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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Hong KongHong Kong Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 4.3% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Hong Kong Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 4.3% in April 2026, released July 2026, down 1.6% from March's 5.9% reading. The reading missed the 4.8% consensus by 0.5%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 3.98%. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product YoY averaged 5.9%, vs 3.8% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 85th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
4.3
Actual
4.8
Consensus
5.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 8 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 5.9
Actual: 5.9
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Hong Kong) was reported at 4.3% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4.8% by 0.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 5.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.89%, ranging from 3.1% to 5.9% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.5%, up from the prior three at 3.8%. In May readings over the past 3 years, Gross Domestic Product YoY has averaged 4.03%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with Nikkei 225, negatively correlated (Bearish Nikkei 225). Over the last 8 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - HK
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Hong Kong
DEFINITION
Hong Kong's Gross Domestic Product YoY came in at 4.300000% for June, missing the 4.800000% estimate and down from May's 5.900000%. The slowdown marks a notable deceleration in annual growth, reflecting easing momentum after a strong rebound. Market focus now shifts to upcoming policy signals amid this cooling trend. Updated 7/31/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 4.3 %, consensus 4.8 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 5.9 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 5.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.62) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - HK Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | HK | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 5.28 | Low |
| 08:30 | HK | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 5.28 | Low |