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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Hong KongHong Kong Inflation Rate YoY held to 1.7% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Hong Kong Inflation Rate YoY held to 1.7% in April 2026, released May 2026. The print came in cooler than the 2.6% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.4%. Inflation Rate YoY is now the highest in 10 months.
Latest Release
1.7
Actual
2.6
Consensus
1.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.16 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 2.58
Actual: 1.7
Error: +0.88
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate YoY (Hong Kong) was reported at 1.7% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.6% by 0.9%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.34%, ranging from 1% to 1.9% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.5%, up from the prior three at 1.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.3%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.45%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Inflation Rate YoY has averaged 1.6%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.16%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 23, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Inflation Rate YoY - HK
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About Inflation Rate YoY — Hong Kong
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the overall price level of goods and services over a 12-month period. It is a key measure of inflation and is used by economists and policymakers to monitor the health of an economy and make informed decisions regarding monetary policy. A higher inflation rate can indicate a growing economy, but if it rises too quickly, it can lead to negative effects such as decreased purchasing power and higher interest rates. Conversely, a lower inflation rate can signal a slowing economy, but if it falls too low, it can lead to deflation and potential economic instability. The Inflation Rate YoY is an important tool for understanding and managing the impact of price changes on the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 1.7 %, consensus 2.6 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 1.7 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 1.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.