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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Hong KongHong Kong Interest Rate Decision fell to 4.0% in December 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased December 2025
Hong Kong Interest Rate Decision fell to 4.0% in December 2025, down 0.25% from November's 4.25% reading. The reading matched the 4.0% consensus. Interest Rate Decision has now declined for 7 consecutive months. Interest Rate Decision is now the lowest in 37 months.
Latest Release
4
Actual
4
Consensus
4.25
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 4 releases
Last Call
Dec 2025
Predicted: 4
Actual: 4
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Interest Rate Decision (Hong Kong) was reported at 4% in December 2025. This matched the market consensus of 4% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.25%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through December 2025.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 4.25%, down from the prior three at 5%. In December readings over the past 3 years, Interest Rate Decision has averaged 4.83%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update December 2025.
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Interest Rate Decision - HK
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About Interest Rate Decision — Hong Kong
DEFINITION
The Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the decision made by a central bank or monetary authority to either increase, decrease, or maintain the current interest rates. This decision has a significant impact on the economy, as it affects the cost of borrowing money, inflation rates, and overall economic growth. Investors and businesses closely monitor interest rate decisions as they can have a significant impact on financial markets and investment strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Dec 2025): actual 4 %, consensus 4 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 4.25 %. Before that (Sep 2025): 4.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.