Hungary’s current account posted a surplus of 1.39 billion HUF in September 2025, surpassing the consensus estimate of 0.80 billion HUF and improving from 1.14 billion HUF in June 2025. This marks a continuation of the positive trajectory observed since mid-2024, when the current account swung from deficits to sustained surpluses. The Sigmanomics database confirms this as the highest reading since September 2024’s 1.95 billion HUF peak.

Drivers this month

• Robust export growth, particularly in automotive and electronics sectors
• Moderate import growth, reflecting cautious domestic demand
• Improved terms of trade due to stable commodity prices

Policy pulse

The current account surplus aligns with the National Bank of Hungary’s (NBH) tightening monetary stance aimed at curbing inflation. The NBH’s base rate remains elevated at 13.00%, supporting the forint and dampening import-driven inflationary pressures.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The HUF appreciated 0.30% against the EUR within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields edged down by 5 basis points, reflecting improved external balance confidence.

Hungary’s current account surplus of 1.39 billion HUF in September 2025 contrasts sharply with the negative balance of -0.77 billion HUF recorded in June 2023. The 12-month average surplus now stands at approximately 0.95 billion HUF, underscoring a structural improvement in external balances over the past two years.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The NBH’s restrictive monetary policy has helped stabilize the forint and contain inflation, which stood at 7.10% YoY in August 2025, down from a peak of 13.70% in late 2023. Financial conditions remain tight, with credit growth slowing to 3.20% YoY, supporting subdued import demand and contributing to the current account surplus.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal consolidation efforts have reduced the general government deficit to 2.80% of GDP in H1 2025, down from 4.10% in 2023. This has limited external borrowing needs and improved investor confidence, indirectly supporting the current account by stabilizing capital flows.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Hungary remains exposed to regional geopolitical tensions and energy price volatility. However, recent EU energy diversification initiatives and stable gas prices have mitigated adverse impacts on the trade balance. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to pose downside risks to export markets.

Drivers this month

• Export growth in machinery and automotive: 7.20% YoY
• Services surplus up 4.80% YoY, led by IT and tourism
• Moderate import growth at 3.10% YoY, reflecting cautious domestic consumption

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The HUF strengthened against the EUR and USD, with EUR/HUF down 0.30% and USD/HUF down 0.40% within the first hour. Sovereign bond yields declined slightly, reflecting improved external balance sentiment.

Looking ahead, Hungary’s current account surplus is expected to remain robust but subject to external and domestic risks. The Sigmanomics database suggests three scenarios for the next 12 months:

Scenario Analysis

• Bullish (30% probability): Surplus expands to 1.80–2.00 billion HUF, driven by stronger EU fund absorption, export diversification, and stable commodity prices.
• Base (50% probability): Surplus holds near 1.30–1.50 billion HUF, supported by steady export growth and moderate import demand amid cautious global growth.
• Bearish (20% probability): Surplus narrows to below 1.00 billion HUF due to renewed geopolitical tensions, energy price shocks, or a slowdown in EU demand.

Structural & Long-Run Trends

Hungary’s gradual shift towards higher value-added exports and services is strengthening its external position. EU cohesion funds and foreign direct investment inflows remain critical for sustaining this trend. However, demographic challenges and energy dependency pose long-term risks to external balance stability.

Hungary’s current account surplus of 1.39 billion HUF in September 2025 confirms a positive external balance trajectory. Supported by tight monetary policy, fiscal discipline, and resilient exports, the surplus enhances macroeconomic stability. However, vigilance is warranted given geopolitical risks and global financial market volatility. Policymakers should continue fostering export diversification and energy security to sustain this momentum.

Key Markets Likely to React to Current Account

The current account balance is a crucial indicator for Hungary’s currency, bond, and equity markets. Movements in the forint and sovereign yields often reflect shifts in external balances. Additionally, export-oriented stocks and regional currency pairs respond to changes in trade dynamics and investor sentiment.

• EURHUF: Tracks Hungary’s currency strength versus the euro, sensitive to current account shifts.
• MOL: Hungary’s leading energy stock, impacted by energy import costs and trade balance.
• MTELEKOM: Reflects domestic economic activity and export service sector health.
• USDHUF: Measures forint strength against the dollar, sensitive to global risk sentiment.
• BTCUSD: A proxy for global risk appetite, indirectly influencing capital flows to Hungary.

Extras: Current Account vs. EURHUF Since 2020

Since 2020, Hungary’s current account surplus has shown a strong inverse correlation with EURHUF exchange rate fluctuations. Periods of rising surpluses coincide with HUF appreciation against the euro, as external balance improvements boost investor confidence. For example, the surge from mid-2024 to late 2024 in the current account surplus corresponded with a 5% strengthening of the HUF versus EUR. This relationship underscores the current account’s role as a key driver of currency valuation in Hungary.

FAQs

What is the significance of Hungary’s current account surplus?

The current account surplus indicates Hungary exports more goods, services, and capital than it imports, strengthening the currency and reducing external vulnerabilities.

How does the current account affect Hungary’s monetary policy?

A strong current account surplus supports the forint and allows the National Bank of Hungary to maintain tighter monetary policy without excessive currency depreciation.

What are the risks to Hungary’s current account outlook?

Risks include geopolitical tensions, energy price shocks, and slower EU demand, which could reduce export growth and narrow the surplus.

Takeaway: Hungary’s current account surplus is on a firm upward path, bolstered by export strength and prudent policies, but remains vulnerable to external shocks.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.