Hong Kong GDP YoY Growth: November 2025 Analysis and Outlook
Key takeaways: Hong Kong’s latest GDP YoY growth held steady at 3.80%, matching estimates and October’s print. This marks a sustained rebound from early 2025 lows near 2.40%. Monetary policy remains accommodative amid moderate inflation, while fiscal stimulus supports growth. External risks from geopolitical tensions and global supply chain disruptions persist. Financial markets show cautious optimism, with the HKD stable and bond yields steady. Structural shifts toward technology and services underpin long-term growth, but downside risks from China’s slowdown and global uncertainties remain. Bullish, base, and bearish scenarios range from 4.50% to 2.50% growth in 2026.
Table of Contents
Hong Kong’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) year-on-year growth for November 2025 was reported at 3.80%, unchanged from October and in line with market expectations, according to the Sigmanomics database. This figure reflects a steady economic expansion, building on a gradual recovery that began in early 2025 after a period of slower growth.
Drivers this month
- Strong service sector performance, especially finance and tourism, contributed approximately 1.50 percentage points.
- Manufacturing and exports added 0.80 percentage points, supported by demand from Southeast Asia.
- Domestic consumption remained resilient, contributing 1.00 percentage point despite inflationary pressures.
- Government infrastructure spending added 0.50 percentage points, reflecting ongoing fiscal stimulus.
Policy pulse
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has maintained an accommodative stance, keeping the base rate steady at 2.25%. Inflation remains moderate at 3.10% YoY, below the 3.50% target ceiling, allowing room for supportive monetary policy without overheating risks.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The HKD remained stable against the USD, with the USD/HKD pair holding near the 7.85 peg. Two-year government bond yields edged up slightly by 3 basis points, reflecting mild inflation expectations.
Examining core macroeconomic indicators alongside GDP growth provides a fuller picture of Hong Kong’s economic health. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.70%, near historic lows, signaling robust labor market conditions. Retail sales volumes increased 4.20% YoY, supporting consumer confidence. Inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 3.10%, a moderate pace that balances growth and price stability.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The HKMA’s policy rate has been unchanged for the past six months, reflecting a cautious approach amid global uncertainties. Credit growth remains moderate at 5.50% YoY, indicating steady lending activity without excessive risk-taking. The Hong Kong stock market (red 0005.HK) has shown resilience, with a 6% gain year-to-date, buoyed by financials and property sectors.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal stimulus continues to underpin growth, with the government allocating HKD 50 billion toward infrastructure and social programs in the current fiscal year. The budget deficit narrowed to 1.20% of GDP, down from 1.80% last year, reflecting improved revenue collection and controlled spending.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Hong Kong faces ongoing risks from geopolitical tensions in the Asia-Pacific region and trade frictions between China and the US. Supply chain disruptions have moderated but remain a concern for export-oriented industries. The city’s economic linkage with mainland China means that any slowdown there could dampen Hong Kong’s growth prospects.
Drivers this month
- Services sector growth: 1.50 pp
- Exports and manufacturing: 0.80 pp
- Domestic consumption: 1.00 pp
- Government spending: 0.50 pp
Policy pulse
Monetary policy remains accommodative, with the HKMA signaling no immediate rate hikes. Inflation remains within manageable bounds, supporting steady real growth.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Hang Seng Index (HKHSI) rose 0.70% within the first hour post-release, reflecting investor confidence in the growth trajectory. The USD/HKD pair remained stable, while two-year government bond yields ticked up slightly.
This chart highlights Hong Kong’s GDP growth trending upward, reversing the early 2025 slowdown. The steady 3.80% print suggests resilience amid external headwinds and ongoing fiscal support, indicating a solid foundation for continued expansion.
Looking ahead, Hong Kong’s GDP growth faces a mix of supportive and challenging factors. The baseline forecast anticipates growth around 3.50% to 4.00% in 2026, supported by stable domestic demand and government investment. However, risks from global trade tensions and potential tightening of monetary policy abroad could weigh on exports and capital flows.
Scenario analysis
- Bullish (30% probability): Growth accelerates to 4.50% driven by a rebound in tourism and stronger mainland China demand.
- Base (50% probability): Growth holds steady near 3.80%, supported by balanced domestic and external factors.
- Bearish (20% probability): Growth slows to 2.50% due to renewed geopolitical tensions and tighter global financial conditions.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Hong Kong’s economy is increasingly shifting toward technology, financial services, and innovation-driven sectors. This structural transformation supports sustainable growth but requires ongoing investment in skills and infrastructure. Demographic challenges and housing affordability remain long-term concerns that could constrain growth potential.
Hong Kong’s steady 3.80% GDP YoY growth in November 2025 reflects a resilient economy navigating complex global and regional dynamics. While monetary and fiscal policies remain supportive, external risks and structural challenges warrant close monitoring. The city’s strategic position as a financial hub and gateway to China underpins its growth prospects, but diversification and innovation will be key to sustaining momentum.
Key Markets Likely to React to Gross Domestic Product YoY
Hong Kong’s GDP growth data typically influences equity, currency, and bond markets. Investors track these indicators closely to gauge economic momentum and policy direction. The following tradable symbols historically correlate with Hong Kong’s GDP trends and offer insight into market sentiment:
- 0005.HK – A major Hong Kong bank, sensitive to economic growth and interest rate changes.
- HKHSI – The Hang Seng Index, reflecting overall market sentiment tied to GDP performance.
- USDHKD – The Hong Kong dollar’s peg to the USD, influenced by economic fundamentals and capital flows.
- USDCNH – Offshore Chinese yuan, linked to Hong Kong’s trade and financial integration with China.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often viewed as a risk sentiment barometer, reacts to macroeconomic shifts including growth data.
Insight: Hong Kong GDP vs. Hang Seng Index Since 2020
Since 2020, Hong Kong’s GDP growth and the Hang Seng Index have shown a positive correlation, particularly during recovery phases post-pandemic. Periods of GDP acceleration, such as mid-2021 and late 2025, coincide with strong equity market rallies. Conversely, geopolitical shocks and global downturns have dampened both metrics, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to economic fundamentals.
FAQs
- What is the current GDP YoY growth rate for Hong Kong?
- The latest GDP YoY growth rate for Hong Kong is 3.80% as of November 2025.
- How does Hong Kong’s GDP growth compare historically?
- Growth has improved from a low of 2.40% in early 2025 to a steady 3.80%, above the 12-month average of 3.10%.
- What are the main risks to Hong Kong’s economic outlook?
- Key risks include geopolitical tensions, global trade disruptions, and potential tightening of global financial conditions.
Takeaway: Hong Kong’s economy shows steady growth supported by balanced domestic demand and fiscal stimulus, but external risks require vigilance.
The latest GDP YoY growth of 3.80% matches October’s reading and surpasses the 12-month average of 3.10%, signaling a sustained recovery phase. This steady growth contrasts with the 2.40% low recorded in February 2025, marking a 1.40 percentage point improvement over nine months.
Monthly data trends show consistent contributions from services and government spending, while exports have rebounded moderately after a mid-year dip. Inflation-adjusted GDP growth remains positive, supporting real income gains and consumption.