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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Hong KongHong Kong GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 5.9% in January 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased May 2026
Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 5.9% in January 2026, released May 2026, up 2.1% from December's 3.8% reading. The reading matched the 5.9% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 3.51%. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the highest in 54 months.
Latest Release
5.9
Actual
5.9
Consensus
3.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 5.9
Actual: 5.9
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| USD/HKD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Hong Kong) was reported at 5.9% in May 2026. This matched the market consensus of 5.9% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.9%, ranging from 3.1% to 5.9% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.5%, up from the prior three at 3.57%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.87%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.59%). In May readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 3.7%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - HK
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Hong Kong
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 5.9 %, consensus 5.9 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 5.9 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 3.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.55) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.