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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Hong KongHong Kong Business Confidence climbed to -4.0% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Hong Kong Business Confidence climbed to -4.0% in July 2026, up 1.0% from June's -5.0% reading. The reading matched the -4.0% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -0.5%.
Latest Release
-4
Actual
-4
Consensus
-5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.25 percentage points
across last 10 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -4
Actual: -4
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Hong Kong) was reported at -4% in July 2026. This matched the market consensus of -4% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of -5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -4.67%, up from the prior three at -7.33%. In July readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged -4.33%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch). Over the last 10 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.25%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Business Confidence - HK
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About Business Confidence — Hong Kong
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -4 %, consensus -4 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -5 %. Before that (Oct 2025): -2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - HK Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | HK | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 5.28 | Low |
| 08:30 | HK | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 5.28 | Low |