Hong Kong Inflation Rate MoM: November 2025 Analysis and Macro Outlook
Key takeaways: Hong Kong’s November 2025 inflation rate rose 0.30% MoM, beating the 0.20% estimate and doubling October’s 0.10%. This marks a rebound from mid-year dips and signals renewed price pressures. Core drivers include rising housing and food costs amid stable wage growth. Monetary policy remains cautious as inflation edges above target. External risks from global supply chains and geopolitical tensions persist. Financial markets showed mild volatility post-release, with the HKD holding steady. Structural trends suggest inflation volatility will continue amid evolving fiscal stimulus and external shocks.
Table of Contents
Hong Kong’s inflation rate on a month-over-month basis rose by 0.30% in November 2025, according to the latest data from the Sigmanomics database. This figure surpasses the market consensus of 0.20% and doubles the previous month’s 0.10% increase. The inflation rate has shown notable volatility over the past year, with dips into negative territory mid-2025 and a recent upward trend since August.
Drivers this month
- Housing costs contributed approximately 0.12 percentage points, reflecting rising rents and property-related expenses.
- Food prices added 0.08 percentage points, driven by supply chain disruptions and seasonal demand.
- Transportation and energy costs combined added 0.05 percentage points, influenced by global oil price fluctuations.
- Core services inflation remained steady, supporting overall price stability.
Policy pulse
The 0.30% MoM inflation rate slightly exceeds the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s implicit target range, signaling mild upward pressure on prices. The HKMA is expected to maintain a cautious stance, balancing inflation containment with economic growth support amid external uncertainties.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The HKD/USD pair remained stable within a narrow 0.10% range in the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields edged up by 5 basis points, reflecting modest inflation risk repricing.
Examining core macroeconomic indicators alongside inflation provides a fuller picture of Hong Kong’s economic health. The latest GDP growth estimate for Q3 2025 stands at 2.10% YoY, showing moderate expansion. Unemployment remains low at 3.40%, supporting wage growth and consumer spending.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The HKMA continues to peg the Hong Kong dollar to the US dollar, limiting independent monetary policy maneuvering. Interest rates have remained steady, with the base rate at 2.25%. Financial conditions are moderately accommodative, though rising global rates and tightening liquidity pose risks.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Hong Kong’s fiscal stance remains prudent, with a budget surplus projected at 1.50% of GDP for FY2025-26. Targeted stimulus measures focus on housing affordability and innovation sectors, indirectly influencing inflation dynamics through demand-side effects.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global supply chain disruptions, particularly in electronics and food imports, continue to pressure prices. Geopolitical tensions in the Asia-Pacific region add uncertainty, potentially affecting trade flows and investor confidence.
Drivers this month
- Housing inflation surged to 0.12%, the highest monthly contribution since September 2025.
- Food inflation rose 0.08%, partly due to imported goods cost increases.
- Energy prices stabilized but remain elevated compared to early 2025.
This chart highlights a clear upward trend in Hong Kong’s inflation rate since mid-2025, reversing earlier declines. The acceleration signals renewed inflationary pressures that may influence monetary policy and market expectations in the near term.
Policy pulse
The inflation print exceeds the HKMA’s comfort zone, suggesting potential tightening signals if the trend persists. However, the peg to the USD limits direct rate adjustments, placing emphasis on fiscal and macroprudential tools.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Hang Seng Index (HSI) dipped 0.40% in the hour after the release, reflecting investor caution. The HKD remained stable, while short-term bond yields rose modestly, pricing in inflation risk.
Looking ahead, Hong Kong’s inflation trajectory depends on several key factors. Supply chain normalization and easing geopolitical tensions could moderate price pressures. Conversely, sustained wage growth and fiscal stimulus may fuel further inflation.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
Inflation moderates to 0.10% MoM by Q1 2026 as supply constraints ease and global commodity prices stabilize. Monetary policy remains accommodative, supporting growth without overheating.
Base scenario (60% probability)
Inflation hovers around 0.25%-0.35% MoM through early 2026, driven by steady housing costs and moderate food price increases. The HKMA maintains current policy, balancing inflation and growth.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
Inflation accelerates above 0.50% MoM due to renewed supply shocks or wage pressures. This triggers tighter financial conditions and market volatility, challenging policymakers.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Hong Kong’s inflation remains sensitive to external shocks and domestic housing market dynamics. Long-run trends point to moderate inflation volatility, with structural reforms in housing and supply chains critical to stability.
The November 2025 inflation rate MoM of 0.30% signals a notable rebound in Hong Kong’s price pressures. While still moderate by historical standards, the acceleration warrants close monitoring amid external uncertainties and limited monetary policy flexibility. Fiscal prudence and structural reforms will be key to managing inflation sustainably. Financial markets have priced in mild risks, but volatility could rise if inflation surprises persist.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate MoM
Hong Kong’s inflation data typically influences equity, currency, and bond markets. The Hang Seng Index (HSI) often reacts to inflation surprises through sector rotation. The Hong Kong dollar versus US dollar pair (HKDUUSD) remains sensitive to inflation-driven monetary expectations. Short-term government bonds (HKGB2Y) price inflation risk directly. Additionally, the USDCNH (USDCNH) pair reflects broader regional inflation and policy trends. Finally, the crypto asset Bitcoin (BTCUSD) occasionally reacts to inflation data as an inflation hedge proxy.
Inflation vs. Hang Seng Index (HSI) Since 2020
Since 2020, Hong Kong’s monthly inflation rate and the Hang Seng Index have shown intermittent correlation. Periods of rising inflation often coincide with market volatility, especially in real estate and consumer sectors. The HSI tends to dip following inflation spikes above 0.30% MoM, reflecting investor concerns over cost pressures and policy tightening. This relationship underscores the importance of inflation monitoring for equity market participants.
FAQs
- What is the latest Hong Kong inflation rate MoM?
- The latest inflation rate for Hong Kong in November 2025 is 0.30% month-over-month, up from 0.10% in October.
- How does this inflation reading compare historically?
- This is above the 12-month average of 0.12% and marks a rebound from mid-2025 lows of -0.30%.
- What are the macro implications of rising inflation in Hong Kong?
- Rising inflation pressures may prompt cautious monetary policy and impact financial markets, especially housing and consumer sectors.
Takeaway: Hong Kong’s inflation rebound to 0.30% MoM in November 2025 signals renewed price pressures amid external and domestic challenges, requiring vigilant policy and market attention.
Author
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
HSI - Hang Seng Index, key equity market sensitive to inflation and policy shifts.
HKDUUSD - Hong Kong Dollar to US Dollar, reflects currency stability amid inflation changes.
HKGB2Y - Hong Kong 2-Year Government Bonds, price inflation risk and monetary expectations.
USDCNH - US Dollar to Chinese Yuan Offshore, regional inflation and policy proxy.
BTCUSD - Bitcoin to US Dollar, alternative inflation hedge and market sentiment indicator.
The November 2025 inflation rate of 0.30% MoM marks a clear acceleration from October’s 0.10% and exceeds the 12-month average of 0.12%. This rebound follows a mid-year trough in June 2025, when inflation dipped to -0.30%, the lowest in the past 12 months.
Monthly inflation has fluctuated between -0.30% and 0.60% over the past year, reflecting volatile supply-side factors and shifting domestic demand. The recent upward trend suggests mounting price pressures, particularly in housing and food sectors.