Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate QoQ: November 2025 Analysis and Outlook
Key Takeaways: Hong Kong’s latest GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 came in at 0.70%, matching expectations and marking a modest acceleration from the previous quarter’s 0.40%. This rebound follows a period of contraction earlier in the year, reflecting resilience amid external shocks and cautious optimism in financial markets. Monetary policy remains accommodative, while fiscal measures continue to support growth. However, geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties pose downside risks. Forward-looking scenarios suggest a balanced outlook with potential for moderate expansion if external conditions stabilize.
Table of Contents
Hong Kong’s economy expanded by 0.70% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database. This figure aligns with market consensus and marks an improvement from the 0.40% growth recorded in Q2 2025. The growth rate is positive but modest, reflecting ongoing recovery from a sharp contraction of -1.10% in late 2024. Over the past year, Hong Kong’s GDP has shown volatility amid shifting global trade dynamics and domestic policy adjustments.
Drivers this month
- Export services rebounded, contributing approximately 0.30 percentage points (pp) to growth.
- Domestic consumption improved, adding 0.20 pp amid easing COVID-19 restrictions.
- Investment in infrastructure projects supported by government spending added 0.10 pp.
- Trade tensions and supply chain disruptions limited further upside.
Policy pulse
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has maintained an accommodative stance, keeping interest rates steady to support growth. Inflation remains contained near 2%, within the HKMA’s comfort zone, allowing room for continued monetary support without overheating risks.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The HKD remained stable against the USD, while the Hang Seng Index edged up 0.40% in early trading, reflecting cautious investor optimism. Short-term bond yields held steady, signaling balanced sentiment.
Core macroeconomic indicators underpinning the GDP growth reveal a mixed but improving picture. Retail sales volumes rose 1.50% QoQ, supported by tourism recovery and local demand. Industrial production increased by 0.80%, driven by electronics and logistics sectors. Unemployment edged down to 3.20%, the lowest in 18 months, signaling labor market tightening.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The HKMA’s policy rate remains at 2.25%, unchanged since mid-2024. Liquidity conditions are ample, with the currency peg to the USD providing stability. Credit growth has accelerated modestly at 4.50% YoY, supporting business investment and consumer spending.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal stimulus continues through targeted infrastructure spending and social welfare programs. The 2025/26 budget projects a deficit of 1.20% of GDP, reflecting ongoing support for economic recovery. Public investment in transport and technology sectors is expected to boost medium-term growth.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Trade tensions between the US and China remain a key risk, with potential tariff escalations threatening export growth. Regional geopolitical uncertainties, including tensions in the South China Sea, add to investor caution. Global inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions also weigh on outlook.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Hang Seng Index rose 0.40% following the release, while the HKD/USD pair held steady near 7.85. Short-term government bond yields remained flat, reflecting a balanced market view on growth prospects and inflation risks.
This chart signals a steady recovery trajectory for Hong Kong’s economy, reversing the sharp downturn of late 2024. The growth rate is trending upward, supported by improving domestic demand and stable external conditions. Investors should watch for potential volatility from geopolitical developments.
Looking ahead, Hong Kong’s GDP growth faces a mix of opportunities and risks. The base case scenario projects continued moderate growth of 0.50–1.00% QoQ over the next two quarters, assuming stable global trade and effective pandemic management. Bullish outcomes (30% probability) could see growth accelerate above 1.20% if export demand surges and fiscal stimulus is expanded. Conversely, a bearish scenario (20% probability) involves renewed geopolitical tensions or global recession risks, potentially pushing growth below 0.20% or into contraction.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Hong Kong’s long-term growth is shaped by its role as a global financial hub and gateway to China. Structural reforms aimed at innovation, technology adoption, and green finance are expected to enhance productivity. However, demographic challenges and regional competition remain headwinds.
Policy pulse
Monetary policy is likely to remain accommodative through 2026, with the HKMA balancing inflation control and growth support. Fiscal policy may shift towards more targeted investments in technology and infrastructure to sustain competitiveness.
