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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Hong KongHong Kong Business Confidence fell to -5.0% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased April 2026
Hong Kong Business Confidence fell to -5.0% in April 2026, down 2.0% from March's -3.0% reading. The reading missed the 1.0% consensus by 6.0%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.42%. Business Confidence is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
-5
Actual
1
Consensus
-3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5 percentage points
across last 9 releases
Last Call
Oct 2025
Predicted: -5
Actual: -2
Error: -3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Hong Kong) was reported at -5% in April 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1% by 6%. The reading fell from the previous value of -3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2025.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -6.33, down from the prior three at -4.67. In October readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged 1.00.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch). Over the last 9 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 5.00.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 17, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2025.
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Business Confidence - HK
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About Business Confidence — Hong Kong
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -5, consensus 1. Prior reading (Oct 2025): -2. Before that (Jul 2025): -8.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.