10.5 | 0.65 |
| 2021 | -8.2 | 1.10 |
| 2022 | -9.7 | 0.92 |
| 2023 | -7.3 | 1.28 |
| 2024 | -6.1 | 1.45 |
| 2025 | -11.4 | 1.05 |
ALPHA’s share price has historically tracked Greece’s current account balance, with deficits often coinciding with weaker bank valuations. The 2025 deterioration aligns with a pullback in ALPHA, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to external imbalances.
Frequently Asked Questions
A1: The -2.08B EUR deficit signals renewed external pressures, raising risk for Greek assets and the euro if the trend persists.
Q2: How does the current account affect Greek financial markets?
A2: Persistent deficits can pressure Greek bank shares, widen sovereign spreads, and weigh on the euro, especially versus the pound and dollar.
Q3: What are the main risks and opportunities highlighted in this report?
A3: Downside risks include energy shocks and weaker exports; upside potential lies in tourism and services recovery in spring 2026.
Bottom line: Greece’s December 2025 current account deficit highlights ongoing external risks. Investors should monitor upcoming data and policy responses for signs of stabilization.
- Sigmanomics database, Greece Current Account, released January 20, 2026.
- Bank of Greece, Monthly Balance of Payments Reports, 2025–2026.
- Hellenic Statistical Authority, External Sector Data, 2025–2026.
December’s current account deficit (-2.08B EUR) sharply exceeded November’s (-1.09B EUR) and the 12-month average (-0.95B EUR). The chart below illustrates a clear reversal from the September-October surplus trend, with the deficit deepening over the last two months. Notably, the December figure is the second-worst monthly reading of 2025, surpassed only by May’s -2.99B EUR.
Compared to the same period last year (December 2024: -0.92B EUR), the current account has deteriorated by more than 1.1B EUR, underscoring persistent external vulnerabilities. The seasonal pattern—deficits widening in winter as tourism wanes—remains intact, but the magnitude of the shortfall is concerning.