Market lens
Financial markets will closely monitor US-China relations and global economic signals. The Hang Seng Index and HKD currency stability will serve as barometers for investor confidence in Hong Kong’s growth trajectory.
Hong Kong’s latest GDP growth rate of 0.70% QoQ signals a cautious but clear recovery from recent downturns. While external risks remain, supportive monetary and fiscal policies provide a solid foundation. Investors and policymakers should remain vigilant to geopolitical developments and global economic shifts that could alter the outlook. Overall, the data from the Sigmanomics database suggests a resilient economy poised for moderate expansion in the near term.
Key Markets Likely to React to GDP Growth Rate QoQ
Hong Kong’s GDP growth rate influences a range of financial markets, from equities to currency pairs. The Hang Seng Index (HSI) typically tracks economic momentum closely, reflecting investor sentiment. The USD/HKD currency pair is sensitive to growth and monetary policy shifts. Regional equities like 0700.HK (Tencent) and currency pairs such as USDCNH respond to trade and geopolitical developments impacting Hong Kong. Additionally, crypto assets like BTCUSD may react to risk sentiment changes driven by economic data.
Indicator vs. Hang Seng Index (HSI) Since 2020
| Year | Avg GDP Growth QoQ (%) | HSI Annual Return (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -0.90 | -14.10 |
| 2021 | 1.20 | 7.80 |
| 2022 | 0.30 | -15.50 |
| 2023 | 0.50 | 5.20 |
| 2024 | 0.10 | -2.30 |
| 2025 (YTD) | 0.60 | 8.90 |
Insight: The correlation between Hong Kong’s GDP growth and HSI returns is positive but moderate, with stronger GDP quarters generally aligning with equity gains. This relationship underscores the importance of economic momentum for market performance.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the current GDP Growth Rate QoQ for Hong Kong?
- The latest GDP growth rate for Hong Kong is 0.70% quarter-on-quarter as of Q3 2025, indicating moderate economic expansion.
- How does Hong Kong’s GDP growth impact its currency?
- Stronger GDP growth tends to support the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) by reinforcing investor confidence and stabilizing monetary policy expectations.
- What are the main risks to Hong Kong’s economic growth?
- Key risks include geopolitical tensions, global trade disruptions, and potential shifts in US-China relations that could affect exports and investment.
Takeaway: Hong Kong’s economy is on a steady recovery path, with 0.70% QoQ GDP growth signaling resilience amid global uncertainties. Balanced policy support and cautious optimism define the near-term outlook.
0700.HK - Tencent Holdings, a major Hong Kong-listed stock sensitive to local economic growth and tech sector trends.
USDCNH - USD vs. Chinese Yuan offshore, reflecting trade and geopolitical dynamics impacting Hong Kong.
BTCUSD - Bitcoin priced in USD, often influenced by risk sentiment tied to economic data.
0005.HK - HSBC Holdings, a key financial sector stock linked to Hong Kong’s economic health.
HKDCNH - Hong Kong Dollar vs. Chinese Yuan offshore, a direct currency pair reflecting cross-border capital flows.
[1] Sigmanomics database, Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate QoQ, November 2025 release.
[2] Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Monetary Policy Reports, 2025.
[3] Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department, Economic Indicators, 2024-2025.
[4] Bloomberg, Market Data and Analysis, November 2025.
[5] IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2025.
The latest GDP growth rate of 0.70% QoQ compares favorably with the previous quarter’s 0.40% and exceeds the 12-month average of 0.30%. This marks a clear reversal from the contraction of -1.10% recorded in October and November 2024. The steady upward trend since early 2025 reflects gradual normalization of economic activity.
Sectoral contributions highlight a broad-based recovery, with services and manufacturing both posting gains. However, growth remains below the 2% peak seen in May 2025, indicating that momentum is steady but not accelerating sharply.