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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Hong KongHong Kong GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 4.3% in April 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased July 2026
Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 4.3% in April 2026, released July 2026, down 1.6% from March's 5.9% reading. The reading missed the 4.8% consensus by 0.5%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 3.8%. Over the past 3 months, GDP Growth Rate YoY averaged 5.9%, vs 3.8% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 85th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
4.3
Actual
4.8
Consensus
5.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 5.9
Actual: 5.9
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| USD/HKD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Hong Kong) was reported at 4.3% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4.8% by 0.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 5.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.03%, ranging from 3.1% to 5.9% across 6 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.5%, up from the prior three at 3.57%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.87%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.57%). In May readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 3.7%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - HK
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Hong Kong
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 4.3 %, consensus 4.8 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 5.9 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 5.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.55) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - HK Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | HK | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 5.28 | Low |
| 08:30 | HK | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 5.28 | Low |
| 08:30 | HK | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | -0.6 | 2.9 | -0.3 | -0.45 | Low |
| 08:30 | HK | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | -0.6 | 2.9 | -0.3 | 0.00 | Low |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:30 | HK | Retail Sales YoY | 4.8 | 3.4 | 6.40 | Low | |