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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Hong KongHong Kong GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 4.3% in April 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased August 2026
Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 4.3% in April 2026, released August 2026, down 1.6% from March's 5.9% reading. The reading matched the 4.3% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 3.96%. The reading is in the 82nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
4.3
Actual
4.3
Consensus
5.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.2 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 4.05
Actual: 4.3
Error: -0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.86 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Hong Kong) was reported at 4.3% in August 2026. This matched the market consensus of 4.3% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 5.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.24%, ranging from 3.8% to 5.9% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.83%, up from the prior three at 3.8%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.71%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.54%). In August readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 3.57%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.2%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - HK
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Hong Kong
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 4.3 %, consensus 4.3 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 4.3 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 5.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng, r=-0.86) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - HK Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | HK | Industrial Production YoY | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.40 | Low |