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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Hong KongHong Kong CPI fell to 1.1% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased February 2026
Hong Kong CPI fell to 1.1% in January 2026, released February 2026, down 0.3% from December's 1.4% reading. The print came in cooler than the 1.2% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.79%. Over the past 3 months, CPI averaged 0.7%, vs 0.47% in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
1.1
Actual
1.2
Consensus
1.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.4 percentage points
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Feb 2026
Predicted: 1.2
Actual: 1.1
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| USD/HKD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI (Hong Kong) was reported at 1.1% in February 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.2% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through February 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.73%, ranging from -0.3% to 1.4% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.17%, up from the prior three at 0.4%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/HKD, negatively correlated (Bearish USD).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2026.
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CPI - HK
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About CPI — Hong Kong
DEFINITION
CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is a widely used economic indicator that measures the average change in prices of goods and services purchased by households. It is an important tool for assessing inflation and the overall cost of living for consumers. The CPI is calculated by tracking the prices of a basket of goods and services over time, providing valuable insights into the current state of the economy and its impact on consumers. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions about economic trends and financial strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 0.2 %. Prior reading (Nov 2025): 1.2 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 1.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